Latest News Stream - Bonds

South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield hovered around 8.41%, close to its lowest since early July, supported by improving global risk sentiment. Oil prices extended their decline amid growing optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement, which helped to ease some inflation concerns. Domestically, November’s fuel levy relief is expected to provide some support to households and businesses by lowering fuel costs and containing near-term inflation. However, the sustainability of this relief will depend largely on international oil price movements in the coming months. Demand for domestic debt remains underpinned by attractive yields, improving fiscal prospects, credible monetary policy and ongoing structural reforms. Meanwhile, the latest municipal election results showed a significant decline in support for the ruling ANC, while the DA made modest gains. The outcome underscored a more fragmented political landscape, increasing uncertainty around coalition stability.

France 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased to 4.70%, the lowest since September 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, France 10Y Bond Yield lost 19.70 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 128.68 basis points.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield edged higher toward 2.7% on Tuesday, moving away from four-month lows amid increasingly hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan. According to the latest Summary of Opinions, policymakers broadly agreed that interest rates should continue rising, as underlying inflation has reached levels generally consistent with the central bank’s 2% price stability target. Some members also advocated for a faster pace of monetary tightening to bring rates closer to neutral, citing businesses’ growing resilience to higher borrowing costs. BOJ Chief Economist Seisaku Kameda added on Monday that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates in December and continue tightening monetary policy next year. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures eased somewhat as oil prices extended their decline amid growing optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement.

China’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield traded near historical lows at around 1.59%, as robust foreign demand highlighted the economy's heavy reliance on external trade to drive growth. October exports expanded by 35.2% year-over-year to $412.33 billion, lifted by relentless global demand for AI-related technology equipment. Imports registered an even sharper gain, jumping 41.6% to $307.05 billion, marking the strongest rise in more than five years. China's year-to-date trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion for just the second time in history, positioning the nation to exceed last year’s record $1.2 trillion surplus. Still, the divergence between surging exports and subdued consumer spending remains a concern, keeping economic growth disproportionately dependent on external demand. Separately, the latest inflation data also point to persistent upstream cost pressures and subdued domestic demand, as higher input costs have yet to fully feed through to consumers.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed around 4.88% on Tuesday, holding near two-month lows as investors awaited the October CPI report, with both headline and core inflation expected to ease amid stabilizing energy prices. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Monday that the Federal Reserve should approach monetary policy adjustments “with care,” as persistent inflation remains its primary concern. Markets are currently pricing in an 84% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, up considerably from approximately 74% a week earlier following last week’s stronger-than-expected employment data. Meanwhile, inflationary concerns eased as oil prices extended their decline amid growing optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement. President Donald Trump expressed confidence that the conflict in Iran was nearing an end following discussions with Qatar’s prime minister.

Australia's 10-year government bond yield fell below 5%, hitting its lowest level in nearly three months as expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia has reached the end of its tightening cycle boosted demand for government debt. Last week's 6–3 split decision to raise the cash rate to an 18-year high of 4.85%, coupled with the removal of its tightening bias, reinforced expectations that borrowing costs have peaked. Interest rate swaps now imply an 80% probability that rates have reached their peak, with around 30 basis points of easing priced in by the end of next year. Meanwhile, weaker domestic business and consumer confidence added to concerns about economic growth amid elevated cost pressures and higher interest rates. Westpac's consumer sentiment index fell 2.7% to 78.2 in November, its lowest level in four years, while business confidence dropped to a six-year low in October, according to the NAB business survey.

France’s 10-year OAT yield fell below 4.7%, its lowest level since September 23, as declining oil prices eased inflationary concerns and prompted traders to scale back expectations for further central bank rate hikes. Brent crude slipped towards $90 a barrel after US President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of further strikes on Iran, although attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz continued to fuel supply concerns. The move follows a bond rally last week after the Democrats’ sweeping victory in the US midterm elections raised expectations of political gridlock and more limited fiscal spending. Markets currently price in a 66% probability of an ECB rate hike in December, with an increase by February fully priced in, according to LSEG data. However, French bonds remain vulnerable to domestic political and fiscal uncertainties, as well as questions surrounding the ECB leadership transition following Christine Lagarde’s announcement that she intends to step down early.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield edged down below 3.25% as falling oil prices eased inflationary concerns, prompting traders to scale back expectations for further central bank rate hikes. Brent crude slipped towards $90 a barrel after US President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of further strikes on Iran, although attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz kept supply concerns in focus. The move follows a bond rally last week after the Democrats’ sweeping victory in the US midterm elections raised expectations of political gridlock and more limited fiscal spending. Markets currently price in a 66% chance of a rate hike in December, with an increase by February fully priced in, according to LSEG data. European bonds also remain vulnerable to France’s political and fiscal uncertainties and questions surrounding the ECB leadership transition following Christine Lagarde’s announcement that she intends to step down early.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury fluctuated around 4.88% on Monday, as investors positioned themselves ahead of a series of key economic releases this week that could influence expectations for the Fed’s next policy moves. This week’s CPI and PPI releases, are expected to point to a moderation in both monthly headline consumer and producer inflation. Against this backdrop, market-implied odds of another 25bps Fed rate hike next month currently stand at around 80%. Meanwhile, oil prices continued to decline, helping ease concerns over further inflationary pressures. President Trump said it was “highly unlikely” that he would order further strikes against Tehran if negotiations showed progress despite attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz.

The Swiss 10-year government bond yield held close to 0.45%, its lowest level in two months, as oil prices declined amid renewed diplomatic momentum in the Middle East, although no agreement has been signed yet. Elevated global oil prices continue to influence Swiss yields by fuelling rate-hike expectations elsewhere amid rising inflationary pressures. In Switzerland, however, SNB Chairman Schlegel said there were no signs of a broadening in price pressures and that the central bank had fulfilled its mandate of maintaining price stability over the medium term. Although inflation reached a three-year high in October amid a weaker franc and rising energy costs, energy accounts for only a small share of the Swiss CPI basket. The SNB has kept its key rate unchanged at 0% for over a year. While markets anticipate a hike in early 2027, economists expect the first increase only in late 2027.

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield fell below 4.30%, its lowest level in two months, as declining oil prices eased inflationary concerns. US President Trump’s remarks that extensive strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely" reduced expectations of renewed attacks on Tehran. The recent decline was also partly driven by safe-haven demand amid concerns over potential political gridlock in Washington following a Democratic sweep of the US Congress, which could also constrain fiscal spending. In Europe, markets see a lower likelihood of a December rate hike given the eurozone’s fragile growth outlook. Despite the decline, energy costs remain elevated and continue to fuel inflation, which stood at twice the ECB’s 2% target in October. Borrowing costs near multi-year highs are also an additional drag on growth. Still, policymakers have signalled their readiness to raise rates again if inflation fails to ease. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the ECB’s leadership transition remains in focus.

France's 10-year OAT yield rose towards 4.8% as investors reassessed expectations of December interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the ECB, while ongoing political and fiscal uncertainties continued to weigh on French debt. These pressures outweighed the relief from falling oil prices after US President Donald Trump played down the prospect of further strikes on Iran. Bond markets initially rallied last week after the Democrats' sweep in the US midterm elections raised expectations of political gridlock and more limited fiscal spending. However, yields reversed course on Friday as stronger-than-expected US employment data pushed the implied probability of a December Fed rate hike to 81%. Expectations of an ECB rate increase are more modest at 66%, reflecting the Eurozone's weaker growth outlook. European bond markets also face uncertainty surrounding the ECB leadership transition, following President Christine Lagarde's announcement that she intends to step down early.

Germany's 10-year Bund yield hovered around 3.25% as investors refocused on growing expectations of December rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the ECB, outweighing the downward pressure from falling oil prices after US President Donald Trump played down the prospect of further strikes on Iran. Bond markets initially rallied last week after the Democrats' sweep in the US midterm elections raised expectations of political gridlock and more limited fiscal spending. However, yields reversed course on Friday as stronger-than-expected October US employment data pushed the implied probability of a December Fed rate hike to 81%. Expectations of an ECB move are more subdued at 66%, reflecting the Eurozone's weaker growth outlook. European bonds also remain vulnerable to France's ongoing political and fiscal uncertainties, as well as uncertainty surrounding the ECB leadership transition following President Christine Lagarde's announcement that she intends to step down early.

The yield on 10-year UK government bonds fell to 5.1%, its lowest level since late August, as declining oil prices helped ease inflationary concerns. Brent crude slipped towards $90 a barrel amid diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in the Middle East. President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone, saying further strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely” if negotiations over its nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz made significant progress. Attention is now turning to Thursday’s UK third-quarter GDP report, which is expected to show growth of 0.7%, supported by resilient services activity. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations of further Bank of England rate hikes, potentially placing renewed upward pressure on gilt yields. Meanwhile, investors are also awaiting Tuesday’s US CPI report, which could offer further insight into the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and the potential timing of future rate hikes.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose toward 2.7% on Monday, recovering from four-month lows as hawkish comments from Bank of Japan officials strengthened expectations for further monetary tightening. BOJ Chief Economist Seisaku Kameda indicated that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates in December and continue increasing borrowing costs next year, potentially bringing rates closer to 2%. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also noted that underlying inflation is expected to remain around the BOJ’s 2% target, while acknowledging “some upside risks.” Meanwhile, demand for safe-haven bonds weakened as global equity markets rebounded from the recent AI-driven selloff, which was fueled by concerns over tighter AI industry regulations following the Democrats’ decisive victory in the US midterm elections. Investors also expect Democrats to push for a swift resolution to the conflict with Iran, potentially weighing on oil prices and easing inflationary pressures.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note steadied around 4.85% on Monday, halting a recent decline as stronger-than-expected employment figures reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, more than double the 65,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1%, underscoring the resilience of the US labor market. Markets are now pricing in an approximately 81% probability of a Fed rate increase in December, up from 71% before the employment report. Investors are now awaiting key US inflation releases this week for further indications of the Fed’s monetary policy direction, with the CPI due on Tuesday and the PPI scheduled for Friday. Meanwhile, demand for safe-haven bonds weakened as global equity markets rebounded from the recent AI-driven selloff, which was fueled by concerns over tighter AI industry regulations following the Democrats’ decisive victory in the US midterm elections.

Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield pared gains to hover around 15.18% in November after President Lula reassured markets on fiscal adjustment. Lula reiterated that his government is committed to fiscal responsibility while also considering social responsibility, amid pressure to announce adjustment measures and a drop in Brazilian assets after his late-October reelection. Investors remain focused on fiscal policy, especially the government’s commitment to controlling spending and public debt, which has risen significantly in recent years. Meanwhile, US nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 last month, topping all forecasts, and the unemployment rate edged lower. The stronger figures reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive stance. Higher-for-longer rates in advanced economies could also pressure the BCB to keep policy restrictive. The BCB held the Selic rate at 13.75% at its latest meeting, pausing its easing cycle.

Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 15.25% in November amid fiscal-policy uncertainty and growing bets on a US Federal Reserve rate hike. Investors remain focused on fiscal policy, especially the government’s commitment to controlling spending and public debt, which has risen significantly in recent years. President Lula has faced market pressure to present a fiscal adjustment plan. Concern over the debt trajectory led Lula to meet with economic-team members and former advisers, but no plans have been announced yet. Meanwhile, US nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 last month, topping all forecasts, and the unemployment rate edged lower. The stronger figures reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive stance. Higher-for-longer rates in advanced economies could also pressure the BCB to keep policy restrictive. The BCB held the Selic rate at 13.75% at its latest meeting, pausing its easing cycle.