Moldova Central Bank Raises Policy Rate to 11%

The National Bank of Moldova raised its benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 11% in November 2026, lifting borrowing costs to their highest level since April 2023, citing intensifying inflationary pressures and mounting risks to price stability. Headline inflation accelerated to 8.60% in September from 6.96% in August, moving above the upper limit of the central bank’s 5% ±1.5 percentage point target range. Meanwhile, domestic demand remained robust, with new loans to individuals in MDL up 10.5%, retail trade up 16.4% in July-August, and remittances from abroad up 26.44% in September. Economic activity also showed positive trends in the third quarter, supported by agriculture and industry. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to keep rising through the end of 2026 before easing and returning to the target range in the third quarter of 2027, with the forecast revised higher on expected regulated tariff adjustments and higher fuel prices.

The National Bank of Moldova raised its benchmark interest rate by 250 basis points to 9% in September 2026, lifting borrowing costs to their highest level since 2023, citing economic uncertainty and volatility in energy markets. Headline inflation accelerated to 6.96% in August, remaining near the upper limit of the central bank’s 5 ± 1.5% target range, reflecting the impact of higher international oil prices on inflationary pressures. However, inflation was lower than expected due to the delayed adjustment of natural gas tariffs. Meanwhile, economic activity accelerated to 0.9% in the second quarter, supported by industry, agriculture, financial and insurance activities, and trade. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to continue rising relatively quickly through the end of 2026, although the outlook will depend on energy and food prices, external financing, the fiscal impulse, and the implementation of the new fiscal policy for 2027. After 2026, policymakers expect disinflation.

The National Bank of Moldova raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.5% in August 2026, lifting borrowing costs to their highest level since May 2023, citing heightened geopolitical risks and uncertainty over global tariffs. Annual inflation eased to 6.51% in June from 6.8%, remaining near the upper bound of the central bank's 5% ±1.5 percentage point target range. Average inflation accelerated to 6.7% in the second quarter, driven mainly by higher fuel and transport costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, economic activity is expected to strengthen in the second quarter, supported by industrial output and resilient domestic demand. Looking ahead, the central bank revised its inflation forecast higher, expecting inflation to remain above the target range before easing from the first quarter of 2027, reflecting stronger second-round effects from higher fuel prices, anticipated tariff hikes in the third quarter, and elevated global food prices.