Moldova - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Moldova including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Moldova economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.60 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.40 6.2 4.1 3.2 4.2 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 7.30 6.5 6.2 6 5.5 3.6 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6 6 5.5 4.25 percent
Balance of Trade -183.20 -192 -191 -190 -189 -186 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 37.80 38.7 38.7 38.7 38.7 40.2 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 16.85
17.12 17.3 17.47 17.65 18.38
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.60
percent
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.40
percent
2.2 2 2.1 2.2 2.6
GDP 6.75
USD Billion
6.47 6.55 6.62 8.46 10.98
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 9662564.00
MDL Thousand
7137957 7442700 9097277 8535621 8313495
GDP per capita 2062.68
USD
2230 2230 2230 2230 2450
GDP per capita PPP 4944.34
USD
5009 5006 5003 5000 5219
GDP Constant Prices 127238946.50
MDL Thousand
125618832 128336194 131053557 133770919 157390315
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40
percent
6.2 4.1 3.2 4.2 4.5
Unemployed Persons 45.70
Thousand
64.52 53.74 48.2 50.95 56.05
Labor Force Participation Rate 43.90
percent
40.75 43.64 43.69 41.21 41.97
Wages 5809.10
MDL/Month
5971 6009 5991 6000 5927
Wages in Manufacturing 5579.70
MDL/Month
5377 5355 5391 5405 5362
Population 3.55
Million
3.58 3.57 3.57 3.57 3.52
Retirement Age Women 57.60
57 57 57 57 57
Retirement Age Men 62.60
62 62 62 62 62
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.10
percent
11.56 11.2 11.45 11.4 11.93
Employed Persons 1270.30
Thousand
1142 1259 1285 1182 1207
Employment Rate 42.40
percent
38.41 41.97 42.31 39.4 40.23
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 7.30
percent
6.5 6.2 6 5.5 3.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 2399.60
Index Points
2422 2430 2432 2432 2420
Core Inflation Rate 5.50
percent
5.97 6.14 6.19 6.21 6.22
Producer Prices 129.80
Index Points
137 137 129 142 154
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.46 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49
Producer Prices Change 2.30
percent
3.2 3 2.5 2.4 2
Food Inflation 9.70
percent
9.66 9.23 8.87 8.66 8.48
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent
6.5 6 6 5.5 4.25
Money Supply M0 19052.58
MDL Million
19295 19269 19227 19186 18707
Money Supply M3 77055.88
MDL Million
78570 79244 79476 79507 78120
Deposit Interest Rate 3.50
percent
3.5 3 3 2.5 1.5
Money Supply M1 34593.03
MDL Million
35883 36237 36268 36210 35151
Money Supply M2 52989.28
MDL Million
55458 56386 56652 56663 55022
Lending Rate 9.50
percent
9.5 9 9 8.5 7.5
Foreign Exchange Reserves 2799864.38
USD Thousand
2857385 2855670 2837812 2815863 2639831
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -183.20
USD Million
-192 -191 -190 -189 -186
Exports 272.10
USD Million
249 238 232 227 197
Imports 455.30
USD Million
434 425 417 409 369
Current Account -195.12
USD Million
-142 -141 -137 -129 -103
Current Account to GDP -4.10
percent
-6 -6 -6 -6 -5.2
Capital Flows 117.89
USD Million
66.66 75.9 82.14 74.53 71.26
Terrorism Index 0.47
0.51 0.61 0.7 0.79 1.16
Tourist Arrivals 41796.00
26600 37300 40200 35200 35200
Remittances 213.37
USD Million
188 196 198 191 183
Foreign Direct Investment 30.95
USD Million
37.11 37.34 38.34 38.68 41.48
External Debt 6549.23
USD Million
7020 7139 7239 7323 7546
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 37.80
percent
38.7 38.7 38.7 38.7 40.2
Government Budget -1.80
percent of GDP
-1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.7
Government Revenues 43660.70
MDL Million
45116 45200 45284 45368 44323
Military Expenditure 28.60
USD Million
23.9 24.95 25.99 27.04 21.05
Government Spending 46393.90
MDL Million
48402 48376 48349 48323 49233
Government Budget Value -2733.20
MDL Million
-1645 -1727 -1809 -1891 -1290
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Industrial Production 9.50
percent
5 3.5 2.66 2.19 1.59
Industrial Production Mom 0.60
percent
2.12 0.94 1.28 1.22 1.23
Manufacturing Production 11.70
percent
6.23 4.58 3.55 2.96 2.14
Mining Production 25.50
percent
8.86 8.29 8.17 8.14 8.13
Steel Production 45.00
Thousand Tonnes
47.33 48.45 49.28 49.9 51.51
Corruption Index 30.00
Points
31 31 31 30 30
Corruption Rank 123.00
103 106 109 112 104
Ease of Doing Business 44.00
44 47 50 53 71
Changes In Inventories 1866616.40
MDL Thousand
469977 79578 827041 181064 294979
Competitiveness Index 3.99
Points
3.92 3.92 3.92 3.89 3.89
Competitiveness Rank 89.00
90 90 90 74 90
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Retail Sales MoM 10.00
percent
1.1 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13
Retail Sales YoY -2.10
percent
0.18 1.03 1.68 2.19 3.78
Consumer Spending 38489119.00
MDL Thousand
26697119 29866063 36587299 33446481 33743539
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 12.00
percent
8 8 8 8 6
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 29.00
percent
29 29 29 29 29
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.00
percent
23.38 23.38 23.38 23.38 24.88
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.00
percent
5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 4.58
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 2.44
celsius
-1.54 14.58 19.12 3.73 9.17
Precipitation 3.13
mm
30.56 52.86 50.9 35.64 43.43