Moldova - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Moldova including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Moldova economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 0.7 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.00 3.2 4.2 3.8 3.1 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 3.20 2.4 2.1 3.8 4.1 5 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6.5 6.5 6 6 percent
Balance of Trade -269.50 -212 -210 -210 -213 -197 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 34.40 38.7 38.7 39.4 39.4 40.2 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 16.73
16.72 16.79 16.86 16.93 17.22
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70
percent
0.7 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.20
percent
4.4 3.7 3.2 3.8 2.6
GDP 8.13
USD Billion
8.5 8.5 9.3 9.3 11
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 11406473.00
MDL Thousand
9875334 9432334 7933492 11839919 9958225
GDP per capita 2165.16
USD
2230 2230 2370 2370 2450
GDP per capita PPP 5189.97
USD
5190 5190 5220 5220 5300
GDP Constant Prices 141043266.10
MDL Thousand
130860980 146261867 145556651 132913729 154416551
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.00
percent
3.2 4.2 3.8 3.1 4.5
Unemployed Persons 40.90
Thousand
40.16 38.99 44.6 40.46 40.2
Labor Force Participation Rate 46.40
percent
45.37 41.25 40.73 46.45 41.81
Wages 5906.50
MDL/Month
6100 6500 5800 6038 7000
Wages in Manufacturing 6020.00
MDL/Month
5500 6000 5250 5894 6300
Population 3.55
Million
3.54 3.54 3.54 3.54 3.52
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58.5 58 59
Retirement Age Men 63.00
63 63 63.5 63 64
Youth Unemployment Rate 7.80
percent
10.91 10.67 9.97 10.31 10.23
Employed Persons 1343.40
Thousand
1306 1187 1156 1336 1190
Employment Rate 45.00
percent
43.9 39.97 38.91 44.88 40.18
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.20
percent
2.4 2.1 3.8 4.1 5
Consumer Price Index CPI 2386.26
Index Points
2390 2450 2498 2518 2699
Core Inflation Rate 3.10
percent
3.52 3.46 3.41 3.39 3.37
Producer Prices 129.10
Index Points
129 131 131 131 134
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20
percent
0.45 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43
Producer Prices Change -0.40
percent
-0.4 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.2
Food Inflation 7.00
percent
6.25 6.91 7.28 7.45 7.54
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent
6.5 6.5 6.5 6 6
Money Supply M0 19053.15
MDL Million
19243 19515 19396 19540 19538
Money Supply M3 78486.96
MDL Million
79038 79755 80162 80421 80876
Deposit Interest Rate 3.50
percent
3.5 3.5 3.5 3 3
Money Supply M1 34913.94
MDL Million
35270 35688 35848 35915 35965
Money Supply M2 54764.72
MDL Million
55325 55997 56403 56660 57076
Lending Rate 9.50
percent
9.5 9.5 9.5 9 9
Foreign Exchange Reserves 2970885.79
USD Thousand
2893003 2903453 2906707 2907977 2908757
Cash Reserve Ratio 42.50
percent
40 43.98 44.53 44.72 44.82
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -269.50
USD Million
-212 -210 -210 -213 -197
Exports 218.90
USD Million
236 275 255 198 308
Imports 488.40
USD Million
448 485 465 411 505
Current Account -189.96
USD Million
-147 -144 -144 -141 -130
Current Account to GDP -4.10
percent
-6 -6 -5.7 -5.7 -5.2
Capital Flows 110.33
USD Million
88.23 87.99 86.67 86.59 86.43
Terrorism Index 0.47
0.56 0.65 0.69 0.72 0.91
Tourist Arrivals 44145.00
36300 37100 37000 37100 37100
Remittances 211.78
USD Million
219 214 202 214 213
Foreign Direct Investment 89.67
USD Million
70.06 68.22 75.82 71.5 71.62
External Debt 7204.68
USD Million
7607 7785 7942 8079 8613
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 34.40
percent
38.7 38.7 39.4 39.4 40.2
Government Budget -1.80
percent of GDP
-1.2 -1.2 -1.67 -1.66 -0.7
Government Revenues 45946.90
MDL Million
48150 48722 49416 50109 59822
Military Expenditure 28.40
USD Million
28.87 28.67 28.13 27.58 26.11
Government Spending 48462.60
MDL Million
49529 50256 50013 50304 53058
Government Budget Value -1144.80
MDL Million
-2487 -2487 -2487 -2487 -2487
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 1.50
percent
7.7 0.8 -1.1 -1.5 1.8
Industrial Production Mom -8.60
percent
2.35 1.79 1.1 1.1 1.12
Manufacturing Production -1.20
percent
5.46 4.43 3.62 3.16 2.4
Mining Production 34.80
percent
7.21 7.56 7.7 7.76 7.79
Steel Production 60.00
Thousand Tonnes
51.03 45.94 43.27 41.96 40.71
Corruption Index 31.00
Points
32 32 32 32 32
Corruption Rank 122.00
112 111 112 112 115
Ease of Doing Business 44.00
46 48 47 46 47
Changes In Inventories 137072.50
MDL Thousand
1089012 4073 -18999 -217228 118528
Competitiveness Index 3.99
Points
3.92 3.92 3.9 3.89 4.02
Competitiveness Rank 89.00
90 90 81 78 90
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales MoM -0.90
percent
1.16 0.98 1 1 1
Retail Sales YoY 3.30
percent
4.38 4.04 3.72 3.48 2.79
Consumer Spending 37022842.00
MDL Thousand
39336649 35729380 35294020 38429710 37721436
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 29.00
percent
29 29 29 29 29
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.00
percent
23.02 23.02 22.99 22.97 22.97
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.00
percent
5.99 5.99 6 6 6
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 2.44
celsius
19.12 3.73 -1.54 14.8 9.17
Precipitation 3.13
mm
50.9 35.64 30.62 43.1 43.43