Moldova - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Moldova including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Moldova economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.5 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.30 4.1 3.2 4.2 3.4 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 3.70 5.5 4.3 3.5 5.5 5 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6 6 5.5 5.25 4.25 percent
Balance of Trade -282.10 -212 -212 -210 -210 -197 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 34.40 38.7 38.7 38.7 39.4 40.2 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 16.62
16.57 16.77 16.97 17.17 18.01
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30
percent
0.6 0.7 0.6 1.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.40
percent
5.1 4.4 3.7 3.2 2.6
GDP 6.75
USD Billion
6.65 6.72 8.46 9.32 10.98
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 9095790.00
MDL Thousand
7639341 9875334 9432334 6870845 9958225
GDP per capita 2062.68
USD
2230 2230 2230 2370 2450
GDP per capita PPP 4944.34
USD
5006 5003 5000 5219 5261
GDP Constant Prices 141043266.10
MDL Thousand
131310406 130860980 146261867 132146763 154416551
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.30
percent
4.1 3.2 4.2 3.4 4.5
Unemployed Persons 40.30
Thousand
43.48 43.61 43.59 43.59 43.59
Labor Force Participation Rate 40.56
percent
42.69 43.04 42.92 42.96 42.95
Wages 6113.60
MDL/Month
6000 6100 6500 5800 7000
Wages in Manufacturing 5798.00
MDL/Month
5400 5500 6000 5250 6300
Population 3.55
Million
3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.52
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58.5 59
Retirement Age Men 63.00
63 63 63 63.5 64
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.80
percent
10.95 10.95 10.95 10.95 10.95
Employed Persons 1169.90
Thousand
1231 1240 1237 1238 1238
Employment Rate 39.21
percent
41.94 42.36 39.65 39.03 40.7
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.70
percent
5.5 4.3 3.5 5.5 5
Consumer Price Index CPI 2417.95
Index Points
2472 2435 2484 2584 2738
Core Inflation Rate 3.50
percent
4.77 5.02 5.27 5.47 6.01
Producer Prices 129.40
Index Points
132 133 133 135 139
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.48 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46
Producer Prices Change 1.00
percent
3 2.5 2.4 3.89 2
Food Inflation 6.80
percent
9 8.82 8.87 8.86 8.86
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent
6 6 5.5 5.25 4.25
Money Supply M0 18483.30
MDL Million
17584 17762 17918 17874 17842
Money Supply M3 76918.41
MDL Million
76731 75124 74328 74305 74790
Deposit Interest Rate 3.50
percent
3 3 2.5 5.63 1.5
Money Supply M1 33254.68
MDL Million
30711 29446 29897 30953 30818
Money Supply M2 52914.26
MDL Million
53715 53729 53647 53531 52082
Lending Rate 9.50
percent
9 9 8.5 11.63 7.5
Foreign Exchange Reserves 2860277.48
USD Thousand
2718835 2523688 2376108 2362423 2744187
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -282.10
USD Million
-212 -212 -210 -210 -197
Exports 242.20
USD Million
185 236 275 255 308
Imports 524.30
USD Million
397 448 485 465 505
Current Account -86.21
USD Million
-130 -125 -120 -121 -118
Current Account to GDP -4.10
percent
-6 -6 -6 -5.7 -5.2
Capital Flows 110.33
USD Million
88.49 88.23 87.99 86.67 86.43
Terrorism Index 0.47
0.47 0.56 0.65 0.69 0.91
Tourist Arrivals 27128.00
37100 39900 39000 30500 37000
Remittances 211.78
USD Million
212 219 214 202 213
Foreign Direct Investment 64.09
USD Million
46.18 46.18 46.18 46.18 46.18
External Debt 6973.70
USD Million
6650 6650 6650 6650 6650
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 34.40
percent
38.7 38.7 38.7 39.4 40.2
Government Budget -1.80
percent of GDP
-1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.67 -0.7
Government Revenues 45946.90
MDL Million
46534 46931 47328 47427 46059
Military Expenditure 28.40
USD Million
25.58 27.02 28.45 28.5 26.25
Government Spending 48462.60
MDL Million
49698 49529 52668 50013 55604
Government Budget Value -1144.80
MDL Million
-2487 -2487 -2487 -2487 -2487
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Industrial Production 10.20
percent
8.01 1.67 3.99 5.08 4.21
Industrial Production Mom 15.70
percent
2.06 2.21 1.32 1.24 1.17
Manufacturing Production 5.10
percent
7.57 6.14 5.58 5.68 5.81
Mining Production 48.10
percent
-3.56 18.21 17.56 14.79 -4.99
Steel Production 50.00
Thousand Tonnes
38.26 35.94 34.87 34.38 33.96
Corruption Index 31.00
Points
31 31 31 31 31
Corruption Rank 122.00
122 122 122 122 122
Ease of Doing Business 44.00
44 44 44 44 44
Changes In Inventories -1323661.90
MDL Thousand
-88808 717696 278085 517709 433066
Competitiveness Index 3.99
Points
3.92 3.92 3.92 3.92 3.92
Competitiveness Rank 89.00
94 94 94 94 94
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Retail Sales MoM -6.80
percent
2.98 2.11 2.36 2.27 2.32
Retail Sales YoY 4.60
percent
-3.13 -2.08 -4.72 -4.53 -4.05
Consumer Spending 34454561.00
MDL Thousand
31160960 39336649 35729380 26576592 37721436
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 29.00
percent
29 29 29 29 29
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.00
percent
23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.00
percent
6 6 6 6 6
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 2.44
celsius
14.58 19.12 3.73 -1.54 9.17
Precipitation 3.13
mm
52.86 50.9 35.64 30.62 43.43