Moldova Holds Key Policy Rate at 5%

The National Bank of Moldova left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5% on February 5, 2026, following a 100 bps reduction in December. The decision takes into account the delayed effects of prior monetary policies and aims to maintain medium-term inflation within ±1.5 percentage points of the 5% target, deemed optimal for sustainable economic growth. Inflation eased to a one-year low of 6.8% in December 2025, down from 7% in November, and is expected to return to the target range in the first quarter, remaining close to target thereafter. At the same time, the central bank reduced reserve requirements in both Moldovan lei and freely convertible currency to meet the banking system’s liquidity needs. This measure is expected to increase lending capacity to the real and public sectors, supporting aggregate demand by encouraging consumption and investment, and helping balance the national economy and the current account.

The National Bank of Moldova cut its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 5.0% on December 11, 2025, marking its third rate cut this year and extending its accommodative monetary policy stance. Annual inflation in November remained at 6.99%, above the central target of 5.0% ±1.5%, driven primarily by regulated and food prices. Inflation is expected to return to the target range in December and remain at the lower bound through Q1 2026. The economy continues to show positive growth, providing a supportive environment for policy easing. Industrial production in September grew 9.0% year-on-year, while exports and imports increased 23.1% and 21.2%, respectively. The external environment remains broadly stable, though risks persist from energy, food, and geopolitical factors. Overall, risks to inflation are skewed toward disinflation, reinforcing the need to maintain an accommodative policy stance to achieve medium-term inflation objectives.

The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) kept its policy rate at 6% and lowered the reserve requirements for both Moldovan lei and foreign currencies. These measures aim to ease banking system liquidity, reduce lending costs, and support consumption and investment. Although annual inflation fell from 8.2% in June to 6.9% in September, it remained above the upper bound of the central bank’s 5% ±1.5 percentage point target. The NBM expected average inflation of 7.7% for 2025. It was projected to fall to 4.3% in 2026 and return to the target band in early 2026. Economic activity is rebounding, with GDP expanding 1.1% year-on-year in Q2, driven by domestic demand. Externally, the global economy remains resilient but is slowing. Geopolitical tensions, volatility in energy and commodity prices, and trade uncertainties are heightening risks for Moldova’s economic growth and inflation trajectory.