Kazakhstan Unexpectedly Cuts Rates Again by 50 Bps

2026-10-23 07:17 By Joshua Ferrer 1 min. read

The National Bank of Kazakhstan lowered its base rate to 15.75% on October 23, 2026, surprising markets that had widely expected a 25 bps cut.

The decision followed September’s unexpected quarter-point reduction, as annual inflation eased for a twelfth consecutive month to 9.3% amid a tight monetary policy and favorable dynamics of the tenge exchange rate.

However, services inflation remained elevated at 8.9%, highlighting persistent price pressures.

The NBK warned that risks remained tilted toward higher inflation, citing elevated global energy and food prices, tighter global monetary conditions and strong domestic demand.

The economy grew 4.2% year over year in January-September, supported by construction, manufacturing and transport, while fiscal stimulus and robust investment continued to underpin activity.

The central bank said the cut preserves moderately tight monetary conditions, with further easing unlikely before year-end.

Its next rate decision is scheduled for December 4.



News Stream
Kazakhstan Unexpectedly Cuts Rates Again by 50 Bps
The National Bank of Kazakhstan lowered its base rate to 15.75% on October 23, 2026, surprising markets that had widely expected a 25 bps cut. The decision followed September’s unexpected quarter-point reduction, as annual inflation eased for a twelfth consecutive month to 9.3% amid a tight monetary policy and favorable dynamics of the tenge exchange rate. However, services inflation remained elevated at 8.9%, highlighting persistent price pressures. The NBK warned that risks remained tilted toward higher inflation, citing elevated global energy and food prices, tighter global monetary conditions and strong domestic demand. The economy grew 4.2% year over year in January-September, supported by construction, manufacturing and transport, while fiscal stimulus and robust investment continued to underpin activity. The central bank said the cut preserves moderately tight monetary conditions, with further easing unlikely before year-end. Its next rate decision is scheduled for December 4.
2026-10-23
Kazakhstan Unexpectedly Cuts Rates by 50 Bps to 16.25%
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) lowered its base rate by 50 bps to 16.25% at its September 2026 meeting, surprising markets that had widely expected policymakers to cut borrowing costs by 25 bps. The decision followed July’s 25 bps cut, as annual inflation eased for an eleventh consecutive month to 9.8% in August, marking the lowest reading since February 2025. The central bank has lowered rates by a total of 175 bps since June, bringing the policy rate to its lowest level since February 2025. However, the NBK noted that the external environment remains unstable amid high energy prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and increasing external inflationary pressures. The central bank revised its inflation forecast for 2027 to 6.5%-8.5% from 5.5%-7.5% previously due to rising external inflation and an increase in fiscal stimulus. “However, given intensifying inflationary factors and risks, the scope for further cuts is limited,” the regulator said.
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Central Bank of Kazakhstan Cuts Rates Again
The National Bank of Kazakhstan lowered its base rate by 25bps to 16.75% at its July 2026 meeting, surprising markets that had widely expected policymakers to leave borrowing costs unchanged. The decision followed June's surprise 100bps cut, as annual inflation eased for a ninth consecutive month to 10.3% in June. Policymakers said disinflation continued to be supported by tight monetary policy, a stronger tenge, moderating consumer demand, and government anti-inflation measures, although recent monthly inflation data suggested the slowdown in price pressures may be losing momentum. The central bank also highlighted resilient economic activity, with GDP expanding 4.1% in the first half of 2026, supported by strong growth in construction, manufacturing, transportation, and investment. Despite the rate cut, policymakers reiterated that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside and emphasized that future policy decisions will remain data-dependent.
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