Kazakhstan Unexpectedly Cuts Rates by 50 Bps to 16.25%

2026-09-04 07:15 By Chusnul Chotimah 1 min. read

The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) lowered its base rate by 50 bps to 16.25% at its September 2026 meeting, surprising markets that had widely expected policymakers to cut borrowing costs by 25 bps.

The decision followed July’s 25 bps cut, as annual inflation eased for an eleventh consecutive month to 9.8% in August, marking the lowest reading since February 2025.

The central bank has lowered rates by a total of 175 bps since June, bringing the policy rate to its lowest level since February 2025.

However, the NBK noted that the external environment remains unstable amid high energy prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and increasing external inflationary pressures.

The central bank revised its inflation forecast for 2027 to 6.5%-8.5% from 5.5%-7.5% previously due to rising external inflation and an increase in fiscal stimulus.

“However, given intensifying inflationary factors and risks, the scope for further cuts is limited,” the regulator said.



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Kazakhstan Unexpectedly Cuts Rates by 50 Bps to 16.25%
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) lowered its base rate by 50 bps to 16.25% at its September 2026 meeting, surprising markets that had widely expected policymakers to cut borrowing costs by 25 bps. The decision followed July’s 25 bps cut, as annual inflation eased for an eleventh consecutive month to 9.8% in August, marking the lowest reading since February 2025. The central bank has lowered rates by a total of 175 bps since June, bringing the policy rate to its lowest level since February 2025. However, the NBK noted that the external environment remains unstable amid high energy prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and increasing external inflationary pressures. The central bank revised its inflation forecast for 2027 to 6.5%-8.5% from 5.5%-7.5% previously due to rising external inflation and an increase in fiscal stimulus. “However, given intensifying inflationary factors and risks, the scope for further cuts is limited,” the regulator said.
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