Kazakhstan Holds Key Rate at 16.5%

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 18% on March 6, 2026, citing still-elevated inflation despite ongoing disinflation. Annual inflation eased to 11.7% in February from 12.2% in January, with price growth slowing across food (12.7%), non-food goods (11.6%), and services (10.8%). The central bank noted that tight monetary conditions, a stronger tenge, slower unsecured consumer lending, and government anti-inflation measures have supported the decline in inflation, though monthly inflation accelerated to 1.1% in February. Looking ahead, inflation in 2026 is projected at 9.5–11.5%, before slowing to 5.5–7.5% by 2027 and approaching the 5% target in 2028. GDP growth is expected at 3.5–4.5% this year. The central bank said there is currently no room for monetary easing but may consider rate cuts in the second half of 2026 if inflation slows sustainably. The next policy decision is scheduled for April 24, 2026.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 18% on January 23, 2026, in line with market expectations, citing persistently high inflation and strong domestic demand. Headline inflation reached 12.3% at the end of 2025, in line with the central bank's forecasts, largely driven by food prices, while monthly inflation rose 0.9% in December and core inflation remained elevated. Inflation expectations increased, with households projecting 14.7% over the next year and market participants anticipating 10.8% for 2026. While a stronger tenge and tighter financial conditions have supported disinflation, upside risks linger, including the effects of fuel price liberalization, tariff reforms, tax changes, and the planned quasi-fiscal stimulus. The central bank indicated the policy rate is likely to stay at its current level through the first half of 2026. The next rate decision is due on March 6, 2026.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 18% on November 28, 2025, after a record 150-basis-point hike in October aimed at containing persistent inflation. The central bank indicated that rate cuts are unlikely before mid-2026, while further tightening could be considered if price pressures fail to ease. Annual inflation eased slightly in October but remained well above the 5% target, supported by fiscal stimulus, rising regulated prices, and supply constraints. Elevated inflation expectations prompted the government to complement monetary policy with price freezes on fuel and utilities and a 2026–2028 program aimed at curbing inflation, reducing import dependence, and supporting growth. GDP growth is now projected at 3.5–4.5% in 2026. Meanwhile, the tenge has strengthened nearly 5% against the dollar since the last rate decision, aided by oil fund currency sales. The central bank’s next policy meeting is scheduled for January 23, 2026.