Soybeans Attempt Rebound

Soybean futures rose above $11.2 per bushel, attempting to rebound from four-month lows as a stronger US dollar was offset by firmer crude oil prices and renewed Chinese demand. The USDA confirmed last week the sale of 132,000 tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year, marking the first publicly reported Chinese purchase since the May summit. Additional support came from higher crude oil prices after shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz slowed, while early talks between US and Iran, held under a new interim agreement, got off to a shaky start. Agricultural goods tend to track crude oil movements given their linkage to biofuel demand in grains and oilseeds. Meanwhile, the US dollar remained firm after the Federal Reserve policy meeting last week reinforced expectations of rate hikes this year, making US commodities more expensive for foreign buyers. Elsewhere, excess soil moisture in southern Argentina has slowed the 2025/26 soybean harvest.

Soybean futures fell to around $11.2 per bushel, easing from a two-week high as a stronger US dollar and weaker oil prices outweighed expectations of Chinese demand. While the USDA reported 132,000 metric tonnes of US soybeans sold to China, overall buying pace remains slow and concerns remain that China may fall short of projected import volumes. Focus now turns on upcoming USDA crop condition reports next week for signs of stress in the US Midwest soybean belt. Recent heavy rainfalls have disrupted fieldwork, preventing timely fertilizer and crop treatments, raising concerns over potential yield impacts if wet conditions persist. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened after the latest Fed policy meeting reinforced bets of rate hikes this year, making US commodities more expensive for foreign buyers. Crude oil also dropped to its lowest level since the start of the Iran war after an interim deal raised expectations of improved supply flows and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Soybean futures climbed above $11.3 per bushel, hitting a two-week high on signs of renewed Chinese import demand, although favorable US crop weather limited further upside. Reports indicate Chinese buyers are looking to secure US cargoes for fourth-quarter shipment, though traders say no firm deals have been confirmed yet. Markets have been closely monitoring Chinese purchasing activity following the May announcement that China would buy $17 billion of US agricultural products annually, alongside an existing commitment of 25 million metric tons of soybeans. Meanwhile, widespread rain and warm temperatures across the US Midwest have generally benefited crop development over the past week, reinforcing expectations of adequate global supply. The USDA also rated 66% of US soybeans in good-to-excellent condition, up one percentage point from a week earlier. A sharp decline in crude oil prices after an outline US-Iran peace deal added further pressure on grain and oilseed markets.