Palladium Rises to Over 2-Year High

Palladium hovered above $1,560 an ounce for the first time since early 2023, driven by strong safe-haven demand and expectations of US rate cuts.

Tensions flared after China expanded rare earth export controls, prompting President Trump to announce an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1st.

While this sharply escalated trade friction, subsequent White House signals suggest a potential easing.

Markets now price in 25-basis-point Fed cuts in both October’s and December’s meetings.

On the industrial side, platinum remains a long-term substitute for palladium, but rapid growth in hybrid vehicle production continues to support near-term demand.

On the supply front, tightness persists.

Recycling is expected to grow at a 7.5% CAGR from 2024 to 2029, yet high mining costs, long production cycles, coupled with declining mine output, mean recycling alone cannot fill the supply gap.