Brunei Q3 GDP Stabilizes with Marginal Growth

Brunei’s economy stabilized in Q3 2025, up marginally by 0.03% yoy after contracting in the prior three quarters. The services sector shrank at a slower pace (-0.5% vs -2.4% in Q2), helped by growth in air transport, finance, real estate, and other transport services. Meanwhile, industrial activity slowed (0.3% vs. 1.1%), weighed by softer oil and gas output, declines in food and beverage manufacturing, other manufacturing, and construction. Agricultural growth eased sharply (1.8% vs. 5.0%) amid further drops in fruits, vegetables, other agricultural products, and forestry. Expenditure-wise, fixed investment improved (-0.1% vs -9.5%). Net trade lifted growth as exports recovered (4.6% vs -15.6%) while imports fell further (-21.6% vs -17.8%). Household consumption stayed weak (-5.0% vs -3.2%), while government spending fell for the first time in five quarters (-3.0% vs 12.0%). On a quarterly basis, GDP rebounded 5.4%, swinging from a marginally revised 5.6% fall in Q2.

Brunei’s economy contracted 0.3% yoy in Q2 2025, easing from a 1.8% decline in Q1 and marking the third consecutive quarter of contraction. The latest figure also represented the softest decrease in the sequence. The industry sector rebounded (1.1% vs -2.5% in Q1), mainly boosted by higher oil and gas output. Agricultural output also surged (5.0% vs -11.7%), driven by livestock, poultry, and fisheries. In contrast, services activity declined further (-2.4% vs -0.6%), weighed by weak wholesale and retail trade, finance, hotels, and business services. On the expenditure side, government expenditure picked up strongly (12.0% vs 0.8%). Meanwhile, exports dropped 15.6% and imports slipped 17.8%, yet net trade still contributed positively to growth. Simultaneously, household spending remained subdued (-3.2% vs -3.0%), and fixed investment continued to contract (-9.5% vs -13.2%). On a quarterly basis, the GDP contracted 5.7%, deepening from a 5.1% drop in Q1.

Brunei’s economy shrank 1.8% yoy in Q1 of 2025, deepening from a 1.3% fall in the prior period and marking the sharpest yearly contraction since Q2 2023. The services sector fell (-0.6% vs 4.8% in Q4), ending a three-quarter expansion streak due to declines in health, land, and other transport services. Further, agricultural output plunged (-11.7% vs 3.6%), hit by weakness in forestry, fisheries, and various crops. Meanwhile, industrial output continued to drop, albeit at a slower rate (-2.5% vs -5.2%), led by falls in other manufacturing, utilities, and LNG and petroleum production. On the expenditure side, fixed investment decreased sharply (-13.3% vs -4.4%) amid a steep deterioration in household spending (-3.0% vs 1.0%) and steady growth in government spending (at 0.8%). On the trade front, exports fell 10.4%, with imports slipping 11.6%. On a quarterly basis, GDP shrank 5.1%, reversing a 5.9% increase in Q4. In 2024, the economy grew 4.2%, up sharply from 1.1% in a year before.