Albania | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Albania including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Albania economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.36 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 14.30 13.8 13.6 13.2 13 11.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -32424.00 -30512 -30073 -29621 -29137 -25677 ALL Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 70.95 69.8 69.5 69.5 69.5 68.8 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 113.43 113 112 111 110 96.99 [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.36 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.06 3.4 3.3 3.2 3 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 11.93 11.96 11.82 11.55 11.27 14.55 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 362258.40 360410 359341 358371 357460 349712 ALL Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 96759.00 104061 102552 107041 108000 126342 ALL Million [+]
GDP per capita 4711.99 4660 4750 4750 4750 4970 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 11424.63 11615 11623 11632 11641 11516 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 64138.76 64095 63889 63835 63638 62559 ALL Million [+]
GDP From Construction 38721.32 39556 40073 39793 39815 37111 ALL Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 22063.78 21681 21333 20891 20553 18416 ALL Million [+]
GDP From Mining 48591.73 48243 48033 47529 47444 45258 ALL Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 40065.56 39651 39473 39574 39418 38902 ALL Million [+]
GDP From Services 57257.98 56429 56120 55840 55581 53996 ALL Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 14.30 13.8 13.6 13.2 13 11.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 1091.00 1089 1087 1084 1081 1055 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 92.00 90.42 91.62 93.83 96.9 140 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.90 64.23 63.78 63.37 63.15 63.99 percent [+]
Wages 60500.00 61817 62436 62614 62770 62483 ALL/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 24000.00 24235 24380 24393 24413 24247 ALL/Month [+]
Population 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.85 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Employment Rate 57.30 55.64 55.31 54.47 53.65 53.75 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 26.60 26.39 26.58 27.18 27.28 28.44 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.04 0.57 0.78 0.9 0.96 1.03 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.10 104 105 106 102 119 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 101.40 104 106 106 101 116 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.03 4.1 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.8 percent [+]
Food Inflation 4.00 4.09 4.09 4.09 4.09 4.09 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.40 104 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 100.02 99.7 99.53 99.37 99.2 97.84 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 2 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 391007.26 390375 389967 389642 389335 386619 ALL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 438642.89 438419 438059 437694 437330 434080 ALL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 720923.84 719692 719275 719006 718764 716637 ALL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1251268.24 1253892 1254270 1253999 1253529 1248541 ALL Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1456924.40 1471672 1479382 1482941 1484103 1469929 ALL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.25 0.27 0.3 0.33 0.36 0.61 percent [+]
Lending Rate 2.25 2.29 2.34 2.39 2.43 2.83 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 339280.20 342133 343368 343869 344049 343729 ALL Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 510160.63 511853 511064 509663 508134 494672 ALL Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -32424.00 -30512 -30073 -29621 -29137 -25677 ALL Million [+]
Exports 24761.00 22549 23707 23269 23160 22237 ALL Million [+]
Imports 57185.00 53839 54004 53636 53238 50053 ALL Million [+]
Current Account -231.04 -223 -209 -220 -214 -220 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -12.10 -8.2 -6.6 -6.6 -6.6 -4.2 percent [+]
Capital Flows -86.55 -94.49 -103 -86.14 -82.69 -40.88 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 1.57 1.59 1.61 1.62 1.64 1.76 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 167.90 213 191 193 191 170 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 21.00 20.9 20.81 20.71 20.62 19.82 BBL/D/1K [+]
External Debt 7958.22 8011 8001 7994 7981 7508 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 1.10 0.23 0.15 0.07 -0.01 0.92 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1157354.00 754800 600500 1166500 2302900 795400 [+]
Remittances 137.24 167 147 157 163 169 EUR Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 70.95 69.8 69.5 69.5 69.5 68.8 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.20 -2 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -2531.00 -12000 -14740 -15200 -15231 -15216 ALL Million [+]
Government Spending 40991.00 42365 42853 43581 44147 47988 ALL Million [+]
Government Revenues 320072.00 183268 135105 127089 126596 126781 ALL Million [+]
Government Debt 1024491.00 1013566 1009423 1002394 993449 900622 ALL Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 322603.00 176044 135206 139009 142302 142243 ALL Million [+]
Military Expenditure 141.80 142 142 142 141 141 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 2.80 -2.8 -0.72 -2.63 -4.2 -5 [+]
Industrial Production 14.50 17.83 16.96 15.4 14.09 11.3 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 192706.26 142979 123856 104733 85610 62884 ALL Million [+]
Internet Speed 6792.76 7152 7034 7184 7166 6576 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 122132.00 111605 113726 111267 111823 105584 IP [+]
Mining Production 32.50 39.12 33.79 29.37 25.54 17.88 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.60 6.88 7.69 7.82 7.79 7.55 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.18 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.06 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 75.00 77 77 77 77 92 [+]
Corruption Index 39.00 39 39 39 39 36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 83.00 82 84 87 90 109 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 65.00 81 86 89 91 100 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -8.00 -10.5 -11.23 -11.03 -10.88 -12 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.30 5.72 5.19 4.75 4.66 4.82 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 297478.00 314110 324193 331231 337934 373338 ALL Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.50 1.48 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.37 USD/Liter [+]
Consumer Credit 167987.10 169355 169709 169575 169212 164669 ALL Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output 32.90 23.15 18.95 16.23 14.47 11.9 percent [+]
Building Permits 101.00 56.91 74.38 77.41 70.52 79.77 [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 14.5 14.25 14 13 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 23.00 24 22 21 19 12 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 27.90 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 16.70 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.20 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 1.00 78.13 78.12 78.12 78.12 78.12 mm [+]
Temperature 3.00 4.82 7.05 17.58 15.19 6.74 celsius [+]