Albania - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Albania including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Albania economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.15 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 12.90 13 13 12.7 12.5 11.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.20 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 3 percent
Interest Rate 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent
Balance of Trade -27740.00 -29700 -39000 -28900 -33400 -38500 ALL Million
Government Debt to GDP 69.92 68.5 68.5 67.8 67.8 66.3 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 107.05
108 109 110 111 113
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.15
percent
0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.45
percent
3.3 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.2
GDP 13.04
USD Billion
14 14 14.5 14.5 14.5
GDP Constant Prices 372884.00
ALL Million
369724 376959 383325 372039 394884
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 72483.00
ALL Million
88280 121942 74513 94900 127740
GDP per capita 4868.20
USD
4900 4900 4960 4960 4970
GDP per capita PPP 11803.40
USD
12000 12200 12200 12200 12700
GDP From Agriculture 66147.00
ALL Million
66132 67275 67999 65871 70474
GDP From Construction 35582.00
ALL Million
37002 36520 36578 39767 38257
GDP From Manufacturing 24474.00
ALL Million
23196 25018 25159 22659 26207
GDP From Mining 53181.00
ALL Million
44828 48026 54670 49904 50309
GDP From Public Administration 41447.00
ALL Million
42835 43346 42608 41147 45407
GDP From Services 58168.00
ALL Million
60206 58650 59797 58804 61439
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 12.90
percent
13 13 12.7 12.5 11.5
Employed Persons 1137.00
Thousand
1129 1129 1130 1131 1138
Unemployed Persons 78.00
Thousand
85 84 84 83 80
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.00
percent
67.69 67.43 67.08 66.7 64.95
Wages 60595.00
ALL/Month
61300 61500 61800 63513 64000
Minimum Wages 24000.00
ALL/Month
24000 24000 25000 25147 25000
Population 2.87
Million
2.87 2.87 2.87 2.87 2.86
Retirement Age Women 60.67
60.67 60.67 60.83 61 61
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Employment Rate 57.30
percent
59.66 59.92 59.95 59.93 59.92
Youth Unemployment Rate 22.60
percent
23.83 23.56 23.88 23.5 22.89
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.53 0.17 0.1 0.26 0.19
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.00
Index Points
106 107 109 107 113
Producer Prices 103.50
Index Points
104 106 105 106 112
Producer Prices Change 2.40
percent
3.2 2.9 1.3 2.7 2.8
Harmonised Consumer Prices 106.00
Index Points
107 108 111 109 114
Food Inflation 2.95
percent
3.16 3.48 3.58 3.59 3.59
Cpi Housing Utilities 104.30
Index Points
104 104 104 104 104
CPI Transportation 103.30
Index Points
103 104 104 105 110
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
Money Supply M0 391056.23
ALL Million
389957 389785 389760 389756 389755
Money Supply M1 464022.98
ALL Million
464181 468335 472083 475411 492145
Money Supply M2 725399.73
ALL Million
724493 725871 727634 729437 746687
Money Supply M3 1239677.96
ALL Million
1236213 1242703 1244285 1245465 1248987
Banks Balance Sheet 1447341.94
ALL Million
1443792 1445437 1447088 1448709 1463332
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10
percent
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Lending Rate 1.90
percent
1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Loans To Private Sector 320863.20
ALL Million
312370 307638 303092 298719 263578
Central Bank Balance Sheet 504421.70
ALL Million
506771 507802 507577 507495 507489
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -27740.00
ALL Million
-29700 -39000 -28900 -33400 -38500
Exports 20375.00
ALL Million
25100 22500 26200 24600 25500
Imports 48115.00
ALL Million
54800 61500 55100 58000 64000
Current Account -172.59
EUR Million
-187 -246 -187 -238 -220
Current Account to GDP -6.40
percent
-6.6 -6.6 -4.9 -4.9 -4.2
Capital Flows -264.52
EUR Million
-222 -199 -243 -210 -222
Gold Reserves 1.60
Tonnes
1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59
Foreign Direct Investment 283.50
EUR Million
228 251 247 258 246
External Debt 8111.40
EUR Million
7977 7975 8005 8023 8134
Crude Oil Production 15.00
BBL/D/1K
14.94 14.93 14.93 14.92 14.92
Terrorism Index 1.49
1 1.04 1 0.95 0.74
Tourist Arrivals 1242616.00
1125700 1136200 1135200 1135300 1135300
Remittances 147.40
EUR Million
166 171 153 162 167
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.92
percent
68.5 68.5 67.8 67.8 66.3
Government Budget -2.00
percent of GDP
-1.6 -1.6 -2.36 -2.39 -1
Government Budget Value 3101.00
ALL Million
-483 -2581 -1580 -1176 -1699
Government Spending 37646.00
ALL Million
41521 44877 38700 42043 47011
Government Revenues 255873.00
ALL Million
239345 199284 211357 217170 212998
Government Debt 1028219.00
ALL Million
1041384 1034931 1037829 1038218 1043434
Fiscal Expenditure 252772.00
ALL Million
239828 202662 212938 218346 214697
Military Expenditure 151.55
USD Million
151 160 160 160 159
Government Spending To Gdp 29.70
percent
29.64 29.54 29.64 29.73 30.66
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence -1.40
Index Points
-1.18 -2.5 -0.78 -0.08 -5
Industrial Production 2.40
percent
3.5 4.64 4.94 5.05 4.1
Changes in Inventories 128787.00
ALL Million
135277 135354 135233 135112 134902
Internet Speed 6792.76
KBps
8060 8292 8336 8486 9890
IP Addresses 122132.00
IP
123815 121883 124496 122244 123121
Manufacturing Production 9.40
percent
3.35 5.3 3.75 5.76 5.13
Ease of Doing Business 65.00
78 78 75 72 68
Competitiveness Index 4.18
Points
4.1 4.1 4.15 4.17 3.92
Competitiveness Rank 75.00
75 75 75 75 75
Corruption Index 38.00
Points
38 37 37 37 37
Corruption Rank 91.00
95 99 101 103 103
Mining Production -3.30
percent
2.79 5.07 5.43 5.86 2.99
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -12.50
Index Points
-10.62 -10 -10.6 -11.15 -12
Retail Sales YoY -0.30
percent
4.4 5.34 5.15 4.73 4.65
Consumer Spending 262816.00
ALL Million
277386 272921 270175 304590 285899
Gasoline Prices 1.66
USD/Liter
1.69 1.6 1.51 1.43 1.13
Economic Optimism Index 106.60
110 111 109 112 111
Bank Lending Rate 4.08
percent
4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08
Consumer Credit 172202.50
ALL Million
172220 173067 173835 174533 178800
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 6.10
percent
14.06 14.05 12.93 11.7 12.24
Building Permits 221.00
280 250 340 330 350
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Personal Income Tax Rate 23.00
percent
23 23 22 22 22
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 24.50
percent
24.5 24.5 25 25 25
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.50
percent
9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 1.95
mm
46.83 124 94 81.56 86.11
Temperature 3.89
celsius
21.04 8.9 4.86 19.25 12.92