Albania - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Albania including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Albania economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.38 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 13.60 13.6 13.2 13 13 11.5 percent
Inflation Rate 1.70 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 3 percent
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 2 percent
Balance of Trade -38750.80 -32995 -33010 -32516 -32028 -27138 ALL Million
Government Debt to GDP 70.95 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 68.8 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 106.65
112 114 116 118 127
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.38
percent
0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.55
percent
3.3 3.2 3 2.7 2.2
GDP 11.93
USD Billion
11.27 11.55 11.82 12.45 14.55
GDP Constant Prices 363722.20
ALL Million
361760 360727 359824 358936 349124
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 90530.00
ALL Million
100760 105730 106574 109978 130706
GDP per capita 4711.99
USD
4750 4750 4750 4750 4970
GDP per capita PPP 11424.63
USD
11271 11386 11500 11615 11321
GDP From Agriculture 65058.23
ALL Million
64862 64920 64793 64826 63586
GDP From Construction 36401.54
ALL Million
37923 37006 37490 37386 36482
GDP From Manufacturing 22819.33
ALL Million
22506 22282 21864 21457 18596
GDP From Mining 44100.14
ALL Million
45886 44201 44868 44742 42759
GDP From Public Administration 42139.36
ALL Million
41675 41103 41187 41059 40239
GDP From Services 59228.53
ALL Million
58295 58016 57782 57548 55466
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.60
percent
13.6 13.2 13 13 11.5
Employed Persons 1103.00
Thousand
1102 1099 1095 1091 1056
Unemployed Persons 86.00
Thousand
80.1 79.39 79.93 81.6 137
Labor Force Participation Rate 67.10
percent
66.37 65.9 65.35 64.86 64.4
Wages 60650.00
ALL/Month
61964 62076 62213 62268 61631
Minimum Wages 24000.00
ALL/Month
24000 24000 24000 24000 25000
Population 2.88
Million
2.89 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.85
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Employment Rate 57.70
percent
56.89 56.4 55.64 54.97 54.37
Youth Unemployment Rate 26.00
percent
26.16 26.36 26.64 27.03 28.16
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.70
percent
2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 3
Inflation Rate Mom 1.50
percent
0.37 -0.18 0.4 0.15 0.19
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.55
Index Points
105 106 105 110 119
Producer Prices 101.10
Index Points
106 106 100 109 116
Producer Prices Change 2.02
percent
3.6 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.8
Food Inflation 2.20
percent
3.01 3.73 3.95 4 4.03
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.90
Index Points
103 103 103 103 103
CPI Transportation 101.20
Index Points
101 101 101 100 98.66
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.25
percent
1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 2
Money Supply M0 394738.41
ALL Million
394100 393785 393479 393178 390790
Money Supply M1 444574.62
ALL Million
444420 444071 443713 443355 439101
Money Supply M2 722743.94
ALL Million
723214 723081 722865 722635 719852
Money Supply M3 1252569.34
ALL Million
1253619 1253441 1253008 1252493 1245923
Banks Balance Sheet 1469518.20
ALL Million
1482491 1486563 1488036 1488015 1466628
Deposit Interest Rate 0.25
percent
0.26 0.29 0.32 0.35 0.65
Lending Rate 2.25
percent
2.27 2.32 2.36 2.41 2.91
Loans To Private Sector 338531.50
ALL Million
339807 339994 340096 340154 340397
Central Bank Balance Sheet 517498.62
ALL Million
518723 517426 515945 514446 497377
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -38750.80
ALL Million
-32995 -33010 -32516 -32028 -27138
Exports 21971.10
ALL Million
23924 23161 23110 23032 21815
Imports 60721.90
ALL Million
57396 57193 56839 56465 52302
Current Account -133.07
EUR Million
-166 -195 -178 -193 -200
Current Account to GDP -12.10
percent
-6.6 -6.6 -6.6 -6.6 -4.2
Capital Flows -193.93
EUR Million
-125 -118 -99.8 -96.79 -38.82
Gold Reserves 1.57
Tonnes
1.58 1.59 1.61 1.62 1.73
Foreign Direct Investment 298.77
EUR Million
214 209 226 213 179
Crude Oil Production 21.00
BBL/D/1K
20.78 20.68 20.58 20.48 19.76
External Debt 7833.40
EUR Million
7715 7663 7590 7499 6214
Terrorism Index 1.49
0.89 0.71 0.53 0.35 0.71
Tourist Arrivals 2465389.00
599500 1164400 2422100 773200 803100
Remittances 165.76
EUR Million
147 163 167 169 171
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 70.95
percent
69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 68.8
Government Budget -2.20
percent of GDP
-1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1
Government Budget Value -10532.00
ALL Million
-14792 -15169 -15171 -15156 -15151
Government Spending 41449.00
ALL Million
43182 43860 44398 44947 49034
Government Revenues 390445.00
ALL Million
179955 138300 130086 128868 128746
Government Debt 1024491.00
ALL Million
1009423 1002394 993449 985412 860792
Fiscal Expenditure 400977.00
ALL Million
161202 135640 141565 144276 144141
Military Expenditure 141.80
USD Million
130 134 138 142 141
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence -0.50
Index Points
-1.66 -3.59 -5.07 -2.5 -5
Industrial Production 6.00
percent
8.14 8.55 9.19 9.62 10.61
Changes in Inventories 192706.26
ALL Million
64446 90624 116801 142979 73739
Internet Speed 6792.76
KBps
7034 7184 7166 7046 6576
IP Addresses 122132.00
IP
113726 111267 111823 110329 103243
Mining Production 2.60
percent
11.77 10.08 12.37 13.81 16.03
Manufacturing Production 8.20
percent
9.85 9.63 8.8 8.33 7.9
Competitiveness Index 4.18
Points
4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.92
Competitiveness Rank 75.00
77 77 77 77 101
Corruption Index 39.00
Points
38 39 39 39 35
Corruption Rank 83.00
82 82 82 82 108
Ease of Doing Business 65.00
83 86 89 91 80
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -8.70
Index Points
-10.5 -10.84 -10.63 -10 -12
Retail Sales YoY 1.09
percent
5.23 5.4 4.96 4.65 4.73
Consumer Spending 274726.00
ALL Million
298927 306297 315274 323024 373503
Gasoline Prices 1.61
USD/Liter
1.64 1.66 1.66 1.65 1.54
Consumer Credit 169084.30
ALL Million
169858 169784 169461 169023 163312
Economic Optimism Index 110.70
108 107 105 104 102
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Construction Output 18.60
percent
13.49 12.64 12.01 11.73 11.32
Building Permits 310.00
202 265 172 157 120
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
14 14 14 14 13
Personal Income Tax Rate 23.00
percent
19 19 19 19 15
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 24.50
percent
25 25 25 25 26
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.00
percent
15.43 15.43 15.43 15.43 15.85
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.50
percent
9.93 9.93 9.93 9.93 10.35
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 1.95
mm
93.81 72.14 46.83 124 86.11
Temperature 3.89
celsius
4.85 15.79 21.04 8.9 12.92