Albania - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Albania including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Albania economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.65 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 13.60 13.2 13 13 12.7 11.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 3 percent
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.5 2 percent
Balance of Trade -25698.00 -33700 -29700 -39000 -28900 -38500 ALL Million
Government Debt to GDP 69.92 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.2 68.8 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 107.70
108 110 112 114 123
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.65
percent
0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.36
percent
3.2 3 2.7 2.8 2.2
GDP 11.93
USD Billion
11.8 12.1 12.45 13.69 14.55
GDP Constant Prices 367049.00
ALL Million
368055 369178 375297 371083 393142
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 119162.00
ALL Million
98803 91888 124104 75254 130005
GDP per capita 4711.99
USD
4750 4750 4750 4890 4970
GDP per capita PPP 11424.63
USD
11499 11621 11742 12275 12346
GDP From Agriculture 65506.00
ALL Million
65165 66034 68181 66666 71423
GDP From Construction 35560.00
ALL Million
39341 36948 36620 37393 38362
GDP From Manufacturing 24360.00
ALL Million
22417 23162 21610 22323 22638
GDP From Mining 46763.00
ALL Million
49369 44762 48606 49299 50917
GDP From Public Administration 42206.00
ALL Million
40707 42771 42726 41010 44757
GDP From Services 57108.00
ALL Million
58174 60117 60029 58099 62883
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.60
percent
13.2 13 13 12.7 11.5
Employed Persons 1123.00
Thousand
1106 1106 1106 1106 1106
Unemployed Persons 85.00
Thousand
87.38 87.57 87.53 87.54 87.54
Labor Force Participation Rate 67.40
percent
67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1
Wages 61600.00
ALL/Month
61200 61300 61500 61800 64000
Minimum Wages 24000.00
ALL/Month
24000 24000 24000 25000 25000
Population 2.88
Million
2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.85
Retirement Age Women 60.67
60.67 60.67 60.67 60.83 61
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Employment Rate 58.20
percent
57.73 57.73 57.73 57.73 57.73
Youth Unemployment Rate 24.60
percent
25.65 25.68 25.68 25.68 25.68
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10
percent
2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 3
Inflation Rate Mom -0.50
percent
-0.15 0.38 0.15 0.15 0.18
Consumer Price Index CPI 106.20
Index Points
105 106 107 110 113
Producer Prices 102.80
Index Points
105 104 106 105 112
Producer Prices Change 2.01
percent
3.6 3.2 2.9 1.83 2.8
Harmonised Consumer Prices 107.80
Index Points
106 107 108 112 114
Food Inflation 3.10
percent
3.34 3.39 3.4 3.4 3.4
CPI Transportation 101.40
Index Points
102 103 104 105 110
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.25
percent
1.25 1.25 1.25 1.5 2
Money Supply M0 392310.13
ALL Million
403017 402545 402451 402433 402429
Money Supply M1 443566.24
ALL Million
460709 464365 467420 469964 480720
Money Supply M2 715263.79
ALL Million
730330 732746 735277 737807 764718
Money Supply M3 1238422.60
ALL Million
1253308 1253676 1252340 1251580 1250403
Banks Balance Sheet 1449456.58
ALL Million
1468070 1464533 1461905 1459952 1454516
Deposit Interest Rate 0.25
percent
0.25 0.25 0.25 0.5 1
Lending Rate 2.25
percent
2.25 2.25 2.25 2.5 3
Loans To Private Sector 331651.70
ALL Million
336144 336161 336162 336162 336162
Central Bank Balance Sheet 503600.94
ALL Million
499071 512075 516381 507739 510029
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -25698.00
ALL Million
-33700 -29700 -39000 -28900 -38500
Exports 26704.00
ALL Million
23400 25100 22500 26200 25500
Imports 52402.00
ALL Million
57100 54800 61500 55100 64000
Current Account -294.53
EUR Million
-279 -129 -266 -141 -223
Current Account to GDP -12.10
percent
-6.6 -6.6 -6.6 -4.9 -4.2
Capital Flows -374.91
EUR Million
-222 -221 -221 -221 -221
Gold Reserves 1.60
Tonnes
1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57
Foreign Direct Investment 232.20
EUR Million
249 249 249 249 249
External Debt 7927.80
EUR Million
7844 7844 7844 7844 7844
Crude Oil Production 21.00
BBL/D/1K
20.78 20.69 20.59 20.49 19.53
Terrorism Index 1.49
0.95 1 1.04 1 0.74
Tourist Arrivals 1706295.00
1199600 1721200 1352700 1613000 1502900
Remittances 172.34
EUR Million
163 167 169 155 171
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.92
percent
69.5 69.5 69.5 69.2 68.8
Government Budget -2.00
percent of GDP
-1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -2.43 -1
Government Budget Value 5195.00
ALL Million
136 -1840 -3779 -2436 -2823
Government Spending 43396.00
ALL Million
41716 42071 46559 37836 48773
Government Revenues 105380.00
ALL Million
258762 236701 192909 216604 214199
Government Debt 1036964.00
ALL Million
1038008 1033577 1033078 1031518 960014
Fiscal Expenditure 100185.00
ALL Million
258626 238540 197595 219040 217022
Military Expenditure 151.55
USD Million
134 137 141 142 141
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 2.40
Index Points
1.9 1.9 -2.5 1.9 -5
Industrial Production 3.00
percent
-5.35 -2.4 -0.44 1.84 0.06
Changes in Inventories 128787.00
ALL Million
94503 123793 153084 152595 151026
Internet Speed 6792.76
KBps
7698 8060 8292 8336 9890
IP Addresses 122132.00
IP
121295 123815 121883 124496 123121
Manufacturing Production 4.50
percent
5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95
Ease of Doing Business 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Competitiveness Index 4.18
Points
4.12 4.12 4.12 4.12 4.12
Competitiveness Rank 75.00
77 77 77 77 77
Corruption Index 38.00
Points
38 38 38 38 38
Corruption Rank 91.00
91 91 91 91 91
Mining Production 0.75
percent
10.08 12.37 13.81 14.4 16.03
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -10.90
Index Points
-8.65 -8.34 -10 -8.37 -12
Retail Sales YoY -3.20
percent
1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35
Consumer Spending 266063.00
ALL Million
302706 278847 275164 261580 288248
Gasoline Prices 1.58
USD/Liter
1.51 1.42 1.34 1.26 0.88
Economic Optimism Index 110.70
112 114 112 114 113
Consumer Credit 170264.10
ALL Million
169618 167691 165204 162962 164152
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Construction Output 7.50
percent
12.64 12.01 11.73 11.55 11.32
Building Permits 211.00
212 302 213 301 217
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 14 13
Personal Income Tax Rate 23.00
percent
23 23 23 19 15
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 24.50
percent
24.5 24.5 24.5 25 25
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.00
percent
15.43 15.43 15.43 15.43 15.85
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.50
percent
9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 1.95
mm
72.14 46.83 124 94 86.11
Temperature 3.89
celsius
15.79 21.04 8.9 4.86 12.92