UAE Non-Oil Private Sector Growth Remains Strong

The S&P Global UAE PMI edged down to 54.8 in October 2026 from 55.3 in September, but remained indicative of a solid improvement in non-oil private sector activity. Output continued to expand strongly, while new order growth accelerated, supported by stronger domestic and foreign demand. New export orders rose at the fastest pace in exactly two years. Meanwhile, input cost inflation accelerated to its highest level since June 2022, driven by higher prices for raw materials, fuel, energy, freight and rents. Firms passed on rising costs, pushing output price inflation to its highest level since the survey began in August 2009. Employment fell fractionally for the third time in five months as some firms sought to contain costs, while backlogs of work continued to increase amid strong demand. Business confidence nevertheless improved to its highest level since January, supported by expectations of robust demand and improving regional conditions.

The S&P Global UAE PMI was unchanged at 55.3 in September 2026, matching August's 20-month high and signalling a marked improvement in non-oil private sector business conditions. Growth was supported by a rapid increase in output, which accelerated to a seven-month high, while new orders continued to rise markedly despite easing from August's seven-month high. Export demand also strengthened, with new business from abroad expanding for a third consecutive month and at the fastest pace since November 2024. Stronger demand gave firms greater pricing power, pushing output price inflation to its highest since May 2011, while purchase costs rose at the fastest pace in three months amid higher raw material and freight charges. Employment resumed a modest increase after falling in August, although outstanding business accumulated sharply again as workloads remained elevated. Purchasing activity also rose rapidly, while input inventories increased at the fastest pace since November 2023.

The S&P Global UAE PMI rose to 55.3 in August 2026 from 52.7 in July, marking the fastest improvement in non-oil private sector business conditions since December 2024. Growth was driven by a sharp rise in new business, which grew at the joint-strongest pace in over two years, while output growth accelerated to a six-month high. Export demand also expanded for a second month after declining throughout Q2. Purchasing activity increased sharply, allowing firms to build input inventories at the fastest pace in nearly three years, while improved supplier performance and greater reliance on local vendors eased supply constraints. Input cost inflation slowed to its lowest since February despite higher energy and construction material prices, while selling price inflation remained modest amid competition. Employment fell for the second time in three months as firms remained cautious about hiring amid regional uncertainty, although business confidence improved to its highest since April.