UAE Non-Oil Sector Private Rebounds to 4-Month High

The S&P Global UAE PMI rose to 52.7 in July 2026 from 50.8 in June, marking the strongest improvement in non-oil private sector business conditions since March after June's more than five-year low. Growth was driven by a five-month high in new orders, as easing regional tensions, stronger client spending, and domestic infrastructure projects supported demand. Export orders also returned to growth for the first time since March. Moreover, business output expanded, while employment returned to growth after June's contraction as firms responded to stronger demand with renewed hiring. Purchasing activity remained robust, though inventories declined amid supply shortages and delays in imported deliveries. Meanwhile, input cost inflation stayed elevated, while selling price inflation remained modest amid intense competition. Business confidence weakened for a third straight month to its lowest level since March, with only 7% of firms expecting output to increase over the coming year.

The S&P Global UAE PMI fell to 50.8 in June 2026 from 52.6 in the previous month, signaling the weakest improvement in non-oil private sector business conditions since February 2021. Business activity expanded at its slowest pace in five years as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, cautious client spending, and intense competition weighed on growth. New business growth accelerated to a three-month high but remained well below its historical average as customers delayed spending decisions and tourism activity stayed subdued. Employment declined for the first time in more than four years, posting its sharpest contraction since August 2020. Meanwhile, purchasing activity rebounded after May's decline as businesses restocked inventories. However, input cost inflation remained elevated, driven by higher transport fees and commodity prices. Despite softer current activity, business confidence stayed broadly stable, supported by confirmed contracts and continued government investment.

The S&P Global UAE PMI rose to 52.6 in May 2026 from 52.1 in the previous month, signaling a modest improvement in non-oil private sector business conditions. Output growth accelerated to a three-month high, supported by stronger demand, project expansion, and government-backed initiatives. However, growth remained subdued overall as regional geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruptions, and rising operating costs weighed on activity. New business growth remained near April's 62-month low, while export sales continued to decline. Meanwhile, employment growth slowed to its weakest pace since October amid softer demand, higher costs, and increased automation. Supply-chain conditions deteriorated, with delivery times lengthening to the greatest extent since April 2020 due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while input costs rose at the second-fastest pace in nearly two years, driven by higher material and transport costs.