Thailand Inflation Picks Up in September

Thailand’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.82% in September 2026 from 2.53% in August, but came in below market expectations of 3.10%. The reading marked the highest level since April, bringing inflation closer to the upper end of the Bank of Thailand’s 1%-3% target range. The acceleration was driven largely by higher oil and processed food prices, reflecting elevated raw material costs and the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, annual core inflation rose to 1.50% from 1.44% in August, reaching its highest level since May 2023 but remaining slightly below market forecasts of 1.54%. Headline inflation is expected to accelerate further in the fourth quarter, with October’s rate projected to rise from September’s level, Trade Policy and Strategy Office chief Nantapong Chiralerspong said. He added that recent flooding is expected to have only a limited impact on inflation. The Commerce Ministry expects headline inflation to average 1.80%-2.20% this year.

Thailand’s annual inflation rate accelerated for the first time in four months to 2.53% in August 2026, from 1.95% in July, surpassing market expectations of 2.2%. It was the fastest increase since May, boosted by higher domestic fuel prices amid rising oil prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. However, the latest reading remained within the Bank of Thailand’s 1%-3% target range. Non-food inflation rose by 2.23%, while food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation increased by 2.99%. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile energy and fresh food prices, accelerated to 1.44% in August 2026 from 1.34% in July, marking the highest reading since May 2023 and exceeding forecasts of 1.33%. Thailand's Ministry of Commerce maintained its 2026 headline inflation forecast at 1.5%-2.5%, with a 2.0% midpoint. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.56%, rebounding from a 0.73% decline in July and marking the fastest increase in four months.

The annual inflation rate in Thailand eased to 1.95% in July 2026 from 2.42% in June and below market expectations of 2.55%. The reading remained within the Bank of Thailand’s 1%-3% target range, with Nantapong Chiralerspong, director-general of the Commerce Ministry, attributing the slowdown mainly to a sharp decline in domestic fuel prices in July, in line with lower global oil prices. Thailand had been particularly vulnerable to the shock due to its reliance on crude oil imports from the region, with higher energy costs earlier this year lifting inflation after a year-long period of deflation. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and fresh food prices, accelerated to 1.34% in July from 1.23% in June, reflecting higher input costs for personal-care products and prepared food. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.73%, following a 0.34% decline in June. The Commerce Ministry expects headline inflation to rise in August and sees it averaging 2.09% in Q3.