Thailand - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Thailand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Thailand economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.9 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 1.20 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 percent
Inflation Rate 1.07 1.1 1.7 1.5 1 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.75 1.75 2 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade 1270.00 3446 1329 992 1056 1135 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 41.80 47 47 47 45 46 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 32.19
 31.48 31.75 32.01 32.28 33.38
Stock Market 1161.26
points		 1113 1091 1068 1046 963
Government Bond 10Y 2.67
percent		 2.53 2.63 2.72 2.83 3.27
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50
percent		 0.9 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.00
percent		 4 3.9 4.1 4.2 3
GDP 406.84
USD Billion		 436 405 436 444 448
GDP Constant Prices 2580979.00
THB Million		 2595963 2619346 2686799 2618728 2872564
Gross National Product 4839.07
THB Billion		 4936 4933 5239 5042 5601
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 620109.00
THB Million		 608287 610698 645533 648320 690166
GDP per capita 5901.40
USD		 6031 6046 5972 6045 6027
GDP per capita PPP 15681.80
USD		 15647 15923 15647 17011 16200
GDP From Agriculture 119074.00
THB Million		 139242 129932 123956 129711 132526
GDP From Construction 70897.00
THB Million		 70576 72092 73804 77157 78907
GDP From Manufacturing 722532.00
THB Million		 704109 703799 752156 712058 804160
GDP From Mining 60256.00
THB Million		 59193 58671 62726 62499 67063
GDP From Public Administration 127207.00
THB Million		 130304 128472 132422 132825 141578
GDP From Transport 270521.00
THB Million		 267121 269524 281612 266848 301083
GDP From Utilities 84086.00
THB Million		 83597 86295 87534 83884 93586
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 1.20
percent		 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5
Employed Persons 37341.90
Thousand 		39576 37450 38900 37451 39500
Unemployed Persons 440.30
Thousand 		418 464 380 461 458
Job Vacancies 29626.00
 33100 34066 32000 33919 42022
Wages 13721.14
THB/Month		 13800 14000 14310 14350 14800
Wages in Manufacturing 12593.68
THB/Month		 12670 12820 13190 12672 13770
Minimum Wages 325.00
THB/Day		 308 308 308 308 315
Population 66.19
Million		 66.39 66.46 66.54 66.62 67.45
Productivity 119.18
Index Points		 116 114 110 119 111
Labour Costs 93.29
Index Points		 104 99.2 101 99.2 104
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.20
percent		 5.3 4.35 4.3 4.34 4.8
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.07
percent		 1.1 1.7 1.5 1 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom -0.09
percent		 0.2 -0.11 0.2 -0.11 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.57
Index Points		 102 103 103 102 107
Core Consumer Prices 101.78
Index Points		 102 102 102 102 104
Core Inflation Rate 0.64
percent		 0.64 0.65 0.7 0.65 1
GDP Deflator 151.90
Index Points		 146 156 153 156 163
Producer Prices 102.00
Index Points		 109 101 115 101 124
Export Prices 101.19
Index Points		 123 102 126 102 138
Import Prices 93.30
Index Points		 102 93.43 106 93.37 114
Food Inflation 0.68
percent		 2.5 2.29 2.3 2.5 2.85
CPI Housing Utilities 100.10
Index Points		 100 101 101 101 106
CPI Transportation 102.03
Index Points		 100 102 103 102 107
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent		 1.5 1.75 1.75 2 2.25
Money Supply M0 1419698.00
THB Million		 1420000 1379061 1450000 1387781 1550000
Money Supply M1 2010.90
THB Billion		 1980 1993 2060 1988 2300
Money Supply M3 19551.11
THB Billion		 19800 19493 20800 19506 22700
Banks Balance Sheet 18774368.00
THB Million		 18563326 18128346 17841508 17839789 18155601
Foreign Exchange Reserves 214700.00
USD Million		 187000 198973 196000 193353 200000
Loans to Private Sector 3940701.00
THB Million		 3898820 3910361 3914125 3912158 3911576
Deposit Interest Rate 1.40
percent		 1.4 1.65 1.65 1.9 2.15
Interbank Rate 1.58
percent		 1.57 1.82 1.82 2.07 2.32
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7674567.00
THB Million		 7684224 7703718 7550000 7710476 7850000
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 1270.00
USD Million		 3446 1329 992 1056 1135
Exports 22362.25
USD Million		 21089 19687 18309 19869 20045
Imports 21095.59
USD Million		 17643 18358 17317 18813 18910
Current Account 5751.14
USD Million		 4900 4721 4700 4725 5000
Current Account to GDP 10.60
percent		 4.6 4.6 4.6 6.2 7.6
External Debt 148995.34
USD Million		 143000 152746 152546 153206 139000
Terms of Trade 108.46
Index Points		 122 109 119 109 121
Tourist Arrivals 3497260.00
 3829464 3215500 3332024 3209400 3635200
Gold Reserves 154.00
Tonnes		 152 155 152 156 152
Terrorism Index 6.61
 7.1 6.54 7.1 6.6 6.8
Remittances 12053.00
THB Billion		 12100 12504 15182 12474 22000
Crude Oil Production 243.00
BBL/D/1K		 210 237 220 236 250
Foreign Direct Investment 18427.03
THB Million		 18300 21820 10700 21820 24000
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.80
percent		 47 47 47 45 46
Government Budget -2.70
percent of GDP		 -2.8 -2.63 -2.8 -2.53 -3
Government Budget Value 22596.00
THB Million		 45716 51069 9000 59883 45000
Government Spending 392694.00
THB Million		 387516 381521 408794 403296 437059
Government Revenues 186380.00
THB Million		 203882 199370 195000 195779 251000
Fiscal Expenditure 163784.00
THB Million		 158166 148301 186000 135896 206000
Military Expenditure 6075.70
USD Million		 6836 6176 6836 6302 7991
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 49.50
Index Points		 51 49.46 50.8 48.69 52
Industrial Production 2.62
percent		 4.37 4.4 1.4 4.4 1.38
Industrial Production Mom 9.90
percent		 1.4 0.46 -0.5 0.47 0.6
Capacity Utilization 68.08
Index Points		 64.2 66.05 65.6 65.93 67.1
Changes in Inventories 97314.00
THB Million		 10780 -1245 30400 1774 29400
Car Registrations 32680.00
 33102 35868 30776 35664 38500
Leading Economic Index 146.34
Index Points		 164 136 166 136 173
Internet Speed 15999.07
KBps		 17213 17468 17464 17220 14206
IP Addresses 2822892.00
IP		 2584442 2572798 2584854 2565739 2572084
Total Vehicle Sales 95062.00
 73155 78937 100740 74914 119710
Manufacturing Pmi 49.50
 51.1 49.9 50.2 50 51.1
Cement Production 3830.81
Thousands of Ton 		3341 3336 3342 3344 3344
Car Production 195257.00
 193000 165891 152000 159184 180000
Coincident Index 127.74
Index Points		 134 128 138 128 145
Competitiveness Index 4.72
Points		 4.8 4.68 4.8 4.68 5
Competitiveness Rank 32.00
 32 33 32 33 27
Corruption Index 37.00
Points		 42 36 42 36 43
Corruption Rank 96.00
 80 96 80 96 77
Ease of Doing Business 26.00
 40 26 40 26 35
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 80.90
Index Points		 79 78.08 82.8 77.71 78
Retail Sales YoY 9.10
percent		 3.4 11.82 4.6 11.93 5.1
Consumer Spending 1308888.00
THB Million		 1321947 1324442 1362552 1334004 1456759
Disposable Personal Income 7931560.00
THB Million		 7770074 7831168 7892262 7925507 8761365
Personal Savings 8.70
percent		 8.79 8.58 8.5 8.34 8.7
Bank Lending Rate 7.00
percent		 7 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.75
Personal Spending 0.20
percent		 0.11 0.25 1.2 0.24 1.3
Consumer Credit 4167748.00
THB Million		 4030812 4030759 4030761 4030761 4030761
Gasoline Prices 1.12
USD/Liter		 1.05 0.99 0.94 0.88 0.61
Households Debt To Gdp 67.90
percent of GDP		 68 68 75.2 68 76.8
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 137.70
Index points		 136 140 138 141 140
Housing Starts 11250.00
 12100 8603 13100 8408 14900
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent		 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 7.00
percent		 7 7 7 7 7
Social Security Rate 10.00
percent		 10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00
percent		 5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00
percent		 5 5 5 5 5
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 27.55
celsius		 28.1 26.87 24.26 24.95 26.62