Thailand - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Thailand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Thailand economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 1.00 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.6 2.2 percent
Inflation Rate 0.68 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade -278.13 3445 3445 279 293 135 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 41.20 47 47 40.07 47 46 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 31.29
32.16 32.41 32.65 32.9 33.91
Stock Market 1171.83
points
1165 1143 1121 1100 945
Government Bond 10Y 2.43
percent
2.47 2.57 2.67 2.77 3.23
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00
percent
1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.30
percent
3.1 3.3 4.1 3.8 3
GDP 406.84
USD Billion
436 436 400 436 448
GDP Constant Prices 2566342.00
THB Million
2577239 2591350 2586115 2621141 2783469
Gross National Product 4839.07
THB Billion
5800 5800 4848 5800 6300
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 598151.00
THB Million
658510 658510 558776 689099 750325
GDP per capita 5901.40
USD
6031 6031 5938 5983 6114
GDP per capita PPP 15681.80
USD
15647 15647 15749 15647 16200
GDP From Agriculture 133680.00
THB Million
134500 130974 133059 131000 145000
GDP From Construction 67881.00
THB Million
82000 83649 62388 91300 100200
GDP From Manufacturing 710970.00
THB Million
710000 720000 706624 718000 731000
GDP From Mining 55620.00
THB Million
61800 64000 54205 62900 65500
GDP From Public Administration 125645.00
THB Million
138000 138000 125734 144000 151000
GDP From Transport 271149.00
THB Million
252000 252000 276761 287000 332000
GDP From Utilities 84731.00
THB Million
90100 90100 85188 97600 111000
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 1.00
percent
1.5 1.6 1.2 1.6 2.2
Employed Persons 37190.90
Thousand
38200 39576 37079 38900 39500
Unemployed Persons 363.90
Thousand
418 418 452 380 458
Job Vacancies 25389.00
33100 33100 33914 32000 42022
Wages 13877.70
THB/Month
14100 14200 13779 14310 14800
Wages in Manufacturing 12745.00
THB/Month
12320 12670 12820 13190 13770
Minimum Wages 305.00
THB/Day
305 308 308 308 315
Population 65.93
Million
66.26 66.33 66.4 66.47 66.75
Productivity 110.25
Index Points
116 116 113 110 111
Labour Costs 98.42
Index Points
104 104 98.98 101 104
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.20
percent
5.3 5.3 4.37 4.3 4.8
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.68
percent
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom -0.08
percent
0.2 0.2 0.15 0.2 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.44
Index Points
101 101 102 102 105
Core Consumer Prices 101.64
Index Points
109 109 102 110 111
Core Inflation Rate 0.58
percent
0.64 0.8 0.95 1.5 1.5
GDP Deflator 154.91
Index Points
146 146 152 153 163
Producer Prices 101.90
Index Points
109 109 102 115 124
Export Prices 104.36
Index Points
123 123 103 126 138
Import Prices 95.59
Index Points
102 102 94.07 106 114
Food Inflation 0.09
percent
2.5 2.5 1.59 2.3 2.85
CPI Housing Utilities 98.50
Index Points
98.3 98.05 97.99 97.96 97.65
CPI Transportation 101.10
Index Points
100 100 100 104 108
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.25
Money Supply M0 1437578.00
THB Million
1420000 1420000 1453035 1450000 1550000
Money Supply M1 2061.00
THB Billion
1980 1980 2085 2060 2300
Money Supply M3 19246.95
THB Billion
19800 19800 20189 20800 22700
Banks Balance Sheet 18386794.00
THB Million
18514718 18532684 18514946 18485962 18124532
Foreign Exchange Reserves 214665.10
USD Million
187000 187000 224682 196000 200000
Loans to Private Sector 3970546.00
THB Million
3986235 3986542 3982631 3977672 3915761
Deposit Interest Rate 1.40
percent
1.76 1.76 1.8 1.83 2
Interbank Rate 1.57
percent
1.68 1.68 1.63 1.72 2.25
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7424233.00
THB Million
7411591 7397031 7382254 7550000 7850000
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -278.13
USD Million
3445 3445 279 293 135
Exports 19741.10
USD Million
21089 21089 19752 18309 20045
Imports 20019.23
USD Million
17643 17643 19642 17317 18910
Current Account 3856.05
USD Million
4900 4900 2328 4700 5000
Current Account to GDP 11.50
percent
4.6 4.6 8.14 4.6 7.6
External Debt 148338.37
USD Million
143000 143000 150563 149922 139000
Terms of Trade 109.18
Index Points
109 108 108 108 106
Tourist Arrivals 3535590.00
3829464 3829464 3138100 3332024 3635200
Gold Reserves 152.41
Tonnes
152 152 150 152 152
Terrorism Index 6.61
7.1 7.1 6.54 7.1 6.8
Remittances 11412.00
THB Billion
12100 12100 10724 15182 22000
Crude Oil Production 237.00
BBL/D/1K
210 210 234 220 250
Foreign Direct Investment 12941.90
THB Million
18300 18300 20344 10700 24000
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.20
percent
47 47 40.07 47 46
Government Budget -2.70
percent of GDP
-2.8 -2.8 -2.27 -2.8 -3
Government Budget Value -47063.00
THB Million
22827 -5285 -8876 -5263 -582
Government Spending 373404.00
THB Million
406750 406750 377563 408884 425240
Government Revenues 208807.00
THB Million
187103 174337 165835 195000 251000
Fiscal Expenditure 245913.00
THB Million
237193 225129 212978 186000 206000
Military Expenditure 6047.10
USD Million
6836 6836 6066 6836 7991
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 52.50
Index Points
51 51 49.41 50.8 52
Industrial Production 2.35
percent
4.14 5.3 5.98 1.4 1.38
Industrial Production Mom 4.10
percent
1.4 1.4 0.39 -0.5 0.6
Capacity Utilization 61.97
Index Points
63.6 64.2 62.38 65.6 67.1
Changes in Inventories -34759.00
THB Million
10780 10780 -10345 30400 29400
Car Registrations 35849.00
33102 33102 30427 30776 38500
Leading Economic Index 162.07
Index Points
164 164 163 166 173
Internet Speed 15999.07
KBps
17411 17213 17468 17464 15517
IP Addresses 2822892.00
IP
2541520 2451927 2472057 2418324 2416882
Total Vehicle Sales 104302.00
73155 73155 86250 100740 119710
Manufacturing Pmi 50.60
51.1 51.1 49.86 50.2 51.1
Cement Production 3397.17
Thousands of Ton
3269 3216 3188 3166 2959
Car Production 190385.00
193000 193000 165891 152000 180000
Coincident Index 130.77
Index Points
134 134 130 138 145
Competitiveness Index 4.72
Points
4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 5
Competitiveness Rank 32.00
32 32 33 32 27
Corruption Index 35.00
Points
42 42 36 42 43
Corruption Rank 101.00
80 80 98 80 77
Ease of Doing Business 26.00
40 40 20 40 35
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 80.00
Index Points
79 79 79.66 82.8 78
Retail Sales YoY 7.80
percent
3.4 3.4 7.02 4.6 5.1
Consumer Spending 1299440.00
THB Million
1290000 1290000 1305874 1340000 1420000
Disposable Personal Income 7550115.40
THB Million
7637662 7637052 7636442 7635831 7652264
Personal Savings 8.70
percent
8.95 8.99 9.03 8.5 8.7
Bank Lending Rate 7.00
percent
6.9 6.9 7.2 6.8 6.5
Personal Spending -0.40
percent
0.29 0.24 0.27 1.2 1.3
Consumer Credit 4125477.00
THB Million
4199693 4279112 4343358 4403835 4581261
Gasoline Prices 1.08
USD/Liter
1.1 1.1 1.07 1.2 1.4
Households Debt To Gdp 68.90
percent of GDP
67.2 66.61 65.99 75.2 76.8
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 133.90
Index points
136 136 134 138 140
Housing Starts 10538.00
12100 12100 8788 13100 14900
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
21 21 21 21 22
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 36
Sales Tax Rate 7.00
percent
7 7 7 7 7
Social Security Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00
percent
5 5 4.79 4.79 4.72
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00
percent
5 5 4.79 4.79 4.72
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 27.55
celsius
24.9 28.1 26.87 24.26 26.62