Thailand - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Thailand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Thailand economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.8 1.5 1.3 1 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 1.00 1 1 1 1 1.1 percent
Inflation Rate 1.62 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.75 1.75 2 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade -588.14 304 970 2250 1290 690 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 41.80 43 43 45 45 46 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 32.36
 32.82 32.94 33.06 33.19 33.68
Stock Market 1159.54
points		 1131 1120 1109 1099 1057
Government Bond 10Y 2.71
percent		 2.66 2.69 2.72 2.76 2.89
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00
percent		 0.8 1.5 1.3 1 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.60
percent		 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.2 3
GDP 455.22
USD Billion		 475 475 494 494 510
GDP Constant Prices 2661705.00
THB Million		 2625985 2688184 2748728 2773497 2879582
Gross National Product 2623744.00
THB Billion		 2550810 2772130 2905612 2733941 2969506
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 628096.00
THB Million		 615373 642087 660404 654476 687803
GDP per capita 6125.70
USD		 6375 6375 6445 6445 6641
GDP per capita PPP 16277.70
USD		 16588 16588 17012 17012 16200
GDP From Agriculture 149944.00
THB Million		 130553 124181 140072 156242 133023
GDP From Construction 71914.00
THB Million		 72025 74315 76880 74934 79606
GDP From Manufacturing 720045.00
THB Million		 732204 746656 750860 750287 799818
GDP From Mining 58210.00
THB Million		 58864 62711 61567 60655 67176
GDP From Public Administration 126699.00
THB Million		 128882 132543 133023 132020 141980
GDP From Transport 279708.00
THB Million		 270343 281900 286236 291456 301971
GDP From Utilities 83200.00
THB Million		 86360 87007 86352 86694 93202
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 1.00
percent		 1 1 1 1 1.1
Employed Persons 38629.30
Thousand 		38300 38900 38200 37900 39500
Unemployed Persons 382.50
Thousand 		397 410 407 391 437
Job Vacancies 23402.00
 28000 32000 35000 31000 42000
Wages 13788.56
THB/Month		 13850 13940 13680 13790 14700
Wages in Manufacturing 12660.43
THB/Month		 12800 13100 12700 12500 13700
Minimum Wages 325.00
THB/Day		 325 325 334 334 345
Population 66.19
Million		 66.5 66.5 66.9 66.9 68
Productivity 124.10
Index Points		 111 125 126 115 131
Labour Costs 89.45
Index Points		 87 85 89 92 81
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.20
percent		 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.8
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.62
percent		 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom -0.05
percent		 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.27
Index Points		 103 103 103 104 107
Core Consumer Prices 102.11
Index Points		 102 102 102 103 104
Core Inflation Rate 0.75
percent		 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1
GDP Deflator 154.02
Index Points		 157 153 148 152 158
Producer Prices 102.40
Index Points		 103 101 101 103 104
Export Prices 107.67
Index Points		 108 108 108 108 110
Import Prices 99.81
Index Points		 101 103 104 105 109
Food Inflation 0.80
percent		 0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.8
Producer Prices Change 1.10
percent		 0.8 -0.5 -1 -0.1 2.1
CPI Housing Utilities 100.30
Index Points		 101 101 102 102 106
CPI Transportation 103.83
Index Points		 102 103 103 105 107
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent		 1.5 1.75 1.75 2 2.25
Money Supply M0 1377594.00
THB Million		 1390000 1410000 1395000 1391000 1477000
Money Supply M1 1983.90
THB Billion		 2060 2100 2070 2055 2300
Money Supply M3 19503.45
THB Billion		 19600 19750 19900 20200 21700
Banks Balance Sheet 18758518.00
THB Million		 18800000 18950000 19070000 19100000 19700000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 204500.00
USD Million		 204100 204300 203900 203300 202300
Loans to Private Sector 4027249.00
THB Million		 4031000 4037000 4039000 4041000 4056000
Deposit Interest Rate 1.29
percent		 1.29 1.54 1.54 1.79 2.04
Interbank Rate 1.59
percent		 1.59 1.84 1.84 2.09 2.34
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7766438.00
THB Million		 7792584 7550000 7788757 7788910 7850000
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -588.14
USD Million		 304 970 2250 1290 690
Exports 22794.45
USD Million		 20900 18900 20850 20990 22000
Imports 23382.59
USD Million		 20596 17930 18600 19700 21310
Current Account 1090.00
USD Million		 2940 4200 4350 4390 5000
Current Account to GDP 10.60
percent		 8.6 8.6 7.3 7.3 6.5
External Debt 152733.25
USD Million		 152900 153100 132500 152800 156000
Terms of Trade 107.88
Index Points		 107 105 104 103 101
Tourist Arrivals 3175980.00
 3230000 3270000 3300000 3250000 3330000
Gold Reserves 154.00
Tonnes		 154 154 154 154 154
Terrorism Index 6.61
 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.8
Remittances 11493.00
THB Billion		 11700 12220 11900 12150 14000
Crude Oil Production 229.00
BBL/D/1K		 243 245 244 239 250
Foreign Direct Investment 27443.32
THB Million		 21900 18700 21300 34500 24000
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.80
percent		 43 43 45 45 46
Government Budget -2.70
percent of GDP		 -2.8 -2.8 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9
Government Budget Value 82920.00
THB Million		 8610 -3500 7800 10900 35000
Government Spending 387102.00
THB Million		 382896 409702 408123 403360 438873
Government Revenues 181024.00
THB Million		 221060 195000 211800 218100 241000
Fiscal Expenditure 177221.00
THB Million		 212450 198500 204000 207200 206000
Military Expenditure 6075.70
USD Million		 6129 6129 6151 6151 6198
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 51.40
Index Points		 51.2 52.5 50.1 50.8 52
Industrial Production 4.60
percent		 3.3 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.1
Industrial Production Mom -0.50
percent		 0.6 -0.4 0.9 1.3 0.6
Capacity Utilization 69.55
Index Points		 69.7 70 69.5 69.3 67.1
Changes in Inventories -12358.00
THB Million		 -12500 4200 9600 -10920 29400
Car Registrations 39771.00
 39830 34700 33900 40200 37200
Leading Economic Index 150.51
Index Points		 151 151 152 152 159
Internet Speed 15999.07
KBps		 16100 16220 16350 16490 17000
IP Addresses 2822892.00
IP		 2890000 2930000 2990000 3120000 3350000
Total Vehicle Sales 86780.00
 81500 82200 85400 86600 91000
Manufacturing Pmi 49.90
 49.7 50.2 50.4 50.5 51.1
Cement Production 3425.40
Thousands of Ton 		3300 3250 3190 3450 3800
Car Production 188970.00
 178000 162000 167000 181000 180000
Coincident Index 129.57
Index Points		 130 131 129 129 145
Competitiveness Index 4.72
Points		 4.75 4.75 4.77 4.77 4.73
Competitiveness Rank 32.00
 32 32 30 30 33
Corruption Index 37.00
Points		 38 38 39 39 35
Corruption Rank 96.00
 95 95 93 93 88
Ease of Doing Business 26.00
 24 24 22 22 19
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 83.20
Index Points		 83.5 83.1 83.4 83.6 82.9
Retail Sales YoY 7.10
percent		 8.7 8.3 8.8 8.9 5.1
Consumer Spending 1351827.00
THB Million		 1327361 1363196 1385084 1408604 1460255
Disposable Personal Income 7931560.00
THB Million		 8170000 8170000 8330000 8330000 8590000
Personal Savings 10.20
percent		 8.9 8.9 8.4 8.4 8.7
Bank Lending Rate 7.00
percent		 7 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.75
Personal Spending 0.40
percent		 -0.5 0.9 1.2 0.6 1.3
Consumer Credit 4264139.00
THB Million		 4290000 4330000 4370000 4400000 4610000
Gasoline Prices 1.10
USD/Liter		 1.1 1.04 0.99 0.93 0.74
Households Debt To Gdp 68.00
percent of GDP		 68.3 68.5 68.2 67.8 76.8
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 138.30
Index points		 138 139 138 139 140
Housing Starts 7810.00
units		 7900 8100 8220 8400 8500
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent		 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 7.00
percent		 7 7 7 7 7
Social Security Rate 10.00
percent		 10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00
percent		 5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00
percent		 5 5 5 5 5
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 27.55
celsius		 26.87 24.26 24.95 26.64 26.62