Thailand | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Thailand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Thailand economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 0.9 1 1 0.9 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 1.20 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.32 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 2090.00 2791 414 3445 3445 135 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 41.20 52 52 47 47 46 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 33.20 32.84 32.51 32.17 31.84 28.19 [+]
Stock Market 1069.07 985 975 966 956 846 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.24 2.51 2.54 2.56 2.59 2.86 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 0.9 1 1 0.9 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.70 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.3 3 percent [+]
GDP 406.84 420 420 436 436 448 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2537644.00 2527317 2547271 2577239 2591350 2783469 THB Million [+]
Gross National Product 4839.07 5600 5600 5800 5800 6300 THB Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 604883.00 606996 631959 658510 658510 750325 THB Million [+]
GDP per capita 5901.40 5870 6035 6031 6031 6393 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 15681.80 15402 16042 15647 15647 16200 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 141069.00 124627 126000 134500 130974 145000 THB Million [+]
GDP From Construction 69317.00 74642 85900 82000 83649 100200 THB Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 687873.00 709445 702000 710000 720000 731000 THB Million [+]
GDP From Mining 56248.00 64821 61700 61800 64000 65500 THB Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 128379.00 128362 139000 138000 138000 151000 THB Million [+]
GDP From Transport 266670.00 260640 261000 252000 252000 332000 THB Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 81073.00 78560 91700 90100 90100 111000 THB Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 1.20 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 37977.30 37739 38700 38200 39576 39500 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 476.30 345 350 418 418 458 Thousand [+]
Job Vacancies 37985.00 41392 41258 33100 33100 42022 [+]
Wages 13619.97 13732 14200 14100 14200 14800 THB/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 12188.00 12730 12850 12320 12670 13770 THB/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 305.00 305 305 340 340 420 THB/Day [+]
Population 65.93 68.75 69.2 69.2 69.2 75.64 Million [+]
Labour Costs 97.19 104 103 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Productivity 117.29 105 109 116 116 111 Index Points [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.20 4.5 3.8 5.3 5.3 4.8 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.32 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.11 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.64 109 110 110 110 120 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.35 101 108 109 109 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.46 1.3 1.2 0.82 0.97 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 149.79 154 149 146 146 163 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 101.30 107 108 109 109 124 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 105.33 118 121 123 123 138 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 94.74 98.9 101 102 102 114 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -0.92 -0.8 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.85 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 99.18 99.3 99.36 99.38 99.39 99.4 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 99.97 98.3 99.2 100 100 108 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1288979.00 1400000 1410000 1420000 1420000 1550000 THB Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1839.50 1903 1973 1980 1980 2300 THB Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 18586.18 18932 19600 19800 19800 22700 THB Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 18008322.00 17995412 18019595 18003276 17975926 17700004 THB Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 196914.30 183290 185000 187000 187000 200000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3900878.00 3907694 3904571 3899641 3894202 3839390 THB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.40 1.5 1.5 1.76 1.76 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.57 1.59 1.72 1.68 1.68 2.25 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7069181.00 7160000 7035272 7019772 7004421 7850000 THB Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 2090.00 2791 414 3445 3445 135 USD Million [+]
Exports 21219.09 20044 17988 21089 21089 20045 USD Million [+]
Imports 19128.23 17253 17575 17643 17643 18910 USD Million [+]
Current Account 2768.24 3200 4400 4900 4900 5000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 11.50 5.8 5.8 4.6 4.6 7.6 percent [+]
External Debt 134767.11 135538 137000 143000 143000 139000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 111.18 111 110 110 109 107 Index Points [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3088040.00 2937235 3241268 3829464 3829464 3635200 [+]
Gold Reserves 152.41 152 152 152 152 152 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 6.71 6.77 7.25 7.1 7.1 6.8 [+]
Remittances 9972.00 11336 13281 12100 12100 22000 THB Billion [+]
Crude Oil Production 247.00 220 210 210 210 250 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 15530.08 20000 -3580 18300 18300 24000 THB Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.20 52 52 47 47 46 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.70 -2.4 -2.4 -2.8 -2.8 -3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 132818.00 -59052 -35411 -26147 -23433 -27902 THB Million [+]
Government Spending 392284.00 358283 399518 406750 406750 425240 THB Million [+]
Government Revenues 162014.00 263571 188000 209102 195585 251000 THB Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 198735.00 181306 199000 162945 155235 206000 THB Million [+]
Military Expenditure 6047.10 6559 6559 6836 6836 7991 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 50.70 51.4 50.5 51 51 52 [+]
Industrial Production 3.73 1.4 3.2 2.44 2.42 1.38 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.80 1.8 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.6 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 61.48 63.4 64.2 63.6 64.2 67.1 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories -53728.00 -20000 19300 10780 10780 29400 THB Million [+]
Car Registrations 33194.00 31000 26777 33102 33102 38500 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 160.18 162 163 164 164 173 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 49.50 49.6 50.6 51.1 51.1 51.1 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 67965.00 66187 92069 73155 73155 119710 [+]
Cement Production 3475.01 3297 3291 3266 3241 3043 Thousands of Ton [+]
Car Production 177415.00 159000 140250 193000 193000 180000 [+]
Coincident Index 129.33 132 132 134 134 145 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.64 4.64 4.64 4.8 4.8 5 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 34.00 34 34 32 32 27 [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 40 40 42 42 43 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 101.00 82 82 80 80 77 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 46.00 43 43 40 40 35 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 74.50 75.8 77 79 79 78 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 5.90 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.4 5.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1296708.00 1290000 1300000 1290000 1290000 1420000 THB Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 7550115.40 7831168 7892262 7925507 7958752 8647157 THB Million [+]
Personal Savings 8.70 8.4 8.4 8.62 8.66 8.7 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 7.00 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.5 percent [+]
Personal Spending 0.70 -0.2 1.1 0.25 0.26 1.3 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 3947347.00 3958697 3987622 3996928 4010731 3894183 THB Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.99 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 69.20 74 67.5 66.87 66.57 76.8 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 130.60 134 135 136 136 140 Index points [+]
Housing Starts 11503.00 13400 12600 12100 12100 14900 [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20.02 20.03 20.04 20.04 20.04 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]