Thailand Inflation Rate at 3-Month High

Thailand’s annual inflation rate accelerated for the first time in four months to 2.53% in August 2026, from 1.95% in July, surpassing market expectations of 2.2%. It was the fastest increase since May, boosted by higher domestic fuel prices amid rising oil prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. However, the latest reading remained within the Bank of Thailand’s 1%-3% target range. Non-food inflation rose by 2.23%, while food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation increased by 2.99%. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile energy and fresh food prices, accelerated to 1.44% in August 2026 from 1.34% in July, marking the highest reading since May 2023 and exceeding forecasts of 1.33%. Thailand's Ministry of Commerce maintained its 2026 headline inflation forecast at 1.5%-2.5%, with a 2.0% midpoint. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.56%, rebounding from a 0.73% decline in July and marking the fastest increase in four months.

The annual inflation rate in Thailand eased to 1.95% in July 2026 from 2.42% in June and below market expectations of 2.55%. The reading remained within the Bank of Thailand’s 1%-3% target range, with Nantapong Chiralerspong, director-general of the Commerce Ministry, attributing the slowdown mainly to a sharp decline in domestic fuel prices in July, in line with lower global oil prices. Thailand had been particularly vulnerable to the shock due to its reliance on crude oil imports from the region, with higher energy costs earlier this year lifting inflation after a year-long period of deflation. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and fresh food prices, accelerated to 1.34% in July from 1.23% in June, reflecting higher input costs for personal-care products and prepared food. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.73%, following a 0.34% decline in June. The Commerce Ministry expects headline inflation to rise in August and sees it averaging 2.09% in Q3.

Consumer prices in Thailand rose 2.42% year-on-year in June 2026, marking the third consecutive month of inflation after emerging from a year-long deflationary streak, although at the slowest pace of the sequence. The reading also remained within the central bank's 1%-3% target range, as easing tensions in the Middle East and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed global crude oil prices lower, causing energy prices to continue falling. Still, the ministry reaffirmed its full-year inflation forecast of 1.5%-2.5%, while Deputy Trade Policy and Strategy Office head Natiya Suchinda said headline inflation is expected to continue edging higher, averaging 2.79% in the third quarter and 3.02% in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, accelerated to 1.23% year-on-year from 0.92% in May, marking the fastest increase since June 2023.