Thailand Economy Expands 0.7% QoQ in Q1

Thailand’s economy grew 0.7% qoq in Q1 2026, slowing sharply from 1.9% in Q4 as the Middle East war weighed on overall economic activity. Still, the latest reading topped market expectations for a modest 0.1% gain, marking the second consecutive quarter of expansion. Private consumption lost momentum (0.4% vs 1.5% in Q4), reflecting weaker purchasing power and softer household spending. Government expenditure also eased (1.0% vs 4.9%), mainly due to slower social transfers and lower employee compensation. Meanwhile, fixed investment weakened further (1.9% vs 3.9%), pressured by a contraction in construction activity. On the trade front, exports (7.3% vs 2.4%) rose less than imports (8.7% vs 4.8%), contributing negatively to the GDP. Production-wise, non-agricultural activity slowed notably (0.5% vs 1.9%) amid softer industrial and services output, while agricultural production accelerated to 2.0% from 0.4%, extending growth for a second straight quarter.

Thailand’s economy grew 1.9% qoq in Q4 2025, swinging from a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in Q3 and easily exceeding market forecasts of a 0.3% expansion. It was the fastest quarterly growth since Q4 2021, following a recent election. Private consumption picked up sharply (1.5% vs 0.6% in Q3) while government spending posted a strong rebound (5.0% vs -2.7%) amid a recovery in social transfers and compensation of employees. Net trade contributed positively, even as exports (1.6% vs 0.7%) grew less than imports (4.6% vs 0.9%). Meanwhile, fixed investment continued to grow despite slowing (4.0% vs 5.9%).

Thailand’s economy shrank 0.6% qoq in Q3 2025, missing market consensus of a 0.3% fall and reversing a downwardly revised 0.5% growth in Q2. It marked the first quarterly drop in near three years and the steepest pace since Q3 2021, due to internal and external headwinds, as well as the transition to new leadership under PM Anutin Charnvirakul, with government support measures having limited impact. Private consumption grew the least in seven quarters (0.5% vs 0.6% in Q2), as high household debt persisted. Government spending fell (-2.4% vs 0.1%), weighed by a plunge in social transfers. However, fixed investment rose for the first time in four quarters (5.4% vs -1.1%). Net trade added positively, with exports continuing to rise (0.4% vs 1.2%) while imports shrank (-0.5% vs 5.1%). By sector, agriculture shrank for the first time since Q2 2024 (-3.1% vs 0.2%). Non-agriculture output also shrank (-0.3% vs 0.5%), rattled by weaker industrial activity, though services growth accelerated.