Thailand Economy Expands 1.9% QoQ in Q4, The Most in 4 years

Thailand’s economy grew 1.9% qoq in Q4 2025, swinging from a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in Q3 and easily exceeding market forecasts of a 0.3% expansion. It was the fastest quarterly growth since Q4 2021, following a recent election. Private consumption picked up sharply (1.5% vs 0.6% in Q3) while government spending posted a strong rebound (5.0% vs -2.7%) amid a recovery in social transfers and compensation of employees. Net trade contributed positively, even as exports (1.6% vs 0.7%) grew less than imports (4.6% vs 0.9%). Meanwhile, fixed investment continued to grow despite slowing growth (4.0% vs 5.9%).

Thailand’s economy shrank 0.6% qoq in Q3 2025, missing market consensus of a 0.3% fall and reversing a downwardly revised 0.5% growth in Q2. It marked the first quarterly drop in near three years and the steepest pace since Q3 2021, due to internal and external headwinds, as well as the transition to new leadership under PM Anutin Charnvirakul, with government support measures having limited impact. Private consumption grew the least in seven quarters (0.5% vs 0.6% in Q2), as high household debt persisted. Government spending fell (-2.4% vs 0.1%), weighed by a plunge in social transfers. However, fixed investment rose for the first time in four quarters (5.4% vs -1.1%). Net trade added positively, with exports continuing to rise (0.4% vs 1.2%) while imports shrank (-0.5% vs 5.1%). By sector, agriculture shrank for the first time since Q2 2024 (-3.1% vs 0.2%). Non-agriculture output also shrank (-0.3% vs 0.5%), rattled by weaker industrial activity, though services growth accelerated.

Thailand’s economy grew by 0.6% qoq in Q2 2025, exceeding market forecasts of 0.3% and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of expansion, though slightly below Q1's reading of 0.7%. The latest result reflected weaker private consumption (0.2% vs 0.6% in Q1) amid high household debt. Meanwhile, government spending rose for the first time in three quarters (0.4% vs -1.3%), supported by a rebound in social transfers. Net trade also contributed positively, with exports increasing at a slightly faster pace (2.1% vs 1.9%) as firms accelerated shipments ahead of higher U.S. tariffs, while imports rebounded strongly (5.4% vs -1.8%). At the same time, fixed investment continued to shrink but at a softer rate (-1.9% vs -2.3%). By sector, the agriculture sector lost momentum (0.5% vs 3.4%), posting its slowest increase in three quarters. Meanwhile, non-agriculture activity quickened (0.6% vs 0.3%), mainly led by a recovery in industry (1.5% vs 0.2%), as services growth slowed (0.2% vs 0.4%).