Thai Exports Seen Stagnant or Down 1% This Year

Thailand’s exports are expected to be flat or fall by about 1% this year, Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun said on Monday, as Reuters reported. Last Friday, the Ministry of Commerce’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office forecast a potential slowdown in exports, with growth expected to range between -3.1% and +1.1% this year, due to US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and a stronger Thai baht. Latest data showed that total exports rose 12.9% last year to USD 339.64 billion. Thailand’s total trade with the US reached USD 93.65 billion, with exports of USD 72.51 billion and imports of USD 21.15 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 51.36 billion. However, the US remained a key export market, with outbound shipments surging 54.3% in December. Meanwhile, China has remained a major source of imports, particularly capital goods and raw materials, and Thailand’s trade balance with China continues to show a deficit.

Thailand’s exports surged 16.8% yoy to a three-month high of USD 28.93 billion in December 2025, accelerating sharply from a 7.1% rise in the previous month and marking the 18th consecutive month of expansion. This was also the fastest increase in outbound shipments since September, supported by firmer year-end foreign demand and a surge in shipments of industrial products. Industrial product exports jumped 20.3%, driven mainly by robust sales of computers, equipment, and parts (51.5%), machinery and parts (22.8%), and telephones and related equipment (102.6%). However, shipments declined for radio, television, and related components (-13.0%). Agricultural exports remained under pressure due to natural disasters, falling 0.6%. Exports increased to the US (54.3%), Japan (8.6%), China (4.4%), the EU (17.2%), and ASEAN countries (13.1%). For the whole of 2025, exports rose 12.9% to USD 339.64 billion. For 2026, exports are forecast to either fall by up to 3.1% or rise by as much as 1.1%.

Thailand's exports rose 7.1% yoy to USD 27.45 billion in November 2025, quickening from a 5.7% growth in the previous month and marking the 17th straight month of expansion. The latest result came amid firmer foreign demand heading into year-end and improved shipments of some key products. Sales grew for computers, equipment, and parts (59.9%), gems & jewelry (15.1%), and telephones, equipment (68.0%), but fell for cars (-8.0%), rubber products (-12.1%), chemicals (-13.6%), and plastics (-11.4%). Agricultural exports remained under pressure due to natural disasters and mounting global competition. Exports rose to the U.S. (37.9%), the EU (-12.0%), and the ASEAN countries (5.7%), but declined to China (-7.8%) and Japan (-8.9%). In the first 11 months of the year, exports increased 12.6% to USD 310.71 billion. During January–November, shipments increased 12.6% from the same period a year earlier. The Commerce Ministry projects full-year export growth of between 11.6% and 12.1% for 2025.