Thai Exports Seen Stagnant or Down 1% This Year

Thailand's exports jumped 24.4% yoy to a record high of USD 31.57 billion in January 2026, quickening from 16.8% in the prior month and pointing to the 19th straight month of increase. The latest figure also signaled the fastest pace since December 2022, boosted by robust global demand at the start of the year. Sales of industrial products climbed 29.8%, boosted by computers, equipment (68.2%), automobiles (9.8%), telephones and components (195.4%), circuit boards (10.9%), electrical transformers and parts (32.2%), and switchboards and control panels (43.6%). In contrast, exports fell for rubber (-5.6%), plastics (-7.5%), and radio, TV (-9.3%). Agricultural shipment edged down 1.8%, reversing gains in December. Exports grew to the US (43.1%), Japan (2.7%), China (35.1%), the EU (17.8%), and ASEAN countries (19.8%). Bangkok has signaled its commitment to closely monitor exchange rate volatility and trade dynamics amid external risks. In 2025, exports rose 12.9% to USD 339.64 billion.

Thailand’s exports are expected to be flat or fall by about 1% this year, Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun said on Monday, as Reuters reported. Last Friday, the Ministry of Commerce’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office forecast a potential slowdown in exports, with growth expected to range between -3.1% and +1.1% this year, due to US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and a stronger Thai baht. Latest data showed that total exports rose 12.9% last year to USD 339.64 billion. Thailand’s total trade with the US reached USD 93.65 billion, with exports of USD 72.51 billion and imports of USD 21.15 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 51.36 billion. However, the US remained a key export market, with outbound shipments surging 54.3% in December. Meanwhile, China has remained a major source of imports, particularly capital goods and raw materials, and Thailand’s trade balance with China continues to show a deficit.

Thailand’s exports surged 16.8% yoy to a three-month high of USD 28.93 billion in December 2025, accelerating sharply from a 7.1% rise in the previous month and marking the 18th consecutive month of expansion. This was also the fastest increase in outbound shipments since September, supported by firmer year-end foreign demand and a surge in shipments of industrial products. Industrial product exports jumped 20.3%, driven mainly by robust sales of computers, equipment, and parts (51.5%), machinery and parts (22.8%), and telephones and related equipment (102.6%). However, shipments declined for radio, television, and related components (-13.0%). Agricultural exports remained under pressure due to natural disasters, falling 0.6%. Exports increased to the US (54.3%), Japan (8.6%), China (4.4%), the EU (17.2%), and ASEAN countries (13.1%). For the whole of 2025, exports rose 12.9% to USD 339.64 billion. For 2026, exports are forecast to either fall by up to 3.1% or rise by as much as 1.1%.