Thailand Export Growth Below Expectations

Thailand's exports rose 9.9% yoy to USD 29.44 billion in February 2026, slowing markedly from a 24.4% jump in January and falling short of market estimates of 15.1%. The latest reading was the weakest sales growth since November, on softer foreign demand as Middle East tensions continued to weigh on trade. Sales of industrial products increased 13.3%, marking the 23rd month of rise, boosted by computers, equipment (49.8%), automobiles (6.3%), telephones and components (217.7%), machinery and parts (28.4%), electrical transformers (47.1%), and transmission apparatus (251.5%). In contrast, agricultural shipments fell further (-5.7%), dragged by rubber (-26.2%), wheat products (-13.5%), tapioca products (-19.1%), and sugar (-53.0%). Exports grew to the US (40.5%), Japan (9.7%), China (0.4%), the EU (20.6%), and ASEAN (17.8%). Bangkok has said it is closely monitoring the impacts of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz to mitigate consequences. In January-February, exports rose 23.7%.

Thailand's exports jumped 24.4% yoy to a record high of USD 31.57 billion in January 2026, quickening from 16.8% in the prior month and pointing to the 19th straight month of increase. The latest figure also signaled the fastest pace since December 2022, boosted by robust global demand at the start of the year. Sales of industrial products climbed 29.8%, boosted by computers, equipment (68.2%), automobiles (9.8%), telephones and components (195.4%), circuit boards (10.9%), electrical transformers and parts (32.2%), and switchboards and control panels (43.6%). In contrast, exports fell for rubber (-5.6%), plastics (-7.5%), and radio, TV (-9.3%). Agricultural shipment edged down 1.8%, reversing gains in December. Exports grew to the US (43.1%), Japan (2.7%), China (35.1%), the EU (17.8%), and ASEAN countries (19.8%). Bangkok has signaled its commitment to closely monitor exchange rate volatility and trade dynamics amid external risks. In 2025, exports rose 12.9% to USD 339.64 billion.

Thailand’s exports are expected to be flat or fall by about 1% this year, Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun said on Monday, as Reuters reported. Last Friday, the Ministry of Commerce’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office forecast a potential slowdown in exports, with growth expected to range between -3.1% and +1.1% this year, due to US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and a stronger Thai baht. Latest data showed that total exports rose 12.9% last year to USD 339.64 billion. Thailand’s total trade with the US reached USD 93.65 billion, with exports of USD 72.51 billion and imports of USD 21.15 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 51.36 billion. However, the US remained a key export market, with outbound shipments surging 54.3% in December. Meanwhile, China has remained a major source of imports, particularly capital goods and raw materials, and Thailand’s trade balance with China continues to show a deficit.