Singapore Flags Recession Risk This Year

Singapore’s economy expanded 5% in 2025, easing from 5.3% growth in 2024 but exceeding the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s advance estimate of 4.8%. The MTI also upgraded its 2026 growth forecast to 2%-4% from 1%-3%, citing greater resilience in the global economy. The trade ministry said a sustained artificial intelligence boom, expansionary fiscal policies in major economies and accommodative global financial conditions are expected to underpin global growth this year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP rose 6.9% year-on-year, accelerating from 4.6% in the previous quarter and topping the advance estimate of 5.7%. That marked the strongest pace of expansion since Q4 2021. Full-year growth in 2025 was driven primarily by manufacturing, wholesale trade and finance and insurance, with robust AI-related electronics demand providing a key lift to activity.

Singapore’s economy expanded 5.7% year-on-year in Q4 2025, up from an upwardly revised 4.3% in Q3, marking the strongest growth since the third quarter of 2024, preliminary data showed. The acceleration in growth was mainly supported by the manufacturing sector, which surged 15% year-on-year, accelerating sharply from 4.9% in Q3, driven by output expansions in the biomedical manufacturing and electronics clusters. Meanwhile, construction sector growth eased to 4.2% from 5.1%. Among the services sectors, wholesale and retail trade and transportation and storage advanced 3.9%, following a 3.7% expansion in Q3. On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 1.9%, after a 2.4% expansion in the previous quarter. For the full year, GDP advanced 4.8%, accelerating from 4.4% growth in 2024. The latest data release did not include any forecasts for 2026. The ministry had previously forecast 2026 GDP growth at 1.0% to 3.0%.

Singapore’s economy expanded 4.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, down from an upwardly revised 4.7% in Q2. The latest print was above the flash estimate of 2.9%, mainly supported by growth in the manufacturing, wholesale trade, and finance & insurance sectors. The manufacturing sector grew 5.0% (vs 5.1%), mainly supported by electronics, transport engineering, and biomedical manufacturing clusters. Meanwhile, growth in the construction sector (3.6% vs 6.2%) and wholesale trade (3.9% vs 6.9%) all moderated. By contrast, retail trade (2.5% vs 0.6%) and accommodation (4.9% vs 2.1%) both accelerated. The finance & insurance sectors advanced 4.6%, accelerating from 4.2% in Q2, driven mainly by the banking and other auxiliary activities segments. For the first three quarters of 2025, Singapore’s GDP growth averaged 4.3% yoy. Meanwhile, the trade ministry raised its 2025 growth forecast to around 4%, up from the earlier projection of 1.5%–2.5%, following better-than-expected Q3 figures.