Singapore Q1 GDP Growth Tops Estimates

Singapore’s economy expanded 6.0% yoy in Q1 2026, exceeding flash estimates of 4.6% and accelerating from a 5.0% rise in Q4. It marked the strongest annual growth since Q3 2024, supported by a pick-up in construction output amid strong activity across both public and private sectors. The services sector also grew faster (5.7% vs 4.8%), led by wholesale and retail trade, accommodation, and finance & insurance. Manufacturing activity stayed resilient despite slower momentum (7.9% vs 9.6% in Q4), mainly driven by gains in electronics and precision engineering. On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 1.0%, reversing the advance estimate of a 0.3% fall and marking a second straight quarterly rise. However, the pace slowed sharply from the 5.0% surge in Q4, due to the impact of the Middle East war. Singapore kept its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2.0% to 4.0%, citing downside risks from global and domestic developments and signaling that the outlook could be revised if conditions worsen.

Singapore’s economy grew 4.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, easing from 5.7% in the previous quarter, and below expectations of 5.4%, advance estimates showed. Growth remained resilient but showed signs of moderation, with risks emerging from the US-Israel-Iran conflict that began in late February. Manufacturing growth slowed sharply to 5.0% from 11.4% in Q4, marking the steepest deceleration among major industries. Services also showed softer momentum, with growth at 4.7% from 4.8%, as wholesale & retail trade and transportation & storage edged down to 6.7% (vs 6.8%), and accommodation & food services, real estate and other services eased to 2.3% (vs 2.9%). In contrast, construction was the only sector to accelerate, rising 9.0% from 4.6%. On a quarterly basis, GDP shrank 0.3%, marking the first contraction since Q4 2022, but a smaller decline than the expected 0.5%.

Singapore’s economy expanded 5% in 2025, easing from 5.3% growth in 2024 but exceeding the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s advance estimate of 4.8%. The MTI also upgraded its 2026 growth forecast to 2%-4% from 1%-3%, citing greater resilience in the global economy. The trade ministry said a sustained artificial intelligence boom, expansionary fiscal policies in major economies and accommodative global financial conditions are expected to underpin global growth this year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP rose 6.9% year-on-year, accelerating from 4.6% in the previous quarter and topping the advance estimate of 5.7%. That marked the strongest pace of expansion since Q4 2021. Full-year growth in 2025 was driven primarily by manufacturing, wholesale trade and finance and insurance, with robust AI-related electronics demand providing a key lift to activity.