Saudi Non-Oil Private Sector Returns to Growth

Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia's PMI rose to 53.3 in June 2026 from 52.8 in May, marking the third consecutive month of expansion in the non-oil private sector. It also recorded the strongest growth since February, supported by a sharp rise in output, while new business grew at the fastest pace in four months, driven by domestic demand. However, foreign sales contracted steeply for the fourth consecutive month, amid supply chain disruptions and intensified foreign competition. Meanwhile, employment was broadly unchanged, while purchasing activity and inventory accumulation increased modestly. Backlogs of work declined for the first time in a year. On prices, input cost inflation accelerated steeply, boosted by higher fuel costs, freight charges, and supplier price increases linked to the Middle East conflict. Selling prices increased at the second-fastest pace in nearly six years, amid higher purchasing and staffing costs. Looking ahead, business sentiment improved to a five-month high.

Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia's PMI rose to 52.8 in May 2026 from 51.5 in April, signaling a stronger improvement in non-oil private sector conditions. Output expanded at the fastest pace in three months, supported by stronger domestic demand, resumed projects, and normalized operations following earlier disruptions. However, new order growth remained modest, while export orders contracted sharply for a third consecutive month amid shipping disruptions, higher freight and fuel costs, and geopolitical tensions. Supply chain conditions improved, with delivery times shortening for the first time since February, while purchasing activity returned to growth. Employment also expanded modestly as firms worked through rising backlogs. Meanwhile, cost pressures remained elevated despite easing from April’s record high, prompting another sharp increase in selling prices. Business confidence remained subdued amid ongoing regional uncertainty.

Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia’s PMI rose to 51.5 in April 2026 from March's sharp contraction at 48.8, signaling a modest recovery in the non-oil private sector after disruptions due to the Middle East war. The rebound was driven by improved domestic demand and a pickup in new business, but growth remained subdued as Middle East conflict-related uncertainty continued to delay spending and investment decisions. Export orders fell at the fastest pace on record, and output expanded but at a historically muted pace, while purchasing activity declined for a second month amid cautious input buying. Inventories increased as firms sought to buffer against supply disruptions, with delivery times lengthening due to shipping delays. Cost pressures intensified sharply, with input prices rising at the fastest rate in the survey’s history, pushing selling prices near record highs. Still, business sentiment improved, supported by strong domestic fundamentals and ongoing government-led development.