Nigeria Inflation Softens for 2nd Month

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose slightly to 15.38% in March 2026 from 15.06% in February, ending an 11-month disinflation trend. Food inflation, the largest component of the inflation basket, accelerated for a second month to 14.31% from 12.12%, while transport prices rose even more sharply, up 16.9% from 14.7% in February. The Middle East crisis has triggered a sharp increase in domestic fuel costs. Prices also increased significantly for miscellaneous goods & services (24.5% vs 21.2%), but slowed for some categories, notably housing & utilities (10.2% sv 18.8%), alcoholic beverages & tobacco (4.5% vs 9.4%) and clothing & footwear (8.5% vs 16.1%). The core inflation rate, which strips out the volatile prices of agricultural produce and energy, quickened to 16.21% in March from 15.88% in February. On a monthly basis, prices climbed by 4.2%, marking the steepest increase since January 2025, largely driven by transportation costs (4% vs -0.3%).

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased slightly to 15.06% in February 2026 from 15.10% in the previous month, marking the lowest level since November 2020 and the 11th consecutive month of declining inflation. However, the pace of disinflation has slowed in the past two months, following a small interest rate cut by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which signaled expectations that inflation will continue to moderate. Despite the overall slowdown, food inflation, traditionally the main driver of headline prices in the country, rose to 12.12% in February from 8.89% in January. The National Bureau of Statistics recently introduced a revised methodology for calculating inflation, shifting to a 12-month reference period instead of relying on a single-month comparison.

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased slightly to 15.10% in January 2026 from 15.15% in the prior month, marking the tenth consecutive monthly decline. This marks the lowest level since November 2020, partly due to a stronger currency reducing the cost of imports. Food inflation, the largest component of the inflation basket, continued to fall for the sixth month, reaching 8.89%, mainly on account of staples like cooking oil, grains and vegetables amid ample supply. Prices also slowed for other CPI items such as recreation & culture (1.52% vs 12.12%); clothing & footwear (10.91% vs 13.16%) and alcoholic beverages & tobacco (13.62% vs 14.98%), but climbed for education (22.48% vs 16.36%). The core inflation rate, which strips out the volatile prices of agricultural produce and energy, remained elevated but moderated for the seventh month to 17.72% in January 2026, the lowest since October 2022. On a monthly basis, the CPI fell by 2.88% in January, after a 0.54% rise in the prior month.