Tuesday October 16 2018
Nigeria Inflation Rate at 4-Month High of 11.28%
National Bureau of Statistics | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Nigeria's annual inflation rate rose further to 11.28 percent in September of 2018 from 11.23 percent in August. It was the highest inflation rate since May, amid a generalized increase in prices. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.84 percent, easing from a 1.05 percent gain in the prior month.

Year-on-year, prices increased further for food (13.31 percent compared to 13.16 percent in August); housing & utilities (7.27 percent compared to 7.25 percent); education (9.92 percent compared to 9.83 percent); health (9.65 percent compared to 9.64 percent); restaurants & hotels (9.39 percent compared to 9.38 percent) and communication (6.79 percent compared to 6.32 percent). 

Meanwhile, cost slowed for clothing & footwear (10.03 percent compared to 10.20 percent); transport (10.50 percent compared to 10.65 percent); furnishings & household equipment maintenance (9.79 percent compared to 10.07 percent) and miscellaneous goods & services (9.85 percent compared to 10.03 percent). Additionally, inflation was steady for recreation & culture (8.32 percent). 

Annual core inflation which excludes price of volatile agricultural products declined to 9.84 percent in September from 10.02 percent in the prior month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.8 percent, slowing from a 1.0 percent gain in August.




Tuesday September 25 2018
Nigeria Holds Interest Rate at 14%
Mario | mario@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 14 percent on September 25th 2018, as widely expected. The last time policymakers changed rates was in July 2016, when they lifted the monetary rate by 200 bps. The Committee noted inflationary pressures rebuilding, as the annual inflation rate increased for the first time since January last year to 11.23 percent in August from 11.14 percent in July, mainly due to higher cost of food.

Excerpts from the Statement by the Central Bank of Nigeria:

The Committee noted the uneven expansion in global output amidst growing trade tension, rising oil prices and debt levels as well as currency depreciation in most of the notable emerging markets and developing economies. These developments notwithstanding, there was evidence of resilient financial markets and output growth in the advanced economies led by the United States, which experienced sharp improvements in output growth. In the Euro area, United Kingdom and Japan, the pace of growth was moderate but steady, while in the Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs), growth was sluggish and relatively uneven.

The MPC observed that despite the under-performance of key monetary aggregates, headline inflation (year-on-year) inched up to 11.23 per cent in August 2018, from 11.14 per cent in July 2018. The rise in headline inflation was from food, while core inflation declined, indicating that supply side factors were driving the price increase. The near-term upside risks to inflation remained the dissipation of the base effect, expected 2019 election-related spending, continued herdsmen attack on farmers and the current episodes of flooding which has destroyed crops and would affect food supply and prices.

Available data and forecast of key macroeconomic indicators show a positive outlook for the economy in the third quarter of 2018. The Committee expects that sustained implementation of the 2018 budget, improvements in the security situation and sustained stability in the foreign exchange market will stabilize prices and strengthen economic growth. The Committee, however, identified the downside risks to the outlook to include: the impact of increased monetary policy normalization in the advanced economies and the strengthening US dollar.

In light of the above, the MPC decided by a vote of seven (7) members to retain the MPR at 14 per cent. However, three (3) out of these seven (7) members voted to raise the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) by 150 basis points, an indication that left to them, we should have tightened. The other three (3) members voted to tighten by raising the MPR by 25 basis points. In summary, the MPC voted to: I. Retain the MPR at 14 per cent; II. Retain the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR; III. Retain the CRR at 22.5 per cent; and IV. Retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30 percent.





Friday September 14 2018
Nigeria Annual Inflation Rate Rises to 11.2% in August
National Bureau of Statistics | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate increased to 11.23 percent in August of 2018 from 11.14 percent in July and above market expectations of 11.11 percent. It was the first rise in inflation rate after being declining since January 2017, when it reached a 12 year high of 18.7 percent.

Year-on-year, prices advanced faster for food & non-alcoholical beverages (13.16 percent compared to 12.82 percent in July); recreation & culture (8.32 percent compared to 8.28 percent) and communication (6.32 percent compared to 5.87 percent). 

On the other hand, cost eased for housing & utilities (7.25 percent compared to 7.27 percent); clothing & footwear (10.20 percent compared to 10.57 percent); transport (10.65 percent compared to 10.92 percent); furnishings & household equipment maintenance (10.07 percent compared to 10.66 percent); education (9.83 percent compared to 9.89 percent); health (9.64 percent compared to 9.94 percent); miscellaneous goods & services (10.03 percent compared to 10.29 percent) and restaurants & hotels (9.38 percent compared to 9.63 percent). 

Annual core inflation which excludes price of volatile agricultural products went up to 11.23 percent in August from 10.18 percent in the prior month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 1.0 percent, slowing from a 1.1 percent gain in July.


Monday August 27 2018
Nigeria Annual GDP Growth Eases to 1.5% in Q2
National Bureau of Statistics | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The economy of Nigeria grew 1.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018, slowing from a 1.9 percent expansion in the prior period. It was the weakest growth rate since the third quarter of last year, as oil output shrank while non-oil sector continued to rise. On a quarterly basis, the economy advanced 2.9 percent, after contracting 13.4 percent in the previous quarter.

The oil sector shrank 4.0 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018, following a 14.8 percent expansion in the prior period. The country produced 1.84 million barrels of crude oil per day, down from 1.87 mbpd in the same period a year ago. As a result, the oil sector accounted for 8.6 percent of the GDP compared to 9.0 percent a year earlier.

The non-oil sector increased 2.0 percent, after expanding 0.8 percent in the previous period.

Output advanced further for information and telecommunication (11.8 percent compared to 1.6 percent in Q1); transportation and storage (21.8 percent compared to 14.5 percent); food and accomodation services (2.4 percent compared to 0.3 percent); electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (7.6 percent compared to 4.9 percent); arts, entertainment and recreation (3.5 percent compared to 0.3 percent) and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation (12.0 percent compared to 11.6 percent). Also, production rebounded for construction (7.7 percent compared to -1.5 percent) and social services (0.4 percent compared to -0.4 percent). In addition, output declined less for real estate activities (-3.9 percent compared to -9.4 percent) and internal trade (-2.1 percent compared to -2.6 percent). Meanwhile, output growth slowed for agriculture (1.2 percent compared to 3.0 percent); manufacturing (0.7 percent compared to 3.4 percent) and financial and insurance (1.3 percent compared to 13.3 percent). Additionally, production fell for mining and quarrrying (-3.8 percent compared to 14.9 percent) and education (-0.7 percent compared to 0.5 percent) and dropped faster for public administration (-5.2 percent compared to -1.7 percent).

On a quarterly basis, the economy advanced 2.9 percent, after contracting 13.4 percent in the previous quarter.




Wednesday August 15 2018
Nigeria Inflation Rate Falls to New 2-1/2-Year Low
National Bureau of Statistics | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Nigeria's annual inflation rate eased further to 11.14 percent in July 2018 from 11.23 percent in the previous month, and matched market expectations of 11.1 percent. It was the lowest inflation rate since January 2016.

Food inflation slowed to 12.85 percent in July, also the lowest since March 2016, from 12.98 percent in the previous month.

Also, prices increased at a softer pace for: clothing & footwear (10.57 percent vs 11.02 percent); furnishings & household equipment maintenance (10.66 percent vs 11.22 percent); health (9.94 percent vs 10.45 percent); restaurants & hotels (9.63 percent vs 10.19 percent); and miscellaneous goods & services (10.29 percent vs 10.30 percent). Meanwhile, inflation picked up for housing & utilities (7.27 percent vs 7.05 percent); transport (10.92 percent vs 10.88 percent); education (9.89 percent vs 9.73 percent); recreation & culture (8.28 percent vs 8.05 percent); communication (5.87 percent vs 5.43 percent).

Annual core inflation which excludes price of volatile agricultural products fell to 10.18 percent in July from 10.39 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.1 percent in July, following a 1.2 percent gain in June.


Monday July 23 2018
Nigeria Inflation Rate at 29-Month Low of 11.23%
National Bureau of Statistics | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com

Inflation rate in Nigeria eased further to 11.23 percent in June of 2018 from 11.61 percent in the previous month. It compares with market expectations of 11.05 percent. Still, it was the lowest inflation rate since January of 2016.

The inflation rate has been declining since reaching more than 12 year high of 18.7 percent in January of 2017.

Year-on-year, cost slowed for food & non-alcoholic beverages (12.95 percent from 13.44 percent in May); clothing & footwear (11.02 percent from 11.78 percent); transport (10.88 percent from 11.25 percent); furniture & household equipment (11.22 percent from 11.91 percent); education (9.73 percent from 9.94 percent); health (10.45 percent from 10.81 percent); miscellaneous goods & services (10.30 percent from 10.57 percent) and restaurant & hotels (10.19 percent from 10.50 percent). On the other hand, cost advanced faster for housing & utilities (7.05 percent from 7.04 percent); recreation & culture (8.05 percent from 7.86 percent) and communication (5.43 percent from 5.07 percent). 

Annual core inflation which excludes price of volatile agricultural products fell to 10.39 percent from 10.71 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.2 percent, following a 1.1 percent rise in May.


Wednesday June 13 2018
Nigeria Inflation Rate Slows Less Than Expected
National Bureau of Statistics | Gabriela Costa | gabriela.costa@tradingeconomics.com

Nigeria’s inflation rate decreased to 11.6 percent in May of 2018 from 12.5 percent in the prior month and slightly above market expectations of 11.4 percent. It was the lowest inflation rate since February of 2016, as prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages, housing & utilities, clothing & footwear and transport grew at a slower pace.

The inflation rate has been declining since reaching more than 12 year high of 18.7 percent in January of 2017.

Year-on-year, cost eased for food & non-alcoholic beverages (13.4 percent compared to 14.8 percent in April); housing & utilities (7 percent compared to 7.2 percent); clothing & footwear (11.8 percent compared to 12.7 percent); transport (11.2 percent compared to 11.6 percent); furnishings & household equipment (11.2 percent compared to 12.4 percent); education (9.9 percent compared to 10.1 percent); health (10.8 percent compared to 11 percent); miscellaneous goods & services (10.6 percent compared to 10.9 percent); restaurants & hotels (10.5 percent compared to 10.8 percent); alcoholic beverages, tobacco & kola (8.5 percent compared to 8.7 percent) and recreation & culture (7.9 percent compared to 8.4 percent). Meanwhile, cost went up faster for communication (5.1 percent compared to 4.9 percent).

Annual core inflation which excludes price of volatile agricultural products fell to 10.7 percent from 10.9 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.1 percent, after rising 0.8 percent in April.


Tuesday May 22 2018
Nigeria Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged at 14%
Mario | mario@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Nigeria left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 14 percent on May 22nd 2018, as widely expected. The last time policymakers changed rates was in July 2016, when they lifted the monetary rate by 200 bps. The Committee said the decision is consistent with achieving the single-digit inflation target rate. The annual inflation rate fell to 12.48 percent in April from 13.34 percent in March, mainly due to lower prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Excerpts from the Statement by the Central Bank of Nigeria:

The Committee noted improvements in the domestic economy, attributable to the steady decline in inflation, rebound in oil prices and increase in production level, as well as the continued stability in the foreign exchange market. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2017 was revised upwards from 1.92 per cent to 2.11 per cent, while a growth of 1.95 per cent was recorded in the first quarter of 2018, up from a contraction of 0.91 per cent in the corresponding period of 2017. The development was due to growth in the oil and non-oil sectors by 14.77 and 0.76 per cent, respectively.

The Monetary Policy Committee also noted the sustained positive outlook based on the Manufacturing, and Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI), which rose for thirteenth and twelfth consecutive months to 56.9 and 57.5 index points, respectively, in April 2018. The Committee welcomed this development but believes that growth remains largely fragile and could benefit from further reforms and stimulus.

Inflationary pressures continued to moderate with headline inflation (year-on-year) declining for the fifteenth consecutive month to 12.48 per cent in April 2018 from 13.34 per cent in March 2018. Food and Core inflation also decelerated to 14.80 and 10.92 per cent from 16.08 and 11.18 per cent, respectively, during the same period.

The outlook for inflation indicates continued moderation in the price level, even though the risks include huge liquidity injections that is expected to arise from the implementation of the proposed N9.12 trillion 2018 FGN budget; expenditure towards the 2019 elections; monthly FAAC injections, approval and implementation of the proposed new national minimum wage, possibly finance by a supplementary budget. These could impact aggregate demand and put pressure on domestic prices in the remaining months of 2018 and may dampen the gains already made by the Bank in stabilizing prices.

Overall, the Committee was convinced that the economy needed a new impetus of increased lending by the banking system and would work with the Bank to adopt innovative ways to encourage the deposit money banks (DMBs) to adopt innovative ways to accelerate credit growth, including a reduction 12 in the policy rate when conditions for such a decision arise. The MPC noted that at single digit inflation and higher reserve levels, the risks associated with a policy rate reduction under conditions of wavering foreign capital inflows and an unstable oil market, including other severe uncertainties, could be better managed to deliver macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. In consideration of the foregoing, therefore, the Committee decided by a vote of 8 members to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 14.0 per cent alongside all other policy parameters. One (1) member, however, voted to increase the MPR by 50 basis points.


Monday May 21 2018
Nigeria GDP Growth Slows to 1.9% in Q1
National Bureau of Statistics | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The economy of Nigeria expanded 1.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018, easing from an upwardly revised 2.1 percent growth in the previous period. It is the fourth consecutive quarter of expansion, as the oil sector continued to rise while the non-oil output growth slowed.

The oil sector grew 14.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018, accelerating from a 11.2 percent expansion in the prior period. The country produced 2.0 million barrels of crude oil per day, up from 1.75 mbpd in the same period a year earlier. As a result, the oil sector accounted for 9.6 percent of the GDP compared to 8.5 percent a year ago.

The non-oil sector advanced 0.7 percent, after increasing 1.5 percent in the prior period.

Growth eased for: agriculture (3.0 percent compared to 4.2 percent in Q4 2017); transportation and storage (14.5 percent compared to 16.6 percent); food and accomodation services (0.3 percent compared to 0.8 percent); electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (4.9 percent compared to 16.0 percent) and arts, entertainment and recreation (0.3 percent compared to 3.5 percent). Additionally, output contracted for construction (-1.5 percent compared to 4.1 percent) and internal trade (-2.6 percent compared to 2.1 percent). Also, production dropped further for public administration (-1.7 percent compared to -0.5 percent) and real estate activities (-9.4 percent compared to -5.9 percent) and continued to fall for social services (-0.4 percent). On the other hand, output increased at a faster pace for financial and insurance (13.3 percent compared to 0.2 percent); manufacturing (3.4 percent compared to 0.1 percent); mining and quarrrying (14.9 percent compared to 10.7 percent) and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation (11.6 percent compared to 1.2 percent). In addition, production rebounded for information and telecommunication (1.6 percent compared to -1.5 percent) and education (0.5 percent compared to -1.0 percent).

On a quarterly basis, the economy shrank 13.4 percent, after expanding 4.7 percent in the previous quarter.


Tuesday May 15 2018
Nigeria Inflation Rate Edges Down to 12.5% in April
National Bureau of Statistics | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate decreased to 12.5 percent in April of 2018 from 13.3 percent in the prior month and in line with market expectations. It was the lowest inflation rate since February of 2016, as prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages and housing and utilities grew at a slower pace.

The inflation rate has been declining since reaching more than 12 year high of 18.7 percent in January of 2017.

Year-on-year, cost eased for food and non-alcoholic beverages (14.8 percent compared to 16.1 percent in March); housing and utilities (7.2 percent compared to 7.5 percent) and clothing and footwear (12.7 percent compared to 13.6 percent). In addition, prices slowed for transport (11.6 percent compared to 11.9 percent); furnishings and household equipment (12.4 percent compared to 12.9 percent); education (10.1 percent compared to 10.4 percent) and health (11.0 percent compared to 11.3 percent). Also, cost increased at a softer pace for miscellaneous goods and services (10.9 percent compared to 11.5 percent); restaurants and hotels (10.8 percent compared to 11.0 percent); alcoholic beverages, tobacco and kola (8.7 percent compared to 8.8 percent) and recreation and culture (8.4 percent compared to 9.1 percent). Meanwhile, cost went up faster for communication (4.9 percent compared to 4.5 percent). 

Annual core inflation which excludes price of volatile agricultural products fell to 10.9 percent from 11.2 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices remained unchanged, after rising 0.8 percent in January.