Friday December 14 2018
Nigeria Annual Inflation Rate Rises to 11.28% in November
National Bureau of Statistics | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Nigeria rose to 11.28 percent in November of 2018 from 11.26 percent in the previous month. Prices advanced faster mainly due to higher cost of food and housing and utilities.

Year-on-year, prices increased further food & non alcoholic beverages (13.26 percent compared to 13.24 percent in October), mainly driven by food (13.30 percent compared to 13.28 percent); housing & utilities (7.34 percent compared to 7.28 percent); health (9.74 percent compared to 9.70 percent); restaurants & hotels (9.45 percent compared to 9.42 percent); recreation & culture (8.56 percent compared to 8.38 percent) and communication (7.36 percent compared to 7.29 percent).

Meanwhile, cost slowed for clothing & footwear (9.97 percent compared to 9.98 percent); transport (10.29 percent compared to 10.37 percent); furnishings & household equipment maintenance (9.69 percent compared to 9.72 percent); education (9.78 percent compared to 9.85 percent) and miscellaneous goods & services (9.66 percent compared to 9.76 percent).

Annual core inflation which excludes price of volatile agricultural products fell to 9.79 percent in November from 9.88 percent in October.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.8 percent, after rising 0.7 percent in the prior month.




Monday December 10 2018
Nigeria GDP Grows 1.8% YoY in Q3
National Bureau of Statistics | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com

The economy of Nigeria grew 1.8 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, up from a 1.5 percent expansion in the prior period, as non-oil rose faster and oil sector shrank less. On a quarterly basis, the economy advanced 9.5 percent, higher than a 2.9 percent growth in the previous quarter.

The oil sector shrank 2.9 percent year-on-year in the three months to September of 2018, following a 4 percent contraction in the prior period. The country produced 1.94 million barrels of crude oil per day, lower than 2.02 mbpd in the same period a year ago. As a result, the oil sector accounted for 9.4 percent of GDP compared to 9.8 percent a year earlier.

The non-oil sector increased 2.3 percent, after expanding 1.5 percent in the second quarter.

Output advanced further for information and telecommunication (12.1 percent compared to 11.8 percent in Q2); food and accomodation services (2.7 percent compared to 2.4 percent); electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (18.3 percent compared to 7.6 percent); manufacturing (1.9 percent compared to 0.7 percent) and financial and insurance (4.8 percent compared to 1.3 percent). Also, production rebounded for internal trade (1 percent compared to -2.1 percent) while it increased at the same pace for agriculture (1.9 percent, the same as in Q2). On the other hand, output slowed for transportation and storage (12 percent from 21.8 percent); arts, entertainment and recreation (2.8 percent compared to 3.5 percent); water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation (2.3 percent compared to 12 percent); construction (0.5 percent compared to 7.7 percent). Meanwhile, output declined less for real estate activities (-2.7 percent compared to -3.9 percent); mining and quarrying (-2.8 percent compared to -3.8 percent); education (-0.4 percent compared to -0.7 percent) and public administration (-1 percent compared to -5.2 percent) and production fell for social services (-0.7 percent compared to 0.4 percent). 

On a quarterly basis, the economy advanced 9.5 percent, higher than a 2.9 percent growth in the previous quarter.




Thursday November 22 2018
Nigeria Keeps Interest Rate Steady at 14%
Central Bank of Nigeria | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Nigeria left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 14 percent on November 22nd 2018, as widely expected. The last time policymakers changed rates was in July 2016, when they lifted the monetary rate by 200 bps. Policymakers said that it is expected moderate inflationary pressure by the end of the year. The annual inflation rate fell to 11.26 percent in October from 10.28 percent in September, mostly due to lower cost of food.

Excerpts from the Statement by the Central Bank of Nigeria:

The Committee assessed the macroeconomic environment in 2018 and noted the modest stability thus far achieved in domestic prices, output growth and the financial system. The Committee noted that the economy was on the right path but some key sectors continued to experience significant challenges. The MPC, however, expressed concern about the tepid growth expectations and growing uncertainty in the global financial markets arising from the poor reception of the Brexit deal by British politicians, continuing trade war between the US and her major trading partners, as well as the commencement of US sanctions on Iran.

The MPC welcomed the moderation in inflation in October, reflecting declining food prices. The Committee believes that given the negative output gap, the proposed increase in the national minimum wage would stimulate output growth due to prolonged weak aggregate demand arising from salary arrears and contractor debt. Consequently, its impact on the aggregate price level would be largely muted, given that the monetary aggregates have largely underperformed in fiscal 2018. In addition, the prevailing stability in the foreign exchange market would continue to moderate pressures on the domestic price level.

Overall, the MPC considered the options to loosen, hold or tighten. The Committee continues to hold the view that although loosening would encourage the flow of credit to the real sector, help in reduction of the aggregate cost of credit and spur business spending and investment, thereby reinforcing the CBN’s support for output growth and economic recovery, it, however, believed that doing so will reverse more rapidly, the gains of price and exchange rate stability achieved so far given the liquidity impact that would entail. The ensuing liquidity will exert pressure on the exchange rate in the light of increased capital flow reversals arising from monetary policy normalisation by the US Fed. This would further depress the capital market. As for tightening, The MPC hold the view that, while tightening will strengthen the stability of the foreign exchange market because of its dampening effect on the demand for foreign exchange, it was however convinced that this could simultaneously dampen investment growth, widen the output gap, depress aggregate demand and weaken output growth.

The MPC recognises the fact that it had held the policy rate and other policy parameters constant over the last several meetings. The Committee underscores that by holding its policy position constant, it has confidence in the various policies and administrative measures deployed by the Bank which have resulted in the moderation in domestic price levels and stability in the foreign exchange rate. Thus, a hold position is an expression of confidence in the policy regime, given the gradual improvements in both output growth and price stability. On this premise, the downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation appears contained. 

In summary, the MPC voted to:
1. Retain the MPR at 14 per cent;
2. Retain the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR;
3. Retain the CRR at 22.5 per cent; and
4. Retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent. 




Wednesday November 21 2018
Nigeria Annual Inflation Rate Slows to 11.26% in October
National Bureau of Statistics | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Nigeria fell to 11.26 percent in October of 2018 from 11.28 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 11.33 percent. The slowdown in the inflation rate mainly reflected lower cost of food.

Year-on-year, prices eased food & non alcoholic beverages (13.24 percent compared to 13.27 percent in September), namely food (13.28 percent compared to 13.31 percent); clothing & footwear (9.98 percent compared to 10.03 percent); transport (10.37 percent compared to 10.50 percent); furnishings & household equipment maintenance (9.72 percent compared to 9.79 percent); education (9.85 percent compared to 9.92 percent) and miscellaneous goods & services (9.76 percent compared to 9.85 percent).

On the other hand, cost increased faster for housing & utilities (7.28 percent compared to 7.27 percent); health (9.70 percent compared to 9.65 percent); restaurants & hotels (9.42 percent to 9.39 percent); recreation & culture (8.38 percent compared to 8.32 percent) and communication (7.29 percent compared to 6.79 percent).

Annual core inflation which excludes price of volatile agricultural products rose to 9.88 percent in October from 9.84 percent in the prior month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.7 percent, slowing from a 0.8 percent gain in September.


Tuesday October 16 2018
Nigeria Inflation Rate at 4-Month High of 11.28%
National Bureau of Statistics | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Nigeria's annual inflation rate rose further to 11.28 percent in September of 2018 from 11.23 percent in August. It was the highest inflation rate since May, amid a generalized increase in prices. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.84 percent, easing from a 1.05 percent gain in the prior month.

Year-on-year, prices increased further for food (13.31 percent compared to 13.16 percent in August); housing & utilities (7.27 percent compared to 7.25 percent); education (9.92 percent compared to 9.83 percent); health (9.65 percent compared to 9.64 percent); restaurants & hotels (9.39 percent compared to 9.38 percent) and communication (6.79 percent compared to 6.32 percent). 

Meanwhile, cost slowed for clothing & footwear (10.03 percent compared to 10.20 percent); transport (10.50 percent compared to 10.65 percent); furnishings & household equipment maintenance (9.79 percent compared to 10.07 percent) and miscellaneous goods & services (9.85 percent compared to 10.03 percent). Additionally, inflation was steady for recreation & culture (8.32 percent). 

Annual core inflation which excludes price of volatile agricultural products declined to 9.84 percent in September from 10.02 percent in the prior month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.8 percent, slowing from a 1.0 percent gain in August.


Tuesday September 25 2018
Nigeria Holds Interest Rate at 14%
Mario | mario@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 14 percent on September 25th 2018, as widely expected. The last time policymakers changed rates was in July 2016, when they lifted the monetary rate by 200 bps. The Committee noted inflationary pressures rebuilding, as the annual inflation rate increased for the first time since January last year to 11.23 percent in August from 11.14 percent in July, mainly due to higher cost of food.

Excerpts from the Statement by the Central Bank of Nigeria:

The Committee noted the uneven expansion in global output amidst growing trade tension, rising oil prices and debt levels as well as currency depreciation in most of the notable emerging markets and developing economies. These developments notwithstanding, there was evidence of resilient financial markets and output growth in the advanced economies led by the United States, which experienced sharp improvements in output growth. In the Euro area, United Kingdom and Japan, the pace of growth was moderate but steady, while in the Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs), growth was sluggish and relatively uneven.

The MPC observed that despite the under-performance of key monetary aggregates, headline inflation (year-on-year) inched up to 11.23 per cent in August 2018, from 11.14 per cent in July 2018. The rise in headline inflation was from food, while core inflation declined, indicating that supply side factors were driving the price increase. The near-term upside risks to inflation remained the dissipation of the base effect, expected 2019 election-related spending, continued herdsmen attack on farmers and the current episodes of flooding which has destroyed crops and would affect food supply and prices.

Available data and forecast of key macroeconomic indicators show a positive outlook for the economy in the third quarter of 2018. The Committee expects that sustained implementation of the 2018 budget, improvements in the security situation and sustained stability in the foreign exchange market will stabilize prices and strengthen economic growth. The Committee, however, identified the downside risks to the outlook to include: the impact of increased monetary policy normalization in the advanced economies and the strengthening US dollar.

In light of the above, the MPC decided by a vote of seven (7) members to retain the MPR at 14 per cent. However, three (3) out of these seven (7) members voted to raise the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) by 150 basis points, an indication that left to them, we should have tightened. The other three (3) members voted to tighten by raising the MPR by 25 basis points. In summary, the MPC voted to: I. Retain the MPR at 14 per cent; II. Retain the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR; III. Retain the CRR at 22.5 per cent; and IV. Retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30 percent.



Friday September 14 2018
Nigeria Annual Inflation Rate Rises to 11.2% in August
National Bureau of Statistics | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate increased to 11.23 percent in August of 2018 from 11.14 percent in July and above market expectations of 11.11 percent. It was the first rise in inflation rate after being declining since January 2017, when it reached a 12 year high of 18.7 percent.

Year-on-year, prices advanced faster for food & non-alcoholical beverages (13.16 percent compared to 12.82 percent in July); recreation & culture (8.32 percent compared to 8.28 percent) and communication (6.32 percent compared to 5.87 percent). 

On the other hand, cost eased for housing & utilities (7.25 percent compared to 7.27 percent); clothing & footwear (10.20 percent compared to 10.57 percent); transport (10.65 percent compared to 10.92 percent); furnishings & household equipment maintenance (10.07 percent compared to 10.66 percent); education (9.83 percent compared to 9.89 percent); health (9.64 percent compared to 9.94 percent); miscellaneous goods & services (10.03 percent compared to 10.29 percent) and restaurants & hotels (9.38 percent compared to 9.63 percent). 

Annual core inflation which excludes price of volatile agricultural products went up to 11.23 percent in August from 10.18 percent in the prior month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 1.0 percent, slowing from a 1.1 percent gain in July.


Monday August 27 2018
Nigeria Annual GDP Growth Eases to 1.5% in Q2
National Bureau of Statistics | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The economy of Nigeria grew 1.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018, slowing from a 1.9 percent expansion in the prior period. It was the weakest growth rate since the third quarter of last year, as oil output shrank while non-oil sector continued to rise. On a quarterly basis, the economy advanced 2.9 percent, after contracting 13.4 percent in the previous quarter.

The oil sector shrank 4.0 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018, following a 14.8 percent expansion in the prior period. The country produced 1.84 million barrels of crude oil per day, down from 1.87 mbpd in the same period a year ago. As a result, the oil sector accounted for 8.6 percent of the GDP compared to 9.0 percent a year earlier.

The non-oil sector increased 2.0 percent, after expanding 0.8 percent in the previous period.

Output advanced further for information and telecommunication (11.8 percent compared to 1.6 percent in Q1); transportation and storage (21.8 percent compared to 14.5 percent); food and accomodation services (2.4 percent compared to 0.3 percent); electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (7.6 percent compared to 4.9 percent); arts, entertainment and recreation (3.5 percent compared to 0.3 percent) and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation (12.0 percent compared to 11.6 percent). Also, production rebounded for construction (7.7 percent compared to -1.5 percent) and social services (0.4 percent compared to -0.4 percent). In addition, output declined less for real estate activities (-3.9 percent compared to -9.4 percent) and internal trade (-2.1 percent compared to -2.6 percent). Meanwhile, output growth slowed for agriculture (1.2 percent compared to 3.0 percent); manufacturing (0.7 percent compared to 3.4 percent) and financial and insurance (1.3 percent compared to 13.3 percent). Additionally, production fell for mining and quarrrying (-3.8 percent compared to 14.9 percent) and education (-0.7 percent compared to 0.5 percent) and dropped faster for public administration (-5.2 percent compared to -1.7 percent).

On a quarterly basis, the economy advanced 2.9 percent, after contracting 13.4 percent in the previous quarter.


Wednesday August 15 2018
Nigeria Inflation Rate Falls to New 2-1/2-Year Low
National Bureau of Statistics | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Nigeria's annual inflation rate eased further to 11.14 percent in July 2018 from 11.23 percent in the previous month, and matched market expectations of 11.1 percent. It was the lowest inflation rate since January 2016.

Food inflation slowed to 12.85 percent in July, also the lowest since March 2016, from 12.98 percent in the previous month.

Also, prices increased at a softer pace for: clothing & footwear (10.57 percent vs 11.02 percent); furnishings & household equipment maintenance (10.66 percent vs 11.22 percent); health (9.94 percent vs 10.45 percent); restaurants & hotels (9.63 percent vs 10.19 percent); and miscellaneous goods & services (10.29 percent vs 10.30 percent). Meanwhile, inflation picked up for housing & utilities (7.27 percent vs 7.05 percent); transport (10.92 percent vs 10.88 percent); education (9.89 percent vs 9.73 percent); recreation & culture (8.28 percent vs 8.05 percent); communication (5.87 percent vs 5.43 percent).

Annual core inflation which excludes price of volatile agricultural products fell to 10.18 percent in July from 10.39 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.1 percent in July, following a 1.2 percent gain in June.


Monday July 23 2018
Nigeria Inflation Rate at 29-Month Low of 11.23%
National Bureau of Statistics | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com

Inflation rate in Nigeria eased further to 11.23 percent in June of 2018 from 11.61 percent in the previous month. It compares with market expectations of 11.05 percent. Still, it was the lowest inflation rate since January of 2016.

The inflation rate has been declining since reaching more than 12 year high of 18.7 percent in January of 2017.

Year-on-year, cost slowed for food & non-alcoholic beverages (12.95 percent from 13.44 percent in May); clothing & footwear (11.02 percent from 11.78 percent); transport (10.88 percent from 11.25 percent); furniture & household equipment (11.22 percent from 11.91 percent); education (9.73 percent from 9.94 percent); health (10.45 percent from 10.81 percent); miscellaneous goods & services (10.30 percent from 10.57 percent) and restaurant & hotels (10.19 percent from 10.50 percent). On the other hand, cost advanced faster for housing & utilities (7.05 percent from 7.04 percent); recreation & culture (8.05 percent from 7.86 percent) and communication (5.43 percent from 5.07 percent). 

Annual core inflation which excludes price of volatile agricultural products fell to 10.39 percent from 10.71 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.2 percent, following a 1.1 percent rise in May.