Moldova GDP Rebounds in Q2 After Three-Quarter Slump

Moldova’s economy expanded 5.2% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, the fastest pace since Q4 2021, up from 1.1% in Q2. The acceleration was driven by stronger gross fixed capital formation (+3.7%) and household consumption (+2.5%). On the external side, a 14% increase in total exports of goods and services contributed 3.9 percentage points to GDP growth, while a 5.5% rise in imports subtracted 3.1 percentage points. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew 1.5% in Q3, slightly moderating from 1.8% in the previous quarter. For the January–September period, GDP rose 2.0% year-on-year.

Moldova’s economy expanded 1.1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, snapping a three-quarter contraction and rebounding from a 1.2% decline in the previous quarter. The rebound was mainly supported by growth in gross fixed capital formation (+5.2%) and household consumption (+1.8%). On the external trade front, net exports of goods and services fell 9.1%, as exports declined (-5.5%) while imports surged (+12.9%). On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose 1.6% in Q2, accelerating from 1.4% in Q1 2025. For the first half of 2025, Moldova’s GDP contracted 0.3%, compared with a 0.2% decline in the same period last year.

Moldova’s economy contracted by 1.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline following a 1.3% drop in Q4 2024. Output fell in several key sectors, including manufacturing (-0.7%), professional, scientific and technical activities (-0.6%), agriculture, forestry and fishing (-0.2%), and other services (-0.2%). In contrast, gains were recorded in construction (+0.4%) and information and communications (+0.2%). On the demand side, net trade was the largest drag on growth, shrinking by 13.8% due to falling exports and rising imports. Meanwhile, household consumption (+5.2%) and gross fixed capital formation (+3.2%) offered strong support. Quarter-on-quarter, Moldova's economy grew by 1.1%, accelerating from a 0.3% expansion in Q4 2024.