Kazakhstan Economic Growth Slows in January–September

Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4.2% year-on-year in January–September 2026, slowing from 4.9% growth recorded over the first eight months of the year. The deceleration was primarily driven by an 8.3% decline in oil production over the period, reflecting the country’s heavy reliance on mineral and oil exports. Oil production began to recover in August, returning to previous levels following a July decline caused by disruptions to exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.

The economy of Kazakhstan expanded 4.9% year-on-year in the January-August 2026 period, the same as in the first seven months of the year. Growth moderated in industry (2.8% vs 3% in January-July), manufacturing (8.4% vs 9%) and transportation and storage (7.3% vs 7.4%) while output in mining and quarrying contracted further (-4.3% vs -4.4%). Meanwhile, production increased faster pace in agriculture (5.2% vs 5%), construction (15.6% vs 15.3%) and trade (6% vs 5.9%).

Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.9% year-on-year in January-July 2026, following a 5.1% growth in the first half of the year. Growth moderated in industry (3% vs 3.5% in January-June) and manufacturing (9% vs 9.8%), while output in mining and quarrying contracted further (-4.4% vs -4%). Meanwhile, production increased at a slightly faster pace in agriculture (5% vs 4.4%), construction (15.3% vs 15.2%), transportation and storage (7.4% vs 7.1%), and trade (5.9% vs 5.7%). Most regions recorded positive growth rates in the Short-Term Economic Indicator, with the strongest gains in Turkistan (24.1%), Ulytau (15.9%), Almaty (15%), and Shymkent (15%). Declines were recorded in West Kazakhstan (-6.5%), Atyrau (-5.9%), East Kazakhstan (-0.1%), and Akmola (-0.5%) regions.