Hungary Cuts Key Interest Rate as Inflation Falls

The National Bank of Hungary cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 6% at its June 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations, resuming its easing cycle as inflation continues to ease, helped by a stronger forint and softer import costs. The currency has gained more than 8% against the euro this year, significantly improving Hungary’s inflation outlook by reducing the price of imported goods. The annual inflation rate eased to 1.8% in May from a three-month high of 2.1% in the previous month, giving policymakers more room to cut rates further. The easing cycle contrasts with central banks elsewhere in Europe, where energy-driven inflation risks linked to geopolitical tensions have kept policy tighter.

The National Bank of Hungary held its base interest rate unchanged at 6.25% in its May 2026 meeting, as expected by markets, to maintain benchmark borrowing cots at their lowest in four years. The hold was also signaled by the central bank earlier, preluding expectations of looser monetary policy this year. NBH Governor Varga noted the outlook for inflation is favorable due to the recent strengthening of the forint after Peter Magyar was elected Prime Minister. The outlook contrasts sharply with that of other EU countries, which are likely to see higher rates as the war in the Middle East tightened energy supply and lifted their prices.

The National Bank of Hungary left its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.25% in its April 2026 meeting, as widely anticipated, marking the second consecutive hold. The decision reflects a cautious stance amid rising global risks, including geopolitical tensions related to the Iranian conflict, which have lifted energy prices and increased inflation pressures. Meanwhile, uncertainty over domestic fiscal policy keeps the central bank in a wait-and-see position, with authorities awaiting concrete government plans to address a sizeable budget deficit. This was despite domestic inflation remaining below the central bank’s 3% target and the forint appreciating following the April elections. The annual inflation quickened to 1.8% in March from 1.4% in the previous month, but remained close to its lowest level in nine years.