Hungary | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hungary including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hungary economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.00 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.25 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 162000.00 181430 165927 163530 159607 115722 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 74.10 73.1 72.9 72.9 72.9 69.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 267.01 264 262 259 256 227 [+]
Stock Market 38228.16 37600 37200 36800 36500 32300 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.20 2.76 2.78 2.81 2.84 3.14 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.90 3.4 3.3 3 2.9 2.4 percent [+]
GDP 124.34 134 126 123 120 145 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 6701873.00 6629885 5944684 6361074 6342331 6546760 HUF Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1573885.00 1376151 1368859 1365511 1362419 1334557 HUF Million [+]
GDP per capita 14840.39 15100 15380 15380 15380 15790 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 25381.29 25750 25801 25852 25902 25914 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 189014.00 192331 188454 185348 183175 178379 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Construction 266376.00 223082 222035 221481 220725 216149 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1282779.00 1319677 1314521 1311062 1305750 1275119 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 990945.00 983610 982685 981793 980903 973214 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Services 3711003.00 3646571 3652440 3655205 3656492 3633363 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Transport 301942.00 280306 279873 279109 278466 272716 HUF Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4445052.00 4421132 4418314 4419008 4413557 4379815 [+]
Unemployed Persons 183458.00 183125 188318 190057 192430 212322 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.80 1.79 1.84 1.91 1.99 2.93 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.80 10.67 10.79 10.94 11.09 12.25 percent [+]
Labour Costs 110.60 115 120 120 116 117 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 73713.00 64663 63046 62251 61507 56199 [+]
Wages 292944.00 292158 292141 291457 291004 286699 HUF/Month [+]
Wage Growth 13.60 14 12 9.8 5.1 2.8 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 411.52 364 425 439 440 400 EUR/Month [+]
Population 9.80 9.8 9.76 9.76 9.76 9.73 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.50 62.5 62.5 62.5 62 62.5 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.50 62.5 62.5 62.5 62 62.5 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.14 61.85 61.83 61.82 61.77 61.44 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 239100.00 226817 226868 226894 226920 226500 HUF/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 164300.00 153176 153587 153792 153998 151109 HUF/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 190.20 188 187 187 186 182 Thousand [+]
Productivity 107.50 111 95.97 100 103 107 Index Points [+]
Wages High Skilled 272000.00 236186 235857 235692 235528 236075 HUF/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 137900.00 118631 119002 119187 119373 118751 HUF/Month [+]
Employment Change 0.30 0.28 0.23 0.21 0.17 0.12 percent [+]
Employment Rate 59.68 59.37 59.28 59.29 59.23 58.75 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 4180.70 4114 4105 4099 4091 4026 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.7 0.22 0.2 0.22 0.5 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.30 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 1245.70 1248 1254 1257 1259 1256 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 421.40 422 423 424 425 426 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.70 1.9 2.86 2.97 3.08 2.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 143.70 145 144 144 144 144 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 104.50 102 102 102 103 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.50 3.6 3 3 3.16 2.1 percent [+]
Export Prices 101.70 102 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 101.50 102 102 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 103.30 104 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.40 3.54 3.85 4.08 4.25 4.78 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.25 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.03 0.05 0.1 0.18 0.26 0.93 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 5984.90 5912 5904 5896 5888 5816 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 18193.80 17870 17948 17967 17963 17805 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 21565.50 21027 21045 21041 21032 20943 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 22147.00 21641 21652 21645 21636 21545 HUF Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 22170.70 22088 22030 21978 21927 21491 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 37413.10 37027 36996 36958 36919 36566 HUF Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 6336.70 6378 6379 6376 6373 6342 HUF Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.15 -0.02 0.21 0.44 0.67 2.22 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 140.20 132 130 128 126 113 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 1.00 1.09 1.18 1.26 1.34 2.02 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 9150.10 9108 9067 9027 8988 8685 HUF Billion [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 162000.00 181430 165927 163530 159607 115722 HUF Million [+]
Exports 2752000.00 2518754 2597657 2616068 2588976 2561998 HUF Million [+]
Imports 2590000.00 2390019 2445291 2440179 2425905 2402798 HUF Million [+]
Current Account 1750.00 1582 1235 1314 1453 1178 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.80 4.4 4 4 4 3.4 percent [+]
External Debt 109435.34 109192 108975 108614 108396 104603 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.20 100 99.87 99.79 99.75 99.71 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 3849.60 1780 787 2103 1490 1203 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 397.90 648 536 551 749 685 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 247.50 210 208 206 204 192 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 3.08 2.77 3.05 2.98 2.96 3.03 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 0.84 0.32 0.38 0.45 0.52 0.74 [+]
Crude Oil Production 15.00 15.76 16.09 16.4 16.69 18.55 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 74.10 73.1 72.9 72.9 72.9 69.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.70 -1.4 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -0.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -220.80 -236 -60.33 -68.26 -69.25 -200 HUF Billion [+]
Government Spending 678252.00 704081 640492 679852 651411 676921 HUF Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 47.50 48.54 48.85 49.17 49.48 49.32 percent [+]
Government Revenues 1015544.00 948267 907195 867418 833361 662597 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt 26601.05 26623 26584 26553 26520 26237 HUF Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1226262.00 1125057 1067969 1024564 981377 762859 HUF Million [+]
Military Expenditure 1257.80 1278 1300 1322 1344 1456 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 265.00 4436 4680 4721 4725 4726 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 11.70 10.87 8.39 5.94 3.86 -3.63 [+]
Industrial Production 7.60 3.2 6.55 6.13 5.71 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 5.50 0.56 0.45 0.5 0.47 0.46 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.80 4.05 4.8 5.23 5.51 6.41 percent [+]
New Orders 98.20 111 110 111 111 112 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 5292.00 214664 57167 -111307 89150 116700 HUF Million [+]
Car Registrations 10366.00 9398 9445 9481 9493 9551 Cars [+]
Internet Speed 14814.21 14776 14638 14509 14431 13120 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 2456014.00 2407299 2389089 2388456 2380499 2334032 IP [+]
Mining Production 38.20 12.53 6.39 3.07 1.25 -0.94 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 58.60 57.19 55.42 54.3 53.62 52.53 [+]
Steel Production 163.00 162 162 161 160 157 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.33 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.35 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 60.00 64 64 64 64 56 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 48.00 49 51 52 53 48 [+]
Electricity Production 2516.00 2788 2836 2836 2826 2822 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 48.00 47 48 48 49 53 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 57.00 56 56 56 56 54 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -14.20 -15.13 -19.38 -21.72 -23.6 -29.42 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.30 0.6 0.29 0.26 0.26 0.6 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.30 2.5 5.22 4.89 4.6 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 3883716.00 3874953 3765989 3850860 3784916 3808197 HUF Million [+]
Personal Savings 9.62 9.63 9.82 10.01 10.2 10.96 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 5855.70 5857 5846 5834 5820 5704 HUF Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.90 0.93 1.08 1.24 1.4 2.67 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 469.55 464 463 462 460 447 HUF Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.36 1.36 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.32 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 19.70 18.29 18.29 18.29 18.29 18.29 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 39.39 34.17 33.13 32.1 31.07 23.82 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output 23.80 17.83 12.92 9.45 7.14 2.88 percent [+]
Housing Index 120.56 120 119 116 113 86.29 Index points [+]
Building Permits 1114.00 1180 1182 1184 1186 1193 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 86.30 86.03 86.3 86.57 86.84 89.1 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 9.00 19 13.5 10.75 8 10 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 17 18 18 19 24 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 27.00 26 26 26 26 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 47.00 46.9 46.87 46.84 46.81 46.6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.50 28.67 28.72 28.78 28.83 29.43 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 18.50 16.94 16.53 16.13 15.72 13.02 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature 2.00 4.23 7.36 15.83 12.7 6.51 celsius [+]
Precipitation 6.00 50.37 50.37 50.37 50.37 50.37 mm [+]