Hungary | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hungary including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hungary economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.60 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.20 2 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 297000.00 238732 251281 248288 248864 248829 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 74.10 73.09 73.17 73.24 72.92 69.98 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 274.94 293 296 304 302 348 [+]
Stock Market 34358.93 31600 31200 30300 30600 25500 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.10 3.42 3.46 3.49 3.53 4.07 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.10 2 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.4 percent [+]
GDP 121.72 129 124 134 124 145 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 6649999.00 6649999 6363783 6649998 6363784 6649997 HUF Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1184803.00 1209312 1244448 1220011 1221386 1223069 HUF Million [+]
GDP per capita 14519.10 14616 14770 14924 15016 15867 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 24831.35 24997 25261 25524 25681 27137 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 225718.00 220021 221171 221557 222772 221879 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Construction 192346.00 191953 196976 192025 194542 193909 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1246650.00 1249412 1243936 1248149 1245365 1246927 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 989854.00 989801 989764 988988 989751 989337 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Services 3581608.00 3617359 3634795 3651916 3667920 3798733 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Transport 280520.00 281390 281193 281326 281331 281332 HUF Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.60 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4378037.00 4417821 4411658 4403211 4406938 4407073 [+]
Unemployed Persons 209045.00 202992 205301 204109 204558 204383 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.00 1.75 1.69 1.65 1.62 1.56 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.50 9.56 9.03 8.63 8.35 7.6 percent [+]
Labour Costs 113.40 120 115 118 127 129 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 55526.00 61533 63727 61685 65392 68885 [+]
Wages 298276.00 281249 286536 284806 285365 285230 HUF/Month [+]
Wage Growth 12.80 4.2 9.64 3.7 9.65 2.8 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 411.52 354 410 364 422 400 EUR/Month [+]
Population 9.83 9.81 9.8 9.79 9.79 9.71 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.50 62.31 62.31 62.31 62.69 63.36 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.50 62.49 62.53 62.56 62.6 63.23 [+]
Employment Change 0.50 0.52 0.52 0.49 0.49 0.48 percent [+]
Employment Rate 58.56 59.11 59.02 58.95 58.98 58.98 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 4157.10 4206 4228 4239 4250 4311 Thousand [+]
Productivity 113.00 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 201.70 198 196 194 193 189 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.35 61.81 61.71 61.65 61.68 61.68 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 230141.50 232992 234156 233612 233866 233785 HUF/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 180032.10 177288 176479 175905 175498 174526 HUF/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 271000.00 284459 284589 284551 284562 284559 HUF/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 116300.00 114317 114062 113863 113708 113197 HUF/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20 2 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.5 0.15 0.7 0.15 0.5 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.40 99.97 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 1233.30 1238 1243 1246 1248 1251 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 414.20 416 418 420 422 442 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.90 1.6 1.88 1.9 1.88 2.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 144.44 142 143 145 142 149 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 104.20 101 102 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.20 3.4 4.2 3.6 3 2.1 percent [+]
Export Prices 102.00 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 102.80 102 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 105.90 106 106 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.90 1.84 1.84 1.84 1.84 1.84 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 5540.40 5519 5514 5513 5513 5513 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 16216.80 16948 17654 18350 19042 26360 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 19950.80 20052 20133 20168 20180 20191 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 20695.50 20883 21090 21296 21501 23696 HUF Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 24376.30 24493 24420 24418 24406 24408 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 36620.70 36723 36843 36961 37075 38104 HUF Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 6034.70 6068 6065 6065 6065 6065 HUF Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 1.00 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 9949.80 9928 9909 9908 9907 9907 HUF Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 144.91 137 136 134 134 124 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 297000.00 238732 251281 248288 248864 248829 HUF Million [+]
Exports 2919000.00 2457568 2584978 2581663 2560066 2570381 HUF Million [+]
Imports 2622000.00 2254097 2365068 2347660 2342306 2346068 HUF Million [+]
Current Account 688.00 1304 1405 999 1216 1171 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 5.00 5.2 4.02 4.93 4.74 4.31 percent [+]
External Debt 108008.64 104738 102547 101007 99611 87687 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.22 99.05 99.08 99.09 99.09 99.09 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 184.20 2082 563 959 576 1223 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2021.40 1088 689 612 600 683 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 227.00 239 240 240 240 240 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 14.00 14.18 14.18 14.18 14.18 14.18 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.23 0.64 0.33 0.01 0.02 0.25 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 74.10 73.09 73.17 73.24 72.92 69.98 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.70 -1.7 -1.71 -1.7 -1.94 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 76.60 -155 -89.46 -236 -74.23 -200 HUF Billion [+]
Government Spending 719280.00 695364 661573 709942 671781 695081 HUF Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 47.50 48.74 48.49 48.23 48.25 46.94 percent [+]
Government Revenues 1031016.00 1111760 1046439 1059611 1059052 1058565 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt 26124.74 26165 26192 26193 26194 26193 HUF Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 962708.00 1181004 1114916 1131118 1129122 1129350 HUF Million [+]
Asylum Applications 580.00 1235 1264 1340 1278 1299 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 1224.60 1191 1203 1216 1217 1218 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 7.90 8.04 8.57 8.69 8.72 8.73 [+]
Industrial Production 13.40 1.2 12.19 3.2 11.68 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.40 0.45 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.34 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.70 4.16 4.38 4.46 4.5 4.53 percent [+]
New Orders 113.40 104 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 256586.00 5403 238136 235218 103863 190917 HUF Million [+]
Car Registrations 8681.00 8774 8893 8673 8705 8670 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.20 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 69.00 67 67 67 70 69 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 41.00 42 42 42 43 44 [+]
Electricity Production 2726.00 2536 2629 2625 2564 2589 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 48.00 49 49 49 50 54 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 57.00 54 54 55 55 52 [+]
Mining Production 6.20 1.06 0.39 0.59 0.53 0.55 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 55.90 54.92 53.88 53.26 52.89 52.34 [+]
Steel Production 159.00 152 154 153 153 153 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -16.10 -17.29 -14.76 -15.38 -15.41 -15.34 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.80 0.4 0.37 0.6 0.37 0.6 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 5.60 4.4 3.72 2.5 3.88 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 3945777.00 3900649 3807977 4032274 3844548 4138711 HUF Million [+]
Personal Savings 9.62 9.98 9.67 9.35 9.39 9.44 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 5771.20 5752 5757 5755 5755 5755 HUF Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.88 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 399.38 404 405 405 405 405 HUF Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.20 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 20.60 19.05 18.76 18.43 18.09 15.23 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 39.39 40.09 38.85 37.6 37.28 36.2 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 33.30 20.24 19.12 19.6 19.41 19.43 percent [+]
Housing Index 119.73 123 125 126 128 135 Index points [+]
Building Permits 1365.00 1131 1037 1057 1061 1059 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 86.30 87.05 86.85 86.64 86.6 89.61 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 9.00 18.99 18.99 18.99 7.07 7.91 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15.46 16.39 17.32 16.91 16.35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 27.00 27 27 27 27 27 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 47.00 48.55 49.3 50.04 50.48 52.41 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.50 28.47 28.48 28.48 28.48 28.46 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 18.50 18.55 18.08 17.61 17.77 18.11 percent [+]