Hungary - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hungary including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hungary economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.90 3.8 4 4.2 4.3 5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.30 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 2 percent
Balance of Trade 174000.00 300000 300000 130000 40000 50000 HUF Million
Government Debt to GDP 73.60 72.9 72.9 72.9 69.1 69.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 272.37
259 264 270 275 299
Stock Market 35758.06
points
36021 34771 33566 32401 28134
Government Bond 10Y 3.14
percent
2.61 2.77 2.93 3.1 3.89
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20
percent
0.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.40
percent
3 2.9 2.7 3.9 2.4
GDP 124.34
USD Billion
127 129 138 142 145
GDP Constant Prices 6998646.00
HUF Million
6566029 6799050 7187609 6141182 7551475
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1557715.00
HUF Million
1486731 1528944 1599773 1466343 1680760
GDP per capita 14840.39
USD
15380 15380 15380 15520 15790
GDP per capita PPP 25381.29
USD
25718 25824 25931 26738 26839
GDP From Agriculture 188929.00
HUF Million
195423 195180 194030 202250 203853
GDP From Construction 290880.00
HUF Million
258413 277595 298734 244058 313857
GDP From Manufacturing 1318531.00
HUF Million
1329936 1303308 1354131 1313107 1422683
GDP From Public Administration 974223.00
HUF Million
996889 992283 1000527 1028966 1051178
GDP From Services 3736857.00
HUF Million
3712380 3758542 3837752 3772469 4032035
GDP From Transport 310184.00
HUF Million
301637 309941 318559 303049 334686
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.90
percent
3.8 4 4.2 4.3 5
Employed Persons 4435200.00
4442148 4440858 4440869 4441194 4441088
Unemployed Persons 178000.00
176970 178064 177643 177862 177811
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.50
percent
1.39 1.42 1.49 1.57 2.73
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.40
percent
10.83 10.99 10.89 10.95 10.93
Labour Costs 115.20
Index Points
115 114 115 114 115
Job Vacancies 73216.00
71615 71076 71311 71208 71240
Wages 331505.00
HUF/Month
339000 339000 367000 342000 375000
Wage Growth 11.30
percent
9.8 5.1 3.4 12.42 2.8
Minimum Wages 444.69
EUR/Month
445 445 445 500 550
Population 9.80
Million
9.76 9.76 9.77 9.77 9.71
Retirement Age Women 63.50
63.5 63.5 63.5 64 64.5
Retirement Age Men 63.50
63.5 63.5 63.5 64 64.5
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.03
percent
62.32 62.25 62.23 62.26 62.25
Living Wage Family 239100.00
HUF/Month
239900 239900 239900 239900 239900
Living Wage Individual 164300.00
HUF/Month
164300 164300 164300 164300 164300
Part Time Employment 191.10
Thousand
191 178 191 178 191
Productivity 119.00
Index Points
99.86 106 117 101 112
Wages High Skilled 272000.00
HUF/Month
280083 280083 280083 280083 285074
Wages Low Skilled 137900.00
HUF/Month
140900 140900 140900 140900 141750
Employment Change 0.60
percent
0.34 0.27 0.22 0.21 0.14
Employment Rate 68.70
percent
73.35 71.16 71.14 71.5 71.43
Full Time Employment 4206.70
Thousand
4207 4208 4207 4208 4208
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.30
percent
2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.70
percent
0.22 0.22 0.6 0.21 0.5
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.70
Index Points
102 102 102 104 108
Consumer Price Index CPI 1261.90
Index Points
1250 1264 1275 1283 1341
Core Consumer Prices 424.40
Index Points
426 431 432 433 455
Core Inflation Rate 2.40
percent
2.2 2.43 2.2 2.46 2.8
GDP Deflator 151.69
Index Points
149 146 148 147 147
Producer Prices 103.50
Index Points
105 108 107 106 112
Producer Prices Change 3.50
percent
3 3.45 2.6 2.4 2.1
Export Prices 100.20
Index Points
99.69 99.64 99.65 99.65 99.65
Import Prices 100.20
Index Points
99.79 99.62 99.71 99.66 99.68
CPI Transportation 100.80
Index Points
102 106 107 113 113
Food Inflation 4.10
percent
2.94 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.90
percent
0.9 0.9 0.9 1 2
Interbank Rate 0.12
percent
0.12 0.12 0.12 0.22 1.22
Money Supply M0 6755.40
HUF Billion
6754 6750 6750 6750 6750
Money Supply M1 19875.00
HUF Billion
20203 19284 17981 16977 18099
Money Supply M2 23021.30
HUF Billion
22795 22809 22804 22794 22659
Money Supply M3 23512.00
HUF Billion
22715 21694 20980 21090 22444
Foreign Exchange Reserves 23167.70
EUR Million
22875 23023 22834 22874 22895
Banks Balance Sheet 38307.30
HUF Billion
37697 37573 37501 37461 37407
Loans to Private Sector 6564.10
HUF Billion
6375 6353 6337 6326 6298
Deposit Interest Rate -0.15
percent
-0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.05 0.95
Private Debt to GDP 131.46
percent
125 125 125 117 112
Cash Reserve Ratio 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
Central Bank Balance Sheet 9343.90
HUF Billion
9307 9262 9218 9176 8777
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 174000.00
HUF Million
300000 300000 130000 40000 50000
Exports 2850000.00
HUF Million
2920000 2890000 2510000 3120000 2880000
Imports 2675000.00
HUF Million
2620000 2590000 2380000 3080000 2830000
Current Account 197.35
EUR Million
1720 840 550 1200 320
Current Account to GDP 2.80
percent
4 4 4 3.6 3.4
External Debt 103481.56
EUR Million
106523 106523 106523 106523 106523
Terms of Trade 100.00
Index Points
99.9 100 99.95 99.99 99.97
Capital Flows 976.40
EUR Million
931 826 905 846 872
Foreign Direct Investment -1064.10
EUR Million
-237 -171 -187 -183 -184
Remittances 268.10
EUR Million
246 239 238 234 206
Gold Reserves 3.10
Tonnes
2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95
Terrorism Index 0.84
0.66 0.74 0.81 0.79 0.67
Crude Oil Production 13.00
BBL/D/1K
15.04 14.57 14.22 14.45 14.49
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 73.60
percent
72.9 72.9 72.9 69.1 69.5
Government Budget -2.00
percent of GDP
-1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.94 -0.4
Government Budget Value -209.40
HUF Billion
-222809 -237027 -234850 -234781 -234936
Government Spending 784100.00
HUF Million
688714 683816 805271 639290 846037
Government Spending to GDP 46.50
percent
48.74 48.49 48.23 48.25 47.66
Government Revenues 1131159.00
HUF Million
1168483 1113306 1126041 1123167 1123631
Government Debt 27644.55
HUF Billion
27723 27764 27759 27763 27762
Fiscal Expenditure 1367893.00
HUF Million
1391292 1350333 1360794 1357949 1358567
Military Expenditure 1349.50
USD Million
1231 1269 1307 1317 1425
Asylum Applications 55.00
persons
217 204 210 209 209
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 13.80
Index Points
13.69 13.67 13.66 13.66 13.66
Industrial Production -2.40
percent
5.3 4.96 2.8 4.55 2.2
Industrial Production Mom -0.70
percent
0.07 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Manufacturing Production 3.80
percent
5.12 4.84 4.59 4.53 4.63
New Orders 95.00
Index Points
103 103 103 103 103
Changes in Inventories 171291.00
HUF Million
58957 44704 48957 47688 47979
Car Registrations 12056.00
11049 11561 11186 11292 11231
Internet Speed 14814.21
KBps
14509 14431 14299 14143 12574
IP Addresses 2456014.00
IP
2388456 2380499 2370310 2366928 2318826
Mining Production 72.30
percent
18.43 20.34 57.15 76.61 36.14
Manufacturing Pmi 53.30
55.64 54.62 53.94 53.49 52.62
Steel Production 165.00
Thousand Tonnes
163 165 165 165 165
Competitiveness Index 4.33
Points
4.26 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.26
Competitiveness Rank 60.00
64 64 64 53 61
Ease of Doing Business 48.00
48 48 48 48 48
Electricity Production 2441.00
Gigawatt-hour
2450 2736 2684 2567 2624
Corruption Index 45.00
Points
45 45 45 45 45
Corruption Rank 66.00
62 65 67 67 66
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -7.50
Index Points
-8.53 -9.25 -8.2 -8.82 -8.64
Retail Sales MoM 1.00
percent
0.35 0.59 0.8 0.61 0.6
Retail Sales YoY 7.10
percent
6.2 5.65 2.1 5.18 1.4
Consumer Spending 4190219.00
HUF Million
4002407 3941694 4303355 3873782 4521208
Personal Savings 9.62
percent
9.98 9.72 9.46 9.48 9.52
Private Sector Credit 5767.70
HUF Billion
5810 5809 5809 5808 5808
Bank Lending Rate 0.90
percent
0.9 0.9 0.9 1 2
Consumer Credit 524.76
HUF Billion
482 452 418 390 387
Gasoline Prices 1.44
USD/Liter
1.34 1.27 1.19 1.13 0.78
Households Debt To Gdp 19.50
percent of GDP
19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6
Households Debt To Income 39.39
percent
40.09 38.85 37.6 37.28 36.77
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Construction Output 1.40
percent
34.47 28.27 27.61 32.08 35.6
Housing Index 125.83
Index points
128 128 127 126 98.36
Building Permits 1133.00
1135 1125 1107 1107 1110
Home Ownership Rate 85.30
percent
86.03 86.08 86.14 86.12 85.96
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 9.00
percent
9 9 9 10 13
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Sales Tax Rate 27.00
percent
27 27 27 27 27
Social Security Rate 42.00
percent
42 42 42 42 42
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.50
percent
23.08 23.08 23.08 23.25 21.15
Social Security Rate For Employees 18.50
percent
18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 2.61
celsius
14.92 18.86 4.63 0.65 9.98
Precipitation 6.99
mm
63.65 59.85 49.81 35.49 53.34