Hungary | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hungary including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hungary economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.60 1.9 2 2.1 2 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 99000.00 219404 192931 181043 177460 125481 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 74.10 73.1 73.1 72.9 72.9 69.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 257.14 252 250 247 245 217 [+]
Stock Market 38108.04 34500 34200 33800 33500 29700 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.88 3.2 3.23 3.27 3.3 3.65 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.20 3.2 3.4 3.3 3 2.4 percent [+]
GDP 124.34 128 134 128 125 145 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 6407295.00 6369969 6629885 5944684 6361074 6546760 HUF Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1390926.00 1385002 1376151 1368859 1365511 1334557 HUF Million [+]
GDP per capita 14840.39 15099 15162 15218 15274 15633 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 25381.29 25824 25931 26027 26123 26738 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 199019.00 195600 192331 188454 185348 178379 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Construction 223174.00 222346 223082 222035 221481 216149 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1304056.00 1313190 1319677 1314521 1311062 1275119 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 985320.00 984557 983610 982685 981793 973214 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Services 3626858.00 3637530 3646571 3652440 3655205 3633363 HUF Million [+]
GDP From Transport 281664.00 280787 280306 279873 279109 272716 HUF Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4433638.00 4431397 4415999 4420553 4423322 4421620 [+]
Unemployed Persons 193414.00 197284 194002 194843 194182 194232 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.90 1.76 1.73 1.71 1.69 1.66 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.60 10.35 10.19 10.1 10.02 9.84 percent [+]
Labour Costs 121.10 114 115 120 120 117 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 65711.00 65552 64663 63046 62251 56199 [+]
Wages 297251.00 294126 294889 294664 294728 294714 HUF/Month [+]
Wage Growth 13.10 12.77 3.7 12.81 12.81 2.8 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 411.52 410 364 422 434 400 EUR/Month [+]
Population 9.80 9.8 9.8 9.76 9.76 9.71 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.50 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.50 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 [+]
Employment Change 0.30 0.76 0.65 0.61 0.68 0.69 percent [+]
Employment Rate 59.43 59.45 59.27 59.31 59.33 59.32 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 4128.90 4181 4185 4180 4190 4215 Thousand [+]
Productivity 101.10 103 111 95.97 100 107 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 193.70 192 190 187 186 182 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.02 62.08 61.95 61.96 61.98 61.97 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 230141.50 220567 220345 220274 220252 220241 HUF/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 180032.10 176684 176086 175643 175314 174414 HUF/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 271000.00 284589 284551 284562 284559 284559 HUF/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 116300.00 114062 113863 113708 113587 113197 HUF/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.60 1.9 2 2.1 2 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.12 0.7 0.22 0.21 0.5 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.00 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 1236.40 1237 1241 1243 1244 1239 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 419.50 421 424 427 429 438 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.80 2.86 1.9 3.12 3.21 2.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 145.36 144 145 144 144 144 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 101.20 102 102 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.20 4.2 3.6 3 3 2.1 percent [+]
Export Prices 100.00 99.56 100 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 99.70 98.28 99.44 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 103.70 104 104 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.20 3.26 3.56 3.84 4.07 4.78 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.12 0.16 0.21 0.29 0.37 1.13 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 5932.50 5752 5763 5757 5758 5758 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 17037.80 17209 17271 17283 17276 17104 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 20414.50 20491 20489 20482 20473 20377 HUF Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 21078.60 21138 21128 21119 21110 21011 HUF Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 22366.40 22369 22241 22183 22130 21629 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 36863.40 37011 37145 37273 37398 38435 HUF Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 6136.40 6126 6123 6123 6123 6123 HUF Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.15 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 9574.80 9497 9490 9485 9485 9485 HUF Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 140.20 136 134 133 132 123 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 99000.00 219404 192931 181043 177460 125481 HUF Million [+]
Exports 2337000.00 2595952 2477199 2516027 2527596 2479940 HUF Million [+]
Imports 2238000.00 2339289 2275754 2301391 2297600 2264005 HUF Million [+]
Current Account 1750.00 1495 1148 1275 1293 1286 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.80 4.4 4.4 4 4 3.4 percent [+]
External Debt 109591.45 106380 105660 105439 104629 99292 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.30 100 100 99.9 99.81 99.71 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 282.50 252 1148 237 1274 1160 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2678.80 685 636 562 536 684 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 227.00 240 240 240 240 240 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 3.08 1.99 2.29 2.47 2.39 2.38 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 13.00 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.23 0.33 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.25 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 74.10 73.1 73.1 72.9 72.9 69.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.70 -1.71 -1.7 -1.94 -1.88 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -163.10 -169 -236 -72.43 -68.69 -200 HUF Billion [+]
Government Spending 683022.00 651993 704081 640492 679852 676921 HUF Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 47.50 48.49 48.23 48.25 48.26 46.94 percent [+]
Government Revenues 1102288.00 1044661 1039112 1042610 1041502 1041645 HUF Million [+]
Government Debt 25906.12 25926 25987 25951 25966 25962 HUF Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1043637.00 1112176 1170950 1155545 1160738 1160187 HUF Million [+]
Asylum Applications 225.00 374 305 315 325 318 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 1257.80 1143 1176 1192 1208 1266 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 10.20 9.73 7.2 4.75 2.73 -4.38 [+]
Industrial Production 0.20 1.75 3.2 2.22 2.26 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -4.20 -0.5 0.63 0.49 0.49 0.46 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.80 5.82 5.85 5.9 5.93 5.94 percent [+]
New Orders 97.50 105 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories -168730.00 152994 214664 57167 -111307 116700 HUF Million [+]
Car Registrations 8912.00 9810 9886 9773 9775 9770 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.20 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 69.00 67 67 69 70 69 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 41.00 42 42 43 43 44 [+]
Electricity Production 2671.00 2572 2631 2572 2557 2579 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 48.00 49 49 50 50 54 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 57.00 54 55 55 55 52 [+]
Mining Production 41.80 28.89 29.87 30.26 30.17 30.14 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 56.60 55.45 54.11 53.39 52.98 52.4 [+]
Steel Production 162.00 161 161 161 161 161 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -13.60 -15.05 -18.95 -21.79 -23.56 -29.72 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.40 0.27 0.6 0.25 0.25 0.6 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.10 4.56 2.5 3.99 3.8 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 3903301.00 3755882 3874953 3765989 3850860 3808197 HUF Million [+]
Personal Savings 9.62 9.67 9.35 9.39 9.43 9.44 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 5825.90 5831 5825 5813 5800 5671 HUF Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 442.05 448 450 450 448 438 HUF Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.31 1.33 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.3 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 20.30 19.09 18.84 18.56 18.25 16.1 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 39.39 38.85 37.6 37.28 36.95 36.2 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Construction Output 22.70 25.13 26.03 26.2 26.21 26.21 percent [+]
Housing Index 115.68 119 120 122 122 128 Index points [+]
Building Permits 1110.00 1180 1178 1181 1183 1193 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 86.30 86.08 86.14 86.12 86.1 85.97 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 9.00 18.99 18.99 10.05 7.07 7.91 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 16.39 17.32 16.91 16.5 16.35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 27.00 27 27 27 27 27 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 47.00 49.3 50.04 50.48 50.91 52.41 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.50 28.48 28.48 28.48 28.48 28.46 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 18.50 18.08 17.61 17.77 17.92 18.11 percent [+]