Egypt | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Egypt including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Egypt economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.40 3.6 4 3.7 4.1 4.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.98 12.3 12 11.6 11.8 11 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 31.92 34.2 26.2 18.5 13.8 9.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 16.75 11.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1818.00 -2100 -1800 -1800 -2500 -2700 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 92.30 98 98 89 89 83 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Stock Market 13695.33 13200 13100 12900 12800 11300 points [+]
Currency 17.61 17.46 17.29 17.11 16.93 14.99 [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.40 3.6 4 3.7 4.1 4.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.90 3.6 4 3.7 4.1 4.9 percent [+]
GDP 336.30 290 290 302 302 335 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 470403.80 522416 513424 488710 523745 588142 EGP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 75.00 69 69 72 72 85 EGP Billion [+]
GDP per capita 2724.40 2500 2500 2600 2600 2850 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 10319.30 9500 9500 9800 9800 10800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 50356.70 70100 52000 54000 53000 57000 EGP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 24152.50 24237 28428 24319 28348 27992 EGP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 76581.80 79748 86812 82168 83103 99819 EGP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 59431.50 60924 62961 62796 62248 65330 EGP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 18512.80 23339 20513 20339 26339 25000 EGP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.98 12.3 12 11.6 11.8 11 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 3503.00 3580 3550 3500 3550 3680 Thousand [+]
Minimum Wages 1200.00 1200 1200 1200 1200 1400 EGP/Month [+]
Population 92.80 94 94 96 96 100 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 3565.20 3600 3700 3800 3800 4100 EGP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2177.60 2250 2250 2300 2300 2615 EGP/Month [+]
Employed Persons 25687.00 26236 26163 26063 26175 28164 Thousand [+]
Wages High Skilled 3950.00 4200 4300 4400 4500 5200 EGP/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1440.00 1500 1600 1650 1700 2100 EGP/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 31.92 34.2 26.2 18.5 13.8 9.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.13 1.6 1.3 1.4 1 0.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 250.80 259 273 287 302 441 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 233.20 244 257 271 284 400 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 34.86 31.4 19 12.8 11.7 8.6 percent [+]
Food Inflation 41.61 36 27 12 15 7.3 percent [+]
Producer Prices 301.70 285 288 294 298 320 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 35.70 36.6 22.8 16.6 12.3 6.4 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 149.90 144 146 147 149 163 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 205.10 185 187 189 191 212 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 16.75 11.75 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 586897.00 531192 532051 535175 538184 620173 EGP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 698358.00 714108 738939 763794 788552 1030831 EGP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2940815.00 3051980 3226254 3388209 3550889 5090299 EGP Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2846094.00 3302285 3537937 3715114 3892290 5509743 EGP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 36143.00 30800 32000 34712 37723 50400 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 731089.00 756657 792069 820741 849955 1091585 EGP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.86 14 14 12 12 8 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 9.30 10 10 10 10 9 percent [+]
Lending Rate 19.75 17.75 17.75 17.75 17.75 9.75 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4420860.00 4886981 5207722 5528952 5837020 8450195 EGP Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1818.00 -2100 -1800 -1800 -2500 -2700 USD Million [+]
Exports 2276.00 1700 2300 2500 2600 3400 USD Million [+]
Imports 4602.00 3800 4100 4300 5100 6100 USD Million [+]
Current Account -2396.40 -4500 -4400 -4800 -3600 -2700 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -5.90 -5.2 -5.2 -5 -5 -3.9 percent [+]
External Debt 73888.60 84116 89920 94165 98884 48100 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 3348.80 3600 3400 3800 3300 3400 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 4395.30 7300 12000 5000 6400 15000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 4624.30 2900 3800 4200 4100 4800 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 3.80 4.8 4.8 8.9 8.9 9.1 USD Billion [+]
Tourist Arrivals 574.00 610 657 700 670 890 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 76.28 76.28 76.28 76.28 76.28 76.28 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 486.00 487 487 488 489 495 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 7.33 7.6 7.6 7.1 7.1 5.9 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 92.30 98 98 89 89 83 percent [+]
Government Budget -9.80 -10.3 -10.3 -9.5 -9.5 -8.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 305038.00 -41394 -41394 -28497 -28497 -192981 Million EGP [+]
Government Spending 82.00 79 74 90 93 107 EGP Billion [+]
Government Revenues 669756.00 695000 695000 720000 720000 840000 Million EGP [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 974794.00 1017867 1060818 1074839 1088859 1246894 Million EGP [+]
Military Expenditure 5357.00 6200 6200 7000 7000 8000 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Manufacturing PMI 48.90 48.1 47.7 48.9 49.5 50.5 [+]
Industrial Production 25.10 3.1 -2.8 1.9 4.5 6.4 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.47 2.8 5.4 -2.9 -1.6 1.9 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.60 2.5 -3.8 0.6 1.2 5.8 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 7.00 4 4 4.11 4.08 4.28 EGP Billion [+]
Ease of Doing Business 122.00 126 128 127 127 127 [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.67 3.73 3.72 3.64 3.62 3.6 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 115.00 114 114 113 113 113 [+]
Corruption Index 34.00 35 35 35 35 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 108.00 112 117 114 111 99 [+]
Steel Production 535.00 527 533 529 531 531 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Spending 770.00 810 670 650 720 1010 EGP Billion [+]
Consumer Confidence 64.00 60 62 65 67 82 [+]
Consumer Credit 242396.00 247095 253982 260859 267653 331480 EGP Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 18.50 17.5 16.5 16 16 12 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 13.00 13 13 13 13 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 40.00 40 40 40 40 40 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 26.00 26 26 26 26 26 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.00 14 14 14 14 14 percent [+]