Egypt | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Egypt including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Egypt economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.40 3.8 3.6 4 3.7 4.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 12.00 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.5 11.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 31.50 29.2 29.1 20 14.7 9.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 16.75 16.75 16.75 16.75 16.75 11.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -2508.00 -2700 -2100 -1800 -1800 -2700 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 85.00 98 98 98 89 83 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Stock Market 13094.42 12800 12700 12300 12400 10300 points [+]
Currency 18.07 18.42 18.6 19.15 18.97 21.89 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.40 3.8 3.6 4 3.7 4.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.40 3.8 3.6 4 3.7 4.9 percent [+]
GDP 330.78 290 290 290 302 335 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 493676.70 502153 522416 513424 488710 588142 EGP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 66.00 69 69 69 72 85 EGP Billion [+]
GDP per capita 2707.09 2500 2500 2500 2600 2850 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 10249.96 9500 9500 9500 9800 10800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 50651.90 50652 70100 52000 54000 57000 EGP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 27632.70 27349 22028 27054 22048 25486 EGP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 82372.60 78340 79748 86812 82168 99819 EGP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 60399.00 60181 60924 62961 62796 65330 EGP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 20950.90 25339 23339 21339 20339 25000 EGP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 12.00 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.5 11.7 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 3503.00 3460 3580 3550 3500 3680 Thousand [+]
Minimum Wages 1200.00 1200 1200 1200 1200 1400 EGP/Month [+]
Population 92.80 94 94 94 96 100 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 3565.20 3600 3600 3700 3800 4100 EGP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2177.60 2250 2250 2250 2300 2615 EGP/Month [+]
Employed Persons 25646.00 25769 26236 26163 26163 28164 Thousand [+]
Wages High Skilled 3950.00 4110 4200 4300 4400 5200 EGP/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1440.00 1480 1500 1600 1650 2100 EGP/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 31.50 29.2 29.1 20 14.7 9.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.69 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 0.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 234.40 243 257 271 285 430 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 217.90 225 239 251 263 372 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 32.06 31.5 31.4 19 12.8 8.6 percent [+]
Food Inflation 43.61 38 36 27 12 7.3 percent [+]
Producer Prices 278.20 281 285 288 294 320 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 37.50 38.5 36.6 29.3 16.6 6.4 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 140.90 142 144 145 147 162 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 181.40 183 185 187 189 212 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 16.75 16.75 16.75 16.75 16.75 11.75 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 539589.00 535770 531192 532051 535175 620173 EGP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 631016.00 645032 661149 677826 694621 874332 EGP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2750837.00 3023353 3242862 3456935 3684475 5960171 EGP Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2846094.00 3066634 3302285 3537937 3715114 5509743 EGP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 28641.00 29000 30800 32000 34712 50400 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 723367.00 793452 851490 907208 963003 1459274 EGP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.90 14 14 14 12 8 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 9.30 9.3 10 10 10 9 percent [+]
Lending Rate 17.75 17.75 17.75 17.75 17.75 9.75 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4115366.00 4680131 5006021 5322527 5629919 8479606 EGP Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -2508.00 -2700 -2100 -1800 -1800 -2700 USD Million [+]
Exports 2159.00 2200 1700 2300 2500 3400 USD Million [+]
Imports 4668.00 4900 3800 4100 4300 6100 USD Million [+]
Current Account -4666.10 -3900 -4500 -4400 -4800 -2700 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -5.90 -5.2 -5.2 -5.2 -5 -3.9 percent [+]
External Debt 67322.60 46900 76354 78924 80470 48100 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 3981.00 3100 3600 3400 3800 3400 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 10526.10 6200 7300 12000 5000 15000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 4604.80 3900 2900 3800 4200 4800 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 7.50 4.8 4.8 4.8 8.9 9.1 USD Billion [+]
Tourist Arrivals 539.00 556 610 657 526 890 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 75.58 75.57 75.57 75.57 75.57 75.57 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 490.00 490 490 490 490 490 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 7.33 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.1 5.9 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 85.00 98 98 98 89 83 percent [+]
Government Budget -9.80 -10.3 -10.3 -10.3 -9.5 -8.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 305038.00 -41394 -34259 -27124 -28497 -192981 Million EGP [+]
Government Spending 82.00 86 79 74 90 107 EGP Billion [+]
Government Revenues 669756.00 695000 695000 695000 720000 840000 Million EGP [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 974794.00 974915 1017867 1060818 1074839 1246894 Million EGP [+]
Military Expenditure 5361.60 6200 6200 6200 7000 8000 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Manufacturing PMI 47.40 46.8 48.1 47.7 48.9 50.5 [+]
Industrial Production 15.96 12.5 3.1 -2.8 1.9 6.4 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 12.13 -3 2.8 5.4 -2.9 1.9 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 11.18 9.8 2.5 -3.8 0.6 5.8 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 4.00 3.28 4 4 3.23 3.28 EGP Billion [+]
Ease of Doing Business 122.00 123 126 128 127 127 [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.67 3.72 3.73 3.72 3.62 3.6 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 115.00 114 114 114 113 113 [+]
Corruption Index 34.00 34 35 35 35 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 108.00 106 112 117 114 99 [+]
Steel Production 560.00 527 541 540 537 539 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Spending 722.00 630 810 670 650 1010 EGP Billion [+]
Consumer Confidence 64.00 58 60 62 65 82 [+]
Consumer Credit 235947.00 244349 252582 260767 268875 353267 EGP Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 16.60 17 17.5 16.5 16 12 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 13.00 13 13 13 13 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 40.00 40 40 40 40 40 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 26.00 26 26 26 26 26 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.00 14 14 14 14 14 percent [+]