Egypt - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Egypt including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Egypt economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.60 10.5 10.4 10.3 10 11 percent
Inflation Rate 13.10 12.8 13.2 14 13 9.5 percent
Interest Rate 16.75 16.75 16.75 16.75 14.75 11.75 percent
Balance of Trade -3395.00 -2100 -2920 -3300 -2620 -2700 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 101.20 89 89 89 85 83 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Stock Market 16633.97
points
16928 16366 15823 15298 13366
Currency 17.87
17.88 18.06 18.24 18.42 19.17
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.40
percent
5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.8
GDP 336.30
USD Billion
302 350 302 320 335
GDP Constant Prices 885504.30
EGP Million
946705 898130 935093 935093 1045720
GDP per capita 2724.40
USD
2600 2600 2600 2800 2850
GDP per capita PPP 10319.30
USD
9800 10532 10200 10500 10800
GDP From Agriculture 88705.60
EGP Million
102623 132132 93673 93673 104755
GDP From Construction 54931.10
EGP Million
60287 43696 58007 58007 64870
GDP From Manufacturing 160670.40
EGP Million
140451 153852 169668 169668 189741
GDP From Mining 82516.90
EGP Million
103939 59779 87138 87138 97447
GDP From Transport 37907.20
EGP Million
48481 44264 40030 40030 44766
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.60
percent
10.5 10.4 10.3 10 11
Unemployed Persons 3309.00
Thousand
3570 3470 3600 3452 3280
Minimum Wages 1200.00
EGP/Month
1200 1500 1500 1800 2000
Population 96.20
Million
96 94.61 96 96.05 100
Wages High Skilled 3500.00
EGP/Month
4700 4700 4700 5000 5200
Wages Low Skilled 2160.00
EGP/Month
2250 2250 2250 2550 2700
Living Wage Family 2580.00
EGP/Month
3800 3800 3900 4000 4100
Living Wage Individual 1110.00
EGP/Month
2300 2300 2480 1110 2615
Employed Persons 26092.00
Thousand
25790 25830 26820 26535 28164
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 13.10
percent
12.8 13.2 14 13 9.5
Inflation Rate Mom 1.50
percent
1 0.99 1.1 0.98 0.7
Consumer Price Index CPI 265.20
Index Points
271 287 294 295 361
Core Consumer Prices 243.20
Index Points
271 289 268 306 324
Core Inflation Rate 11.62
percent
18 15 13 27.3 8.6
Food Inflation 11.04
percent
12 11.5 13 12 7
Producer Prices 180.50
Index Points
180 204 211 214 274
Producer Prices Change 24.80
percent
23 22 20 18.5 13
CPI Housing Utilities 155.80
Index Points
159 176 177 176 217
CPI Transportation 206.30
Index Points
205 232 234 232 287
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 16.75
percent
16.75 16.75 16.75 14.75 11.75
Money Supply M0 685855.00
EGP Million
538184 730497 548172 778446 620173
Money Supply M1 764826.00
EGP Million
771907 793339 814764 836090 1063988
Money Supply M2 3343225.00
EGP Million
3498501 3646361 3793902 3939446 5436187
Banks Balance Sheet 4420860.00
EGP Million
4420860 4420860 4420860 4420860 4420860
Foreign Exchange Reserves 44030.00
USD Million
37723 46414 43000 47050 50400
Loans to Private Sector 755551.00
EGP Million
753810 756877 758980 760243 762674
Deposit Interest Rate 12.09
percent
10.09 10.09 10.09 8.09 5.09
Lending Rate 17.75
percent
15.75 15.75 15.75 13.75 10.75
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4813343.00
EGP Million
4886268 4858569 4830185 4801953 4509935
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -3395.00
USD Million
-2100 -2920 -3300 -2620 -2700
Exports 2472.00
USD Million
2600 2280 2700 2500 3400
Imports 5868.00
USD Million
4700 5200 6000 5120 6100
Current Account -1784.70
USD Million
-3600 -2018 -3800 -2018 -2700
Current Account to GDP -5.90
percent
-5 -5 -5 -4.5 -3.9
External Debt 80831.90
USD Million
87654 88958 89912 90289 48100
Foreign Direct Investment 2950.50
USD Million
3300 2769 3500 2769 3400
Capital Flows 4180.10
USD Million
6400 5312 14000 5312 15000
Remittances 5973.60
USD Million
4100 5782 4200 5721 4800
Tourism Revenues 7.60
USD Billion
8.9 5.8 8.9 6.04 9.1
Tourist Arrivals 793.00
Thousand
670 700 769 700 890
Gold Reserves 76.40
Tonnes
76.4 76.4 76.41 76.41 76.41
Crude Oil Production 560.00
BBL/D/1K
563 563 563 563 563
Terrorism Index 7.17
7.1 6.68 7.1 6.52 5.9
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 101.20
percent
89 89 89 85 83
Government Budget -9.50
percent of GDP
-8.4 -8.4 -8.4 -8 -8.5
Government Budget Value -267551.00
Million EGP
-117968 -258423 -128510 -245077 -40224
Government Spending 86.00
EGP Billion
110 100 90.82 90.82 102
Government Revenues 538378.00
Million EGP
720000 575032 720000 588133 840000
Fiscal Expenditure 886774.00
Million EGP
837968 833455 828942 833210 880224
Military Expenditure 4003.80
USD Million
7000 7000 7000 5097 8000
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Manufacturing PMI 50.10
49.5 49.1 50.1 49.1 50.5
Industrial Production 11.10
percent
16.1 15.7 15.1 14.72 6.4
Industrial Production Mom 9.30
percent
-1.6 0.51 3.7 0.65 1.9
Manufacturing Production 52.30
percent
11.2 7 3.5 9.13 5.8
Changes in Inventories 7.00
EGP Billion
3.68 3.46 3.28 3.12 2.37
Internet Speed 1978.30
KBps
2328 2249 2214 2129 1994
IP Addresses 4504838.00
IP
3766707 3924053 3627106 3570467 3291307
Steel Production 615.18
Thousand Tonnes
621 623 632 624 627
Ease of Doing Business 128.00
128 128 128 128 128
Competitiveness Index 3.90
Points
3.79 3.79 3.79 4.04 4.1
Competitiveness Rank 100.00
112 112 112 99 97
Corruption Index 32.00
Points
32 32 32 32 32
Corruption Rank 117.00
117 117 117 117 117
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Spending 990.00
EGP Billion
819 1083 1045 1045 1169
Consumer Confidence 64.00
Index Points
67 80.13 71 81.04 82
Consumer Credit 274727.00
EGP Million
281013 290060 299045 307970 402286
Bank Lending Rate 19.30
percent
17.3 17.3 17.3 15.3 12.3
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.50
percent
22.5 22.5 22.5 23 22.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 22.50
percent
22.5 22.5 22.5 23 22.5
Sales Tax Rate 14.00
percent
14 14 14 14 16
Social Security Rate 40.00
percent
40 40 40 40 40
Social Security Rate For Companies 26.00
percent
26 26 26 26 26
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.00
percent
14 14 14 14 14
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 3.78
mm
2.16 2.19 3.08 3.92 2.9
Temperature 13.83
celsius
26.35 29.4 19.42 15.62 23.18