Armenia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Armenia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Armenia economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 16.50 17 16.8 16.2 16.3 15.6 percent
Inflation Rate 2.70 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4 percent
Interest Rate 6.00 6 5.75 5.75 5.75 6 percent
Balance of Trade -225.40 -213 -206 -200 -195 -169 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 42.23 37 37 40.27 37 31 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 479.92
481 481 481 481 481
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.50
percent
3.6 3.4 3.35 3.4 4.3
GDP 10.55
USD Billion
10.17 10.25 10.32 13 13.8
GDP Constant Prices 1583508.80
AMD Million
1011761 1186328 1572423 1485904 1467214
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 269965.60
AMD Million
109486 178827 271996 362122 351364
GDP per capita 3924.90
USD
3915 3902 3890 3878 3501
GDP per capita PPP 8174.40
USD
8153 8128 8102 8077 7291
GDP From Agriculture 334186.00
AMD Million
210698 210698 210698 210698 210698
GDP From Construction 123606.00
AMD Million
42870 89437 123593 156155 159015
GDP From Manufacturing 136414.50
AMD Million
110940 121468 132566 129508 123472
GDP From Mining 42298.30
AMD Million
32143 29429 31831 32624 31638
GDP From Public Administration 60752.90
AMD Million
60224 61957 60322 62460 59162
GDP From Services 27176.60
AMD Million
12550 18647 25571 20014 19507
GDP From Transport 41094.00
AMD Million
29008 31530 35835 34505 33459
GDP From Utilities 5883.90
AMD Million
5032 5477 5411 5071 4995
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 16.50
percent
17 16.8 16.2 16.3 15.6
Unemployed Persons 70.20
Thousand
68.57 68.31 68.5 68.85 73.37
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.40
percent
59.35 60.47 63.16 61.92 62.67
Wages 240277.00
AMD/Month
154547 149924 147731 148110 153494
Minimum Wages 55000.00
AMD/Year
55000 55000 60000 60000 65000
Population 3.00
Million
3.01 3.01 3.01 3.01 3.06
Retirement Age Women 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Men 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Wages In Manufacturing 183669.00
AMD/Monthly
180931 180406 179875 179354 173770
Employed Persons 846.00
Thousand
922 860 850 848 843
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.70
percent
3.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4
Consumer Price Index CPI 129.67
Index Points
132 132 132 131 129
Core Consumer Prices 100.70
Index Points
100 100 100 100 100
Core Inflation Rate 3.60
percent
4.18 4.19 3.96 3.67 3.08
Producer Prices 100.80
Index Points
100 100 100 100 100
Producer Prices Change 3.20
percent
3.2 4.6 4.8 5.8 3.7
Inflation Rate Mom 2.70
percent
0.31 -0.01 0.41 0.35 0.33
Import Prices 100.50
Index Points
100 100 100 100 100
Food Inflation 4.00
percent
2.4 2.2 2 2.1 2.4
Export Prices 102.00
Index Points
101 101 101 101 101
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.00
percent
6 5.75 5.75 5.75 6
Money Supply M0 928623.00
AMD Million
940581 947376 949242 949082 935825
Money Supply M1 735284.00
AMD Million
754602 761685 763381 762882 741072
Money Supply M2 1341975.00
AMD Million
1424388 1466686 1486439 1494435 1453886
Deposit Interest Rate 11.60
percent
15.89 14.31 12.74 11.16 16.19
Foreign Exchange Reserves 2284.90
USD Million
2288 2260 2234 2209 1965
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -225.40
USD Million
-213 -206 -200 -195 -169
Exports 231.90
USD Million
218 213 209 206 175
Imports 231.90
USD Million
312 297 293 288 265
Current Account 3.46
USD Million
-70.95 -9.09 -20.03 -65.17 -59.96
Current Account to GDP -2.90
percent
-2.8 -2.8 -3.66 -2.7 -3.2
External Debt 9902.79
USD Million
9820 9764 9716 9667 9115
Capital Flows 67.70
USD Million
25.37 -65.94 15.86 -47.63 -44.54
Terms Of Trade 101.50
Index Points
101 100 101 101 101
Terrorism Index 2.37
1.34 1.35 1.37 1.39 0.42
Tourist Arrivals 83054.00
Thousand
42100 69100 77500 50500 54800
Remittances 335.80
USD Million
272 323 355 401 361
Foreign Direct Investment 48.40
USD Million
74.32 47.4 53.13 76.86 65.14
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.23
percent
37 37 40.27 37 31
Government Budget -5.60
percent of GDP
-4.43 -4.33 -4.24 -4.14 -1.9
Government Budget Value -54726.90
AMD Billion
-25394 -19847 -44134 -90624 -54097
Government Revenues 315813.90
AMD Billion
293551 310971 310448 317737 310462
Government Debt 3011.30
AMD Billion
3041 3047 3044 3038 2837
Fiscal Expenditure 370540.80
AMD Million
308701 340199 363781 427808 398895
Military Expenditure 422.90
USD Million
445 435 425 416 364
Government Spending 209752.00
AMD Million
150741 187578 205856 194507 190819
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Industrial Production 15.60
percent
5.54 3.71 2.99 2.77 2.65
Industrial Production Mom -0.30
percent
1.33 1.1 1.04 1.02 1.02
Manufacturing Production 12.80
percent
8.48 7.78 7.79 7.82 7.83
Leading Economic Index 12.60
percent
6.38 4.58 4.57 4.2 3.9
Internet Speed 5182.66
KBps
5125 6156 6087 5236 4893
IP Addresses 297303.00
IP
240803 248158 239163 235107 213593
Mining Production 22.20
percent
17.36 15.64 14.85 14.49 14.19
Ease of Doing Business 47.00
46 47 48 50 46
Corruption Index 33.00
Points
32 31 31 30 29
Corruption Rank 113.00
103 108 113 118 102
Changes In Inventories 24844.60
AMD Million
9557 9422 8441 8957 8856
Competitiveness Index 4.19
Points
4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.12
Competitiveness Rank 73.00
81 81 81 81 81
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Retail Sales YoY 12.70
percent
10.96 9.42 8.24 4.8 5.2
Consumer Credit 511391.36
AMD Million
543449 567375 584515 596364 586899
Consumer Spending 1157142.20
AMD Million
864724 959092 1144642 1068334 1054159
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Construction Output 10.40
percent
-3.11 -4.46 -4.48 0.9 2.5
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 36.00
percent
34 34 34 34 30
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 0.00
percent
4 4 4 4 9
Social Security Rate For Companies 0.00
percent
1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 14.44
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent
-0.14 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14 8.24
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 24.21
mm
29.7 73.54 39.9 32.78 44.96
Temperature -4.14
celsius
-1.94 12.93 19.46 3.81 8.76