Armenia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Armenia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Armenia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 19.00 16.2 16.5 17 16.8 15.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.90 3.7 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.00 6 6 6 5.75 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -137.60 -141 -150 -148 -148 -148 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 42.23 45 45 37 37 31 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 477.80 473 469 464 459 406 [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.50 3.4 3.9 3.6 4.2 4.3 percent [+]
GDP 10.55 12.8 12.8 10.68 10.64 13.8 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1205103.40 1231829 1234173 1234379 1234397 1234398 AMD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 105181.70 252434 363975 105391 184531 353358 AMD Million [+]
GDP per capita 3924.90 3961 3947 3956 3965 4054 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 8174.40 8249 8220 8239 8258 8443 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 108520.60 380110 264101 50662 107862 269801 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 88965.50 114118 149397 37378 84501 140338 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 122295.90 119722 119775 119774 119774 119774 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 32370.20 27939 35222 30005 34074 33866 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 62060.90 60983 61227 61172 61184 61182 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Services 19107.00 16674 16360 16319 16314 16313 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 36282.50 40111 37183 33833 35746 37234 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 6105.40 6966 6125 4878 6438 5784 AMD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 19.00 16.2 16.5 17 16.8 15.6 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 75.50 74.22 73.32 72.97 72.84 72.76 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.90 62.57 60.64 58.82 60.08 60.84 percent [+]
Wages 183643.00 190809 192996 186065 188853 191562 AMD/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 55000.00 65000 65000 55018 55001 75000 AMD/Year [+]
Population 3.00 3 3 3 3 2.99 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 63.00 63 63 63 63 63 [+]
Retirement Age Men 63.00 63 63 63 63 63 [+]
Employed Persons 636.00 740 728 731 731 731 Thousand [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 157254.00 178184 179981 176478 173541 175831 AMD/Monthly [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.90 3.7 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 125.05 127 128 128 128 128 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.35 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.50 2.01 2.95 3.35 3.44 3.01 percent [+]
Producer Prices 100.90 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.50 1.3 1.5 3.2 4.6 3.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 3.00 0.86 0.23 0.2 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Food Inflation 2.60 3.78 3.91 3.9 3.82 3.84 percent [+]
Export Prices 105.40 101 101 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 102.20 102 100 101 100 100 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.00 6 6 6 5.75 6 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 960984.00 991303 982397 978313 976112 963747 AMD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 677519.00 690494 704653 708389 708535 690896 AMD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1184978.00 1225060 1260690 1274738 1279129 1247112 AMD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 11.60 10.61 8.24 7 5.77 4.17 percent [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 2175.50 2155 2145 2121 2095 1885 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -137.60 -141 -150 -148 -148 -148 USD Million [+]
Exports 191.20 177 177 178 178 178 USD Million [+]
Imports 340.50 317 320 323 322 322 USD Million [+]
Current Account -86.20 8.51 -106 -77.43 -29.86 -67.6 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.90 -2.5 -2.5 -2.8 -2.8 -3.2 percent [+]
External Debt 9899.91 10085 10235 10369 10492 11514 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 67.10 9.04 -59.13 63.62 27.88 -2.54 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 1.40 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Tonnes [+]
Remittances 240.20 393 444 252 360 422 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 73.00 93.37 111 86.96 77.58 91.22 USD Million [+]
Terms Of Trade 103.10 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 0.29 0.65 0.62 0.67 0.71 0.46 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 76955.00 63600 41700 42300 68500 48000 Thousand [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.23 45 45 37 37 31 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.80 -3.92 -4.1 -4.01 -3.81 -1.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -19739.90 -48062 -113063 -18257 -25058 -84921 AMD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 319456.80 315106 325478 289314 323077 322442 AMD Billion [+]
Government Debt 2945.90 3005 3063 3121 3179 3703 AMD Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 339196.70 354606 351173 351938 351767 351798 AMD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 422.90 422 411 415 419 419 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 143600.50 169356 170068 169960 169976 169974 AMD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Industrial Production 10.90 8.45 9.26 9.05 9.01 9.01 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.70 -1.52 0.34 0.85 0.99 1.01 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.20 14.59 16.97 16.24 16.52 16.44 percent [+]
Leading Economic Index 2.40 2.8 3.7 3.62 3.8 3.9 percent [+]
Mining Production -6.20 -0.09 0.97 0.4 0.53 0.52 percent [+]
Corruption Index 33.00 32 32 32 32 35 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 113.00 113 118 118 118 108 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 38.00 35 31 34 38 41 [+]
Changes In Inventories 9044.20 10440 11766 8047 10608 10079 AMD Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.07 4.03 4.03 4.06 4.07 4.26 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 79.00 80 80 87 89 92 [+]
Business Confidence 51.00 52.58 52.64 52.66 52.59 52.45 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 42.60 42.26 42.32 42.31 42.32 42.31 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 11.90 12.42 3.5 12.23 12.23 5.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 819878.30 956640 959159 959525 959578 959587 AMD Million [+]
Consumer Credit 464642.71 473735 479453 483640 486578 492680 AMD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Construction Output -5.10 0.9 1.3 -5.55 -5.56 2.5 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 36.00 36 36 36 36 36 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]