Armenia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Armenia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Armenia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 18.00 17.8 17.6 16.3 16 15.6 percent
Inflation Rate 2.40 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.5 4 percent
Interest Rate 6.00 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 6 percent
Balance of Trade -197.20 -156 -141 -115 -117 -80.05 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 42.23 37 37 37 33 31 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 481.50
478 478 478 478 478
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 11.20
percent
3.4 3.7 3.8 3.5 4.3
GDP 10.55
USD Billion
10.25 10.32 13 13.3 13.8
GDP Constant Prices 1112169.30
AMD Million
1238170 1621264 1862006 1005921 2021697
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 436488.00
AMD Million
178790 274960 453075 108863 491932
GDP per capita 3924.90
USD
3974 4024 3947 4054 4073
GDP per capita PPP 8174.40
USD
8128 8102 8077 7519 7291
GDP From Agriculture 53672.40
AMD Million
110365 342333 293252 51782 318402
GDP From Construction 43284.00
AMD Million
91873 125893 172171 40341 186937
GDP From Manufacturing 128874.30
AMD Million
124375 138938 161546 110808 175401
GDP From Mining 40150.50
AMD Million
32920 43081 48669 30729 52843
GDP From Public Administration 46817.70
AMD Million
63116 61877 95233 57120 103401
GDP From Services 15524.80
AMD Million
19432 27677 24849 12719 26980
GDP From Transport 39324.00
AMD Million
36899 41760 44322 33234 48123
GDP From Utilities 5748.80
AMD Million
6209 5993 6104 4617 6628
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 18.00
percent
17.8 17.6 16.3 16 15.6
Unemployed Persons 68.40
Thousand
68.06 67.78 67.66 67.62 67.58
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.90
percent
61.51 61.52 61.52 61.52 61.52
Wages 176306.00
AMD/Month
196000 194000 260000 200000 290000
Minimum Wages 55000.00
AMD/Year
55000 60000 60000 60000 65000
Population 2.98
Million
2.96 2.96 2.95 2.94 2.89
Retirement Age Women 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Men 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Wages In Manufacturing 149967.00
AMD/Monthly
167000 190000 210000 204000 242000
Employed Persons 874.00
Thousand
824 827 828 827 828
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.40
percent
3.9 4.1 4.1 4.5 4
Consumer Price Index CPI 129.00
Index Points
130 126 131 135 142
Core Consumer Prices 100.10
Index Points
107 108 104 105 114
Core Inflation Rate 5.60
percent
6.83 7.12 6.38 4.84 5.93
Producer Prices 98.30
Index Points
105 104 105 106 113
Producer Prices Change 2.80
percent
4.8 4.4 4 3.18 3.7
Inflation Rate Mom -0.30
percent
0.23 0.43 0.28 0.3 0.31
Import Prices 102.90
Index Points
100 101 100 101 100
Food Inflation 1.50
percent
2.2 2 2.1 2.39 2.4
Export Prices 99.90
Index Points
101 101 101 101 101
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.00
percent
5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 6
Money Supply M0 994874.00
AMD Million
947376 949242 949082 948232 935825
Money Supply M1 765461.00
AMD Million
772583 780516 784835 787095 789730
Money Supply M2 1388458.00
AMD Million
1503861 1564541 1619209 1668765 1988052
Deposit Interest Rate 9.01
percent
12.98 10.61 8.24 7 5.51
Foreign Exchange Reserves 2030.05
USD Million
2155 2140 2127 2122 2116
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -197.20
USD Million
-156 -141 -115 -117 -80.05
Exports 210.30
USD Million
185 189 195 198 197
Imports 407.50
USD Million
341 330 323 316 277
Current Account -338.30
USD Million
-41.46 -101 -301 -178 -214
Current Account to GDP -2.90
percent
-2.8 -2.8 -2.7 -3 -3.2
External Debt 10528.67
USD Million
10954 11032 11213 11382 12933
Capital Flows -470.10
USD Million
-20.1 -20.1 -20.1 -20.1 -20.1
Terms Of Trade 97.10
Index Points
101 100 100 100 100
Terrorism Index 2.37
1.35 1.37 1.39 1.34 0.42
Tourist Arrivals 62997.00
Thousand
70200 79700 73400 77600 75900
Remittances 499.80
USD Million
364 430 476 282 453
Foreign Direct Investment 97.80
USD Million
35.95 35.95 35.95 35.95 35.95
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.23
percent
37 37 37 33 31
Government Budget -5.60
percent of GDP
-4.33 -4.24 -4.14 -3.81 -1.9
Government Budget Value -176100.10
AMD Billion
-84661 -84014 -83325 -83709 -83522
Government Revenues 362297.30
AMD Billion
336841 330878 333149 332284 332523
Government Debt 3271.60
AMD Billion
3079 3071 3073 3072 3072
Fiscal Expenditure 538397.40
AMD Million
421502 414893 416288 415994 416045
Military Expenditure 437.45
USD Million
435 425 416 415 364
Government Spending 261802.20
AMD Million
193540 213632 271751 148627 295057
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Industrial Production 8.20
percent
4 3.17 2.86 2.75 2.69
Industrial Production Mom 17.50
percent
1.1 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.02
Manufacturing Production 11.10
percent
8.06 7.92 7.97 7.98 7.98
Leading Economic Index 10.90
percent
8.05 8.06 4.2 8.01 3.9
Internet Speed 5182.66
KBps
4784 4810 4796 4803 4801
IP Addresses 297303.00
IP
248158 239163 235107 235100 213593
Mining Production -12.90
percent
12.05 18.11 16.31 13.97 15.14
Ease of Doing Business 47.00
47 47 47 47 47
Corruption Index 35.00
Points
35 35 35 35 35
Corruption Rank 107.00
111 109 107 105 96
Changes In Inventories 52613.60
AMD Million
15421 12722 8772 10254 11043
Competitiveness Index 4.19
Points
4.13 4.13 4.13 4.13 4.13
Competitiveness Rank 73.00
76 76 76 76 76
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Retail Sales YoY 6.30
percent
17.6 17.78 4.8 17.74 5.2
Consumer Credit 548642.11
AMD Million
578154 597636 611810 622164 649331
Consumer Spending 1256282.40
AMD Million
991526 1178549 1304021 848574 1415858
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Construction Output 23.20
percent
1.15 -1.72 0.9 -3.27 2.5
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 36.00
percent
36 36 36 36 36
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 4 9
Social Security Rate For Companies 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent
-2.04 -2.04 -2.04 1.21 1.2
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 24.21
mm
73.54 39.9 32.78 29.75 44.96
Temperature -4.14
celsius
12.93 19.46 3.81 -1.94 8.76