Armenia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Armenia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Armenia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 17.40 18.2 17.7 18.4 17.7 15.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.20 2 4.7 3.6 4 4.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.00 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -111.60 -123 -128 -127 -127 -127 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 42.23 45 45 45 41.46 31 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 481.29 488 493 507 502 580 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate -1.00 3.4 3.2 3.9 2.8 4.3 percent [+]
GDP 10.53 12.8 12.8 12.8 10.35 13.8 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1514706.80 1321550 1319622 1319419 1319398 1319395 AMD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 367242.00 236728 234805 235025 235000 235002 AMD Million [+]
GDP per capita 3796.50 3811 3839 3867 3880 4040 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 7907.00 7937 7995 8053 8081 8414 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 263839.10 215567 215393 215383 215382 215382 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 152661.90 106470 118136 152523 51851 151694 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 135858.20 135764 129253 135672 129343 135171 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 39377.50 33013 28547 35064 31446 34416 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 74164.50 68753 69109 77997 71276 94475 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Services 19591.40 14336 22410 20071 12193 19660 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 36693.40 27412 36189 35977 30264 32527 AMD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 5671.60 5258 6155 5571 4625 5316 AMD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 17.40 18.2 17.7 18.4 17.7 15.6 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 80.70 80.33 80.2 80.16 80.14 80.13 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.70 60.33 62.52 60.59 58.65 60.74 percent [+]
Wages 183643.00 187285 190809 192996 186065 191562 AMD/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 55000.00 65000 65000 65000 55001 75000 AMD/Year [+]
Population 3.00 3 3 3 3 2.99 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 63.00 63 63 63 63 63 [+]
Retirement Age Men 63.00 63 63 63 63 63 [+]
Employed Persons 767.00 761 766 765 765 765 Thousand [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 172837.00 171097 173510 177280 176629 175219 AMD/Monthly [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.20 2 4.7 3.6 4 4.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 126.00 127 127 127 127 127 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.38 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -0.30 0.35 0.65 0.39 0.03 -0.04 percent [+]
Producer Prices 99.40 100 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.00 2.9 1.3 1.5 3.2 3.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.00 0.35 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 percent [+]
Food Inflation 5.90 3.36 4.26 4.1 4.16 4.09 percent [+]
Export Prices 97.90 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 100.10 101 101 100 101 101 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.00 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 6 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 950635.00 973121 967396 975277 970641 974100 AMD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 644197.00 664343 680022 687647 691557 695347 AMD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1112672.00 1161728 1187097 1199651 1205886 1212050 AMD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 11.60 12.98 10.61 8.24 7 4.17 percent [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1929.90 1938 1924 1922 1921 1921 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -111.60 -123 -128 -127 -127 -127 USD Million [+]
Exports 165.30 160 158 158 158 158 USD Million [+]
Imports 276.90 288 287 287 287 287 USD Million [+]
Current Account -184.00 -59.74 -23.88 -161 -136 -121 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.8 -3.2 percent [+]
External Debt 9951.82 10406 10540 10717 10907 12581 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -142.20 -75.85 -49.2 -138 -153 -125 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 1.40 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Tonnes [+]
Remittances 442.00 317 373 431 215 403 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 133.90 62.61 92.19 110 82.77 89.22 USD Million [+]
Terms Of Trade 97.80 99.99 99.99 99.93 99.94 99.94 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 0.29 0.68 0.65 0.62 0.67 0.46 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 37908.00 43092 59258 39042 33811 41335 Thousand [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.23 45 45 45 41.46 31 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.80 -4.1 -3.92 -4.1 -4.01 -1.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -132204.50 -58925 -63407 -120429 -44613 -97194 AMD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 320641.40 303946 303628 316624 270717 308849 AMD Billion [+]
Government Debt 2872.20 3028 3098 3168 3236 3910 AMD Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 452845.90 371514 381333 457975 326848 469052 AMD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 422.90 433 422 411 415 419 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 197450.00 194543 188717 206085 169103 232231 AMD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production 4.30 7.11 7.8 7.86 7.89 7.89 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 11.70 2.33 0.96 0.83 0.89 0.97 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 26.60 15.41 18.64 18.14 17.74 17.99 percent [+]
Leading Economic Index 3.40 1.9 2.8 3.7 2.16 3.9 percent [+]
Mining Production 19.30 10.53 10.7 10.87 10.82 10.83 percent [+]
Corruption Index 33.00 32 32 32 32 35 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 113.00 108 113 118 118 108 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 38.00 38 35 31 34 41 [+]
Changes In Inventories 5639.80 7912 6124 8305 7496 7831 AMD Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.07 4.03 4.03 4.03 4.07 4.26 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 79.00 80 80 80 89 92 [+]
Business Confidence 51.00 52.54 52.58 52.64 52.66 52.45 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 42.60 42.25 42.26 42.32 42.31 42.31 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 14.20 -0.3 14.62 3.5 14.65 5.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1121071.70 1029688 1027422 1027035 1026970 1026956 AMD Million [+]
Consumer Credit 447927.88 453605 457019 459771 461719 465757 AMD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output -13.00 -2.7 0.9 1.3 -5.56 2.5 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 36.00 36 36 36 36 36 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]