IMF Trims 2025 Vietnam Growth Forecast to 6.5% on U.S. Tariff Hit

Vietnam’s GDP advanced 8.46% year-on-year in Q4 2025, accelerating from a marginally revised 8.25% expansion in Q3 and marking the fastest pace since Q4 2007. Growth was broad-based, with all sectors posting solid gains, including industry and construction (9.73%), services (8.82%), and agriculture (3.70%). On the expenditure side, trade remained resilient despite a 20% US tariff imposed in early August, with Q4 goods exports and imports surging 19.34% and 19.40%, respectively. Meanwhile, final consumption grew 7.15% yoy, while fixed investment climbed 8.92%. For the full year 2025, the country’s GDP grew by 8.02%, the strongest performance since 2011. Last week, a senior State Bank of Vietnam official said that tariffs and monetary policy shifts in other countries would make it harder for Vietnam’s central bank to calibrate its policy settings and achieve an economic growth target of more than 10% next year. The government has said Vietnam plans to target 10% growth next year.

Vietnam’s GDP expanded 8.23% yoy in Q3 2025, quickening from an upwardly revised 8.19% rise in the previous period and marking the fastest pace since Q3 2022. Growth was broad-based, with all sectors advancing further, including industry and construction (9.46% vs 8.82% in Q2), services (8.56% vs 9.06%), and agriculture (3.74% vs 3.95%). Meanwhile, trade remained resilient despite a 20% U.S. tariff imposed in early August, with Q3 goods exports and imports each surging 18.4% and 20.2%. On the expenditure side, final consumption gained 7.79% yoy, while fixed investment rose 8.97%. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh recently projected exports to climb over 12% this year, citing optimism around ongoing U.S. trade negotiations. However, a UN report warned the tariffs could slash up to 20% of Vietnam’s U.S.-bound exports, potentially making it the hardest-hit Southeast Asian economy. For the first nine months of the year, the country's GDP grew by 7.85%, the strongest performance since 2011.

Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to slow to 6.5% this year, down from 7.09% in 2024, due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. The multilateral lender warned that “downside risks are high,” citing the unwinding of temporary government stimulus and potential fallout from escalating global trade tensions or tighter financial conditions. Such developments, the IMF noted, could further dampen exports and investment. The outlook suggests continued pressure on Vietnam’s export-driven economy amid shifting global trade dynamics and policy headwinds. In Q2, Vietnam’s GDP grew robustly by 7.96% yoy, accelerating from a 6.93% rise in Q1 and marking the fastest pace since Q3 2022, with all major sectors like services, industry, and agriculture all posting stronger expansion.