Vietnam | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Vietnam including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Vietnam economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 7.46 6.6 6.1 5.9 6.8 6.3 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 2.09 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.40 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 3.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.25 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 5.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1100.00 -1150 -600 -400 168 -1400 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 62.40 57 58 58 66.17 62 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 22710.00 22500 22300 22000 21818 19318 [+]
Stock Market 831.93 800 792 784 775 687 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 5.32 5.41 5.47 5.52 5.57 6.16 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 7.46 6.6 6.1 5.9 6.8 6.3 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.46 6.6 6.1 5.9 6.8 6.3 percent [+]
GDP 202.62 213 229 229 229 260 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2204935.00 3247000 626400 1450000 2204279 3880000 VND Billion [+]
Gross National Product 4294560.00 4540946 4711858 4711858 4656425 4922178 VND Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1066160.30 1489888 1758068 1758068 1111891 2284610 VND Billion [+]
GDP per capita 1770.30 1848 1867 1886 1905 2077 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 5955.30 6224 6291 6358 6425 7034 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 333053.00 485000 67500 217000 333018 501000 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 126372.00 198200 35800 74000 126165 226000 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 394036.00 511000 119400 240000 386653 547000 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 134833.00 232000 39500 98000 133530 243000 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 60834.00 85400 19300 42000 60826 95600 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Services 857080.00 1300000 260000 520000 853425 1820000 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 65005.00 88300 20000 40000 65138 91500 VND Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 13681.00 18300 4200 9000 13684 20300 VND Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.09 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 53.36 53.8 53.6 53.9 53.12 55.6 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 1.14 1.27 1.3 1.3 1.19 1.5 Million [+]
Minimum Wages 3750.00 3750 4050 4050 4050 4700 VND Thousand/Month [+]
Population 92.70 93.68 93.93 94.17 94.41 96.5 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 76.60 76.9 76.9 77 76.95 77.8 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 5790475.00 5812000 5821000 5829000 5665485 5847000 VND/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 4011373.00 4028000 4039000 4039000 4013326 4059000 VND/Month [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 62 [+]
Retirement Age Women 55.00 55 55 55 55 58 [+]
Wages 5507.00 5500 5900 5600 5100 6900 VND Thousand/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 12031200.00 13100000 13100000 13100000 10890179 15500000 VND/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 5428.00 5460 5900 5500 5510 6750 VND Thousand/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 7.29 7.7 7.4 8.1 7.25 8.5 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.40 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 3.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 106.83 109 110 111 106 123 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.31 1.5 2 2.6 2.4 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 147.41 158 165 165 133 176 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 109.00 105 108 108 103 114 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 105.40 103 104 104 102 108 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 87.76 93 95 95 92.86 105 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.33 1.5 1.7 2.9 2.6 1.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.59 0.4 0.55 0.2 0.54 0.2 percent [+]
Producer Prices 99.30 109 111 114 100 132 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.25 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 5.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 3.27 4.3 4.5 4.7 6.07 5.2 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 851441.00 961946 993950 993950 1042757 1262998 VND Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 1713832.00 3410000 4010000 4010000 3565657 60000000 VND Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 7125801.00 7400000 8290000 8290000 8725000 11100000 VND Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 28615.88 41436 44501 44501 24591 48901 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 5.04 4.5 4.7 4.7 6.25 5.2 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 1100.00 -1150 -600 -400 168 -1400 USD Million [+]
Exports 19340.00 18300 19500 19100 18939 24300 USD Million [+]
Imports 18240.00 19450 20100 19500 17504 25700 USD Million [+]
Current Account -1169.00 2350 2100 1700 -677 2730 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.70 -0.2 0.3 0.3 1.32 1 percent [+]
External Debt 77798.00 28000 30000 30000 80891 38000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 103.42 102 101 101 101 106 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 8921.00 5200 3400 3400 4227 8500 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 2740.00 -254 -580 -580 1284 700 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 279.00 277 311 311 276 360 BBL/D/1K [+]
Tourist Arrivals 975.90 1080 1150 1200 900 1570 Thousand [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0 0 0 0.02 0.14 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 62.40 57 58 58 66.17 62 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.20 -5.9 -6.1 -6.1 -3.69 -5.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -186932.00 -310000 -290000 -290000 -163470 -230000 VND Billion [+]
Government Spending 293105.82 315512 303971 303971 330990 370584 VND Billion [+]
Government Revenues 1101377.00 1170000 1300000 1300000 1250824 1570000 VND Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1288309.00 1480000 1590000 1590000 1459480 1800000 VND Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 5004.60 5166 4977 4977 5200 5513 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Manufacturing PMI 53.30 53.4 52.8 52.7 52 53 [+]
Industrial Production 13.20 8.6 7.5 8.4 8.76 6.9 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 12.40 10.6 9.7 8.7 9.9 7.7 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 130578.82 131775 154053 154053 131851 128028 VND Billion [+]
Car Registrations 19257.00 31500 37400 37400 17747 55461 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.36 4.4 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.7 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 55.00 65 64 64 64 70 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 82.00 73 88 88 88 60 [+]
Electricity Production 16500.00 17700 18200 19100 16689 25500 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 33.00 32 32 32 32 37 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 113.00 111 109 109 109 109 [+]
Mining Production -5.00 1.5 0.9 1.2 -2.65 3.3 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Retail Sales Yoy 12.10 8.4 9.2 10.3 18.37 7.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 3086297.83 3285298 3562272 3562272 3417746 3734862 VND Billion [+]
Consumer Confidence 117.00 109 111 111 113 110 [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.80 0.72 0.7 0.69 0.68 0.66 USD/Liter [+]
Retail Sales Mom 2.00 1.7 0.5 0.5 2.23 6.9 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35.56 35 35 35.92 36.84 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 26.00 26 26 26 23.88 26 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.00 18 18 18 16.82 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 7.05 8 percent [+]