Vietnam - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Vietnam including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Vietnam economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 7.38 5.9 6.8 6.4 6.8 6.3 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.01 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.6 percent
Inflation Rate 2.75 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.4 percent
Interest Rate 6.25 6.5 6.5 6 6 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade 1160.00 -400 465 -1600 738 -1400 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 61.50 58 58 58 60 62 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 22785.00
22815 22815 22815 22815 22815
Stock Market 1040.54
points
1148 1106 1065 1025 881
Government Bond 10y 4.54
percent
4.33 4.5 4.67 4.84 5.62
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 7.38
percent
5.9 6.8 6.4 6.8 6.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.38
percent
6.3 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.3
GDP 205.28
USD Billion
229 229 229 247 260
GDP Constant Prices 637244.00
VND Billion
1411778 2279903 3403914 674841 3853554
Gross National Product 4294560.00
VND Billion
4429839 4440575 4812211 4547939 5447880
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1066160.30
VND Billion
1099744 1102410 1194671 1129064 1352482
GDP per capita 1770.30
USD
1810 2010 1850 2090 2168
GDP per capita PPP 5955.30
USD
6089 6156 6224 7031 7292
GDP From Agriculture 70244.00
VND Billion
221602 344377 503320 74388 569806
GDP From Construction 32385.00
VND Billion
76030 130669 214538 34296 242877
GDP From Manufacturing 122380.00
VND Billion
251656 407433 591155 129600 669244
GDP From Mining 38814.00
VND Billion
91215 139417 223745 41104 253301
GDP From Public Administration 18700.00
VND Billion
40907 62902 93975 19803 106388
GDP From Services 260157.00
VND Billion
538783 886221 1320668 275506 1495122
GDP From Transport 20093.00
VND Billion
41439 67215 99011 21278 112090
GDP From Utilities 4099.00
VND Billion
8927 14146 20171 4341 22835
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.01
percent
2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.6
Employed Persons 54.10
Million
53.9 54.44 54.2 54.71 55.6
Unemployed Persons 1.11
Million
1.3 1.15 1.3 1.19 1.5
Minimum Wages 3980.00
VND Thousand/Month
3980 3980 3980 4210 4450
Population 92.70
Million
93.18 93.42 93.67 93.91 97.46
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 62 60 62
Retirement Age Women 55.00
55 55 58 55 58
Wages 5066.00
VND Thousand/Month
5600 5100 5460 6200 6900
Wages High Skilled 11409900.00
VND/Month
12800000 12800000 12800000 13200000 13200000
Wages In Manufacturing 4999.00
VND Thousand/Month
5500 5510 5820 6100 6750
Wages Low Skilled 4851300.00
VND/Month
4901300 4901300 4901300 4901300 5207510
Youth Unemployment Rate 7.30
percent
8.1 7.64 7.9 7.6 8.5
Labor Force Participation Rate 76.90
percent
77 77.69 77.2 78.22 77.8
Living Wage Family 7475300.00
VND/Month
7500000 7500000 7500000 5835000 7800000
Living Wage Individual 4131400.00
VND/Month
4039000 4131400 4039000 4131400 4059000
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.75
percent
3.2 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 108.77
Index Points
107 109 110 112 118
Core Inflation Rate 1.33
percent
2.6 2.4 2.3 1.46 1.8
GDP Deflator 147.41
Index Points
165 135 165 133 176
Export Prices 109.00
Index Points
108 105 108 105 114
Import Prices 105.40
Index Points
104 104 104 104 108
Producer Prices 97.41
Index Points
114 110 119 109 132
Inflation Rate Mom -0.27
percent
0.2 0.01 0.2 0 0.2
CPI Transportation 91.77
Index Points
87.89 89.56 91.66 93.6 98.19
Food Inflation 4.50
percent
2.9 2.6 2.3 3 4
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.25
percent
6.5 6.5 6 6 5.5
Interbank Rate 2.50
percent
4.97 4.97 4.47 4.47 3.97
Money Supply M0 851441.00
VND Billion
993950 927325 960887 987349 1334522
Money Supply M1 1713832.00
VND Billion
4010000 3391826 4010000 3981842 60000000
Money Supply M2 7125801.00
VND Billion
8290000 7776911 8290000 8293760 11100000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 28615.88
USD Million
44501 28562 44501 27285 48901
Deposit Interest Rate 5.04
percent
4.7 5.25 4.7 5.81 5.2
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 1160.00
USD Million
-400 465 -1600 738 -1400
Exports 18367.00
USD Million
19100 17976 20200 18506 24300
Imports 17204.00
USD Million
19500 17511 21800 17768 25700
Current Account 3018.00
USD Million
1700 2184 1800 1622 2730
Current Account to GDP 4.70
percent
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1
External Debt 91207.60
USD Million
30000 93970 30000 99546 38000
Terms of Trade 103.42
Index Points
104 101 104 101 106
Foreign Direct Investment 6715.40
USD Million
3400 4613 6100 4274 8500
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0.01 0.13
Tourist Arrivals 1341.90
Thousand
1200 1400 1240 1400 1570
Capital Flows 10710.00
USD Million
-580 1773 1280 1412 700
Crude Oil Production 254.00
BBL/D/1K
311 265 265 265 360
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 61.50
percent
58 58 58 60 62
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP
-6.1 -3.43 -6.1 -3.34 -5.3
Government Budget Value -186932.00
VND Billion
-290000 -198883 -290000 -200737 -230000
Government Spending 293105.82
VND Billion
302339 303071 328436 310399 371820
Government Revenues 1101377.00
VND Billion
1300000 1146659 1300000 1200006 1570000
Fiscal Expenditure 1288309.00
VND Billion
1590000 1345542 1590000 1400743 1800000
Military Expenditure 4961.80
USD Million
4977 5171 4977 5355 5513
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Manufacturing PMI 52.70
52.7 52 52 51.2 53
Industrial Production 9.40
percent
8.4 11.48 8.1 11.54 6.9
Manufacturing Production 12.30
percent
8.7 13.16 8.9 12.08 7.7
Changes in Inventories 130578.82
VND Billion
154053 131403 131775 131801 124774
Car Registrations 20557.00
31400 32700 33980 16326 45461
Internet Speed 9503.83
KBps
14979 15766 16439 17077 18056
IP Addresses 8616202.00
IP
9894400 9952484 9970716 9958053 8935180
Mining Production -5.00
percent
1.2 -2.14 2.1 -1.31 3.3
Competitiveness Index 4.36
Points
4.26 4.26 4.54 4.29 4.7
Competitiveness Rank 55.00
64 64 67 66 70
Ease of Doing Business 68.00
71 67 69 63 60
Electricity Production 17000.00
Gigawatt-hour
19100 15821 20300 15850 25500
Corruption Index 35.00
Points
34 34 33 35 37
Corruption Rank 107.00
107 107 110 105 109
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Retail Sales Yoy 9.50
percent
10.3 10.97 9.3 11 7.9
Consumer Spending 3086297.83
VND Billion
3183516 3191232 3458309 3268389 3915134
Retail Sales Mom 2.00
percent
0.5 2.14 3.1 2.16 6.9
Gasoline Prices 0.83
USD/Liter
0.78 0.73 0.69 0.65 0.45
Consumer Confidence 117.00
Index Points
111 113 103 112 110
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 36
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 26.00
percent
26 26 26 26 26
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.00
percent
18 17.7 18 17.7 18
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
8 7.79 8 7.79 8
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 93.32
mm
156 267 149 33.91 155
Temperature 22.08
celsius
26.18 26.48 21.9 20.47 24.28