Vietnam - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Vietnam including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Vietnam economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 7.46 6.1 5.9 6.8 6.4 6.3 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.02 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.6 percent
Inflation Rate 2.65 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.4 percent
Interest Rate 6.25 6.5 6.5 6.5 6 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade 181.00 -600 -400 -258 -1600 -1400 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 62.40 58 58 63.9 58 62 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 22695.00
22709 22709 22709 22709 22709
Stock Market 1059.73
points
1036 1011 985 961 785
Government Bond 10y 4.36
percent
4.52 4.65 4.79 4.92 5.52
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 7.46
percent
6.1 5.9 6.8 6.4 6.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.65
percent
6.1 6.3 6.8 6.5 6.3
GDP 205.28
USD Billion
229 229 229 229 260
GDP Constant Prices 3262548.00
VND Billion
626400 1450000 1651422 3440000 3880000
Gross National Product 4294560.00
VND Billion
4711858 4711858 4447901 4540946 4922178
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1066160.30
VND Billion
1758068 1758068 1097385 1758068 2284610
GDP per capita 1770.30
USD
1790 1810 1830 1850 2091
GDP per capita PPP 5955.30
USD
6022 6089 6156 6224 7031
GDP From Agriculture 482417.00
VND Billion
67500 217000 264650 491000 501000
GDP From Construction 205628.00
VND Billion
35800 74000 124629 212000 226000
GDP From Manufacturing 566604.00
VND Billion
119400 240000 376610 525000 547000
GDP From Mining 214453.00
VND Billion
39500 98000 126443 238000 243000
GDP From Public Administration 90072.00
VND Billion
19300 42000 60298 90200 95600
GDP From Services 1265820.00
VND Billion
260000 520000 842673 1440000 1820000
GDP From Transport 94899.00
VND Billion
20000 40000 64507 89100 91500
GDP From Utilities 19333.00
VND Billion
4200 9000 13528 18900 20300
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.02
percent
2.3 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.6
Employed Persons 53.76
Million
53.6 53.9 54.49 54.2 55.6
Unemployed Persons 1.11
Million
1.3 1.3 1.15 1.3 1.5
Minimum Wages 3980.00
VND Thousand/Month
3980 3980 3980 3980 4450
Population 92.70
Million
92.9 93.16 93.42 93.68 96.5
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 62 62
Retirement Age Women 55.00
55 55 55 58 58
Wages 5364.00
VND Thousand/Month
5900 5600 5100 5460 6900
Wages High Skilled 11409900.00
VND/Month
13100000 13100000 11355957 13800000 15500000
Wages In Manufacturing 5463.00
VND Thousand/Month
5900 5500 5510 5820 6750
Wages Low Skilled 4851300.00
VND/Month
5642791 5543325 5443858 5344392 5833868
Youth Unemployment Rate 7.80
percent
7.4 8.1 7.64 7.9 8.5
Labor Force Participation Rate 76.70
percent
76.9 77 77.69 77.2 77.8
Living Wage Family 7475300.00
VND/Month
5821000 5829000 7475300 5829000 5847000
Living Wage Individual 4131400.00
VND/Month
4039000 4039000 4131400 4039000 4059000
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.65
percent
2.9 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 108.18
Index Points
110 111 108 114 123
Core Inflation Rate 1.18
percent
2 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.8
GDP Deflator 147.41
Index Points
165 165 139 165 176
Export Prices 109.00
Index Points
108 108 105 108 114
Import Prices 105.40
Index Points
104 104 104 104 108
Producer Prices 103.47
Index Points
111 114 110 119 132
Inflation Rate Mom 0.51
percent
0.51 0.2 0.65 0.2 0.2
CPI Transportation 90.69
Index Points
95 95 93.72 99 105
Food Inflation 3.11
percent
2.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 4
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.25
percent
6.5 6.5 6.5 6 5.5
Interbank Rate 4.43
percent
4.5 4.7 5.53 4.6 5.2
Money Supply M0 851441.00
VND Billion
993950 993950 928338 961946 1262998
Money Supply M1 1713832.00
VND Billion
4010000 4010000 3480442 4010000 60000000
Money Supply M2 7125801.00
VND Billion
8290000 8290000 7782686 8290000 11100000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 28615.88
USD Million
44501 44501 28562 44501 48901
Deposit Interest Rate 5.04
percent
4.7 4.7 5.25 4.7 5.2
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 181.00
USD Million
-600 -400 -258 -1600 -1400
Exports 20220.00
USD Million
19500 19100 19862 20200 24300
Imports 20040.00
USD Million
20100 19500 19695 21800 25700
Current Account 4300.00
USD Million
2100 1700 2205 1800 2730
Current Account to GDP 4.70
percent
0.3 0.3 1.18 0.3 1
External Debt 91207.60
USD Million
30000 30000 94251 30000 38000
Terms of Trade 103.42
Index Points
101 101 101 104 106
Foreign Direct Investment 2722.00
USD Million
3400 3400 3782 6100 8500
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0 0.09
Tourist Arrivals 1430.20
Thousand
1150 1200 1300 1240 1570
Capital Flows 3000.00
USD Million
-580 -580 1773 1280 700
Crude Oil Production 265.00
BBL/D/1K
311 311 264 264 360
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 62.40
percent
58 58 63.9 58 62
Government Budget -4.20
percent of GDP
-6.1 -6.1 -3.92 -6.1 -5.3
Government Budget Value -186932.00
VND Billion
-290000 -290000 -175840 -290000 -230000
Government Spending 293105.82
VND Billion
303971 303971 307719 315512 370584
Government Revenues 1101377.00
VND Billion
1300000 1300000 1148568 1300000 1570000
Fiscal Expenditure 1288309.00
VND Billion
1590000 1590000 1348850 1590000 1800000
Military Expenditure 5004.60
USD Million
4977 4977 5054 4977 5513
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Manufacturing PMI 53.40
52.8 52.7 52 52 53
Industrial Production 20.90
percent
7.5 8.4 11.75 8.1 6.9
Manufacturing Production 23.80
percent
9.7 8.7 17.55 8.9 7.7
Changes in Inventories 130578.82
VND Billion
154053 154053 131403 131775 128028
Car Registrations 25381.00
27400 31400 32700 33980 45461
Internet Speed 9503.83
KBps
13984 14979 15766 16439 18785
IP Addresses 8616202.00
IP
9790567 9894400 9952484 9970716 9395186
Mining Production 10.50
percent
0.9 1.2 -2.02 2.1 3.3
Competitiveness Index 4.36
Points
4.26 4.26 4.26 4.54 4.7
Competitiveness Rank 55.00
64 64 64 67 70
Ease of Doing Business 68.00
74 71 67 69 60
Electricity Production 15800.00
Gigawatt-hour
18200 19100 15688 20300 25500
Corruption Index 33.00
Points
31 32 32 33 37
Corruption Rank 113.00
111 110 110 110 109
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Retail Sales Yoy 9.50
percent
9.2 10.3 16.86 9.3 7.9
Consumer Spending 3086297.83
VND Billion
3562272 3562272 3227046 3285298 3734862
Retail Sales Mom 8.30
percent
0.5 0.5 2.14 3.1 6.9
Gasoline Prices 0.82
USD/Liter
0.8 0.8 0.79 0.78 0.7
Consumer Confidence 117.00
Index Points
111 111 113 103 110
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 36
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 26.00
percent
26 26 26 26 26
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.00
percent
18 18 17.7 18 18
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
8 8 7.79 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 93.32
mm
33.84 156 267 149 155
Temperature 22.08
celsius
20.43 26.18 26.48 21.9 24.28