IMF Predicts Vietnam’s GDP Growth to Slow to 5.4% Amid High Tariffs

Vietnam’s GDP expanded 7.83% year-on-year in Q1 2026, slowing from an 8.46% growth rate in Q4 2025, as rising oil imports boosted inflation. Growth was broad-based, with all sectors posting solid gains, including industry and construction (8.92%), services (8.18%), and agriculture (3.58%). On the expenditure side, exports rose 19.85%, while imports surged 24.27%, driven by the Middle East conflict, which pushed up oil prices. Final consumption climbed 8.45% yoy, while fixed investment grew 7.18%. Last year, the country’s GDP advanced by 8.02%, the strongest performance since 2011. Vietnam is targeting annual economic growth of at least 10% through 2030, backed by investments in hundreds of new large-scale projects launched last year, worth an estimated USD 200 billion. Earlier, Kim Eng Tan, managing director for Asia sovereign ratings at S&P Global Ratings, said that Vietnam is expected to grow steadily over the next three years, with an annual growth forecast of 6.7%.

Vietnam’s GDP advanced 8.46% year-on-year in Q4 2025, accelerating from a marginally revised 8.25% expansion in Q3 and marking the fastest pace since Q4 2007. Growth was broad-based, with all sectors posting solid gains, including industry and construction (9.73%), services (8.82%), and agriculture (3.70%). On the expenditure side, trade remained resilient despite a 20% US tariff imposed in early August, with Q4 goods exports and imports surging 19.34% and 19.40%, respectively. Meanwhile, final consumption grew 7.15% yoy, while fixed investment climbed 8.92%. For the full year 2025, the country’s GDP grew by 8.02%, the strongest performance since 2011. Last week, a senior State Bank of Vietnam official said that tariffs and monetary policy shifts in other countries would make it harder for Vietnam’s central bank to calibrate its policy settings and achieve an economic growth target of more than 10% next year. The government has said Vietnam plans to target 10% growth next year.

Vietnam’s GDP expanded 8.23% yoy in Q3 2025, quickening from an upwardly revised 8.19% rise in the previous period and marking the fastest pace since Q3 2022. Growth was broad-based, with all sectors advancing further, including industry and construction (9.46% vs 8.82% in Q2), services (8.56% vs 9.06%), and agriculture (3.74% vs 3.95%). Meanwhile, trade remained resilient despite a 20% U.S. tariff imposed in early August, with Q3 goods exports and imports each surging 18.4% and 20.2%. On the expenditure side, final consumption gained 7.79% yoy, while fixed investment rose 8.97%. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh recently projected exports to climb over 12% this year, citing optimism around ongoing U.S. trade negotiations. However, a UN report warned the tariffs could slash up to 20% of Vietnam’s U.S.-bound exports, potentially making it the hardest-hit Southeast Asian economy. For the first nine months of the year, the country's GDP grew by 7.85%, the strongest performance since 2011.