Uzbekistan Holds Key Rate at 14%

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan left its benchmark interest rate at 14% in November 2026, maintaining a tight monetary stance amid persistent inflationary pressures. Annual inflation accelerated to 6.4% in September, compared with 6.2% a month earlier, while core inflation stood at 5.5%. Policymakers remain concerned about robust domestic consumption and uncertainty surrounding international food and energy prices, which could add to price pressures. Despite some moderation in inflation expectations, the overall outlook continues to warrant caution. The Central Bank projects inflation at approximately 7% by the end of 2026, with a further slowdown towards its 5% objective by the end of 2027. At the same time, economic growth remained strong, with GDP increasing 8.3% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2026. The decision to maintain borrowing costs unchanged reflects the Bank's continued focus on bringing inflation down while preserving economic stability.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its key policy rate unchanged at 14% at its September 2026 meeting, maintaining tight monetary conditions as inflation continued to decline but remained above the 5% target. Annual inflation slowed to 6.2% in August, while core inflation was within 5.5%. Despite easing inflation expectations, the central bank noted that persistent price pressures and the continued liberalization of regulated prices could generate secondary inflationary effects. Domestic demand remained active, supported by retail trade, services and investment, although some components of aggregate demand showed signs of stabilization and credit growth gradually became more moderate. The central bank reiterated that tight monetary conditions were necessary to contain inflation risks and inflation expectations and ensure inflation decline toward the 5% target by the end of 2027.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan left its key policy rate unchanged at 14% during its July 2026 meeting, maintaining a tight monetary stance to bring inflation to its 5% target amid strong domestic demand and persistent price pressures. Annual inflation accelerated to 6.4% in June, driven mainly by higher regulated energy tariffs and the liberalization of coal prices, while core inflation held steady at 5.7%. The central bank kept its 2026 inflation forecast unchanged at 6.5%, citing strong domestic demand, second-round effects of tariff adjustments, and external uncertainties. Meanwhile, the economy remained resilient, with GDP expanding 8.5% in the first half of the year, supported by robust consumer activity, investment demand, and foreign direct investment inflows. The central bank reiterated that current monetary conditions remain sufficiently tight to curb inflationary pressures and inflation expectations while continuing to shape monetary conditions to ensure price stability.