Uzbekistan Keeps Key Rate at 14%

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its key policy rate unchanged at 14% at its September 2026 meeting, maintaining tight monetary conditions as inflation continued to decline but remained above the 5% target. Annual inflation slowed to 6.2% in August, while core inflation was within 5.5%. Despite easing inflation expectations, the central bank noted that persistent price pressures and the continued liberalization of regulated prices could generate secondary inflationary effects. Domestic demand remained active, supported by retail trade, services and investment, although some components of aggregate demand showed signs of stabilization and credit growth gradually became more moderate. The central bank reiterated that tight monetary conditions were necessary to contain inflation risks and inflation expectations and ensure inflation decline toward the 5% target by the end of 2027.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan left its key policy rate unchanged at 14% during its July 2026 meeting, maintaining a tight monetary stance to bring inflation to its 5% target amid strong domestic demand and persistent price pressures. Annual inflation accelerated to 6.4% in June, driven mainly by higher regulated energy tariffs and the liberalization of coal prices, while core inflation held steady at 5.7%. The central bank kept its 2026 inflation forecast unchanged at 6.5%, citing strong domestic demand, second-round effects of tariff adjustments, and external uncertainties. Meanwhile, the economy remained resilient, with GDP expanding 8.5% in the first half of the year, supported by robust consumer activity, investment demand, and foreign direct investment inflows. The central bank reiterated that current monetary conditions remain sufficiently tight to curb inflationary pressures and inflation expectations while continuing to shape monetary conditions to ensure price stability.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its key policy rate unchanged at 14% at its June 2026 meeting, emphasizing the need to maintain tight monetary conditions. Annual inflation eased to 5.5% in May, largely reflecting the fading impact of the energy tariff increases introduced a year earlier. However, the latest tariff increases and rising transportation and production costs are expected to create short-term price pressures. Inflation is projected to reach around 6.5% by year-end, while longer-term expectations have improved. Economic activity remains strong, supported by robust growth in retail trade, services, tourism, and investment, as well as an acceleration in government spending in recent months. The economy is expected to expand by 7.0%–7.5% in 2026. Looking ahead, policy decisions will remain focused on bringing inflation back to its 5% target, safeguarding macroeconomic stability, and preserving the purchasing power of households.