Uzbekistan Keeps Key Rate Unchanged at 14%

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its key policy rate unchanged at 14% at its June 2026 meeting, emphasizing the need to maintain tight monetary conditions. Annual inflation eased to 5.5% in May, largely reflecting the fading impact of the energy tariff increases introduced a year earlier. However, the latest tariff increases and rising transportation and production costs are expected to create short-term price pressures. Inflation is projected to reach around 6.5% by year-end, while longer-term expectations have improved. Economic activity remains strong, supported by robust growth in retail trade, services, tourism, and investment, as well as an acceleration in government spending in recent months. The economy is expected to expand by 7.0%–7.5% in 2026. Looking ahead, policy decisions will remain focused on bringing inflation back to its 5% target, safeguarding macroeconomic stability, and preserving the purchasing power of households.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its key policy rate unchanged at 14% at its April 2026 meeting, maintaining a tight monetary stance amid persistent inflation pressures. While headline inflation eased to 7.1% in March, the pace of disinflation slowed due to persistent price pressures and external factors. Inflation is expected to moderate to 6.5% by year-end, partly due to base effects. However, policymakers cited rising external risks from geopolitical tensions, including higher oil and food prices and logistics costs, which could feed into import inflation. Meanwhile, economic activity remained strong, with GDP growing 8.7% in Q1 2026, driven by services, construction, and trade. Investment inflows, including FDI, continue to support growth, prompting a revision of the 2026 forecast to 7–7.5%. The central bank signaled it will maintain tight conditions to anchor expectations and stands ready to tighten further if inflation risks intensify.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its key interest rate unchanged at 14% during its March 2026 meeting, signaling a cautious stance amid persistent inflation. Policymakers noted that the recent decline in headline inflation has slowed, with the rate holding broadly steady at 7.3% in February due to rising food prices, while core inflation has begun to trend upward, reaching 6.3%. Economic activity also remained robust, supported by strong aggregate demand. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions pose upside risks to inflation, as disruptions to global supply chains could drive up energy and food prices, while shifts in logistics routes may increase transportation costs. Thus, the central bank deemed it necessary to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to ensure price stability and anchor inflation expectations. The Board also signaled that policy could be tightened further if these risks materialize and delay progress toward the inflation target.