Uzbekistan Holds Benchmark Rate at 14%

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its key policy rate unchanged at 14% at its April 2026 meeting, maintaining a tight monetary stance amid persistent inflation pressures. While headline inflation eased to 7.1% in March, the pace of disinflation slowed due to persistent price pressures and external factors. Inflation is expected to moderate to 6.5% by year-end, partly due to base effects. However, policymakers cited rising external risks from geopolitical tensions, including higher oil and food prices and logistics costs, which could feed into import inflation. Meanwhile, economic activity remained strong, with GDP growing 8.7% in Q1 2026, driven by services, construction, and trade. Investment inflows, including FDI, continue to support growth, prompting a revision of the 2026 forecast to 7–7.5%. The central bank signaled it will maintain tight conditions to anchor expectations and stands ready to tighten further if inflation risks intensify.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its key interest rate unchanged at 14% during its March 2026 meeting, signaling a cautious stance amid persistent inflation. Policymakers noted that the recent decline in headline inflation has slowed, with the rate holding broadly steady at 7.3% in February due to rising food prices, while core inflation has begun to trend upward, reaching 6.3%. Economic activity also remained robust, supported by strong aggregate demand. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions pose upside risks to inflation, as disruptions to global supply chains could drive up energy and food prices, while shifts in logistics routes may increase transportation costs. Thus, the central bank deemed it necessary to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to ensure price stability and anchor inflation expectations. The Board also signaled that policy could be tightened further if these risks materialize and delay progress toward the inflation target.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan held its key interest rate at 14% at its January 28, 2026 meeting, citing stronger-than-expected economic activity and a continued disinflation trend. Headline inflation eased to 7.3% in December, supported by tight monetary policy, a stronger exchange rate, and slower core price growth, though services inflation and food prices remain elevated. Inflation expectations ticked slightly higher, prompting the bank to maintain restrictive policy while projecting a decline toward 6.5% by year-end and a medium-term target of 5%. Economic activity in 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by aggregate demand, investment, fiscal spending, and remittances, with GDP growth in 2026 forecast at 6.5–7%. The central bank will continue monitoring inflation, demand, and external risks to ensure price stability and preserve purchasing power. The next policy review is scheduled for March 18, 2026.