Thailand CPI Unexpectedly Falls

Consumer prices in Thailand jumped 2.89% year-on-year in April 2026, rebounding sharply from a 0.08% fall in March and beating market expectations of a 1.5% rise. This marked the first increase in consumer prices after a year of declines and the highest reading since February 2023, as the war in the Middle East pushed up costs for fuel, transport, rent, and consumer goods. Inflation is now close to the upper end of the central bank’s 1%–3% target range. Thailand’s heavy reliance on oil and gas imports from the Persian Gulf has left the country highly exposed to global energy market volatility. The Bank of Thailand projects inflation to average 2.9% in 2026 and then ease to 1.5% in 2027 as supply constraints gradually subside. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 2.75%, accelerating from 0.6% rise in March. Annual core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, rose to a nine-month high of 0.83% in April from 0.57% in March, exceeding market forecasts of 0.60%.

Consumer prices in Thailand edged down 0.08% in March 2026, easing from a 0.88% decline in February and defying forecasts of a 0.20% gain. This marked a year-long deflation, the longest stretch since the pandemic, but the softest decline in that sequence. Inflation remains well below the central bank's 1%-3% target range. Thailand’s reliance on crude oil imports from the Middle East has exposed the country to higher energy costs, with domestic diesel prices surging 36% since late February. The Bank of Thailand now expects inflation to return to its target range faster than previously projected, partly due to rising oil prices, though it had earlier anticipated that headline inflation would only reach target levels in the second half of 2027. Meanwhile, core consumer prices, which exclude volatile items such as food and energy, rose 0.57%, slightly above February’s 0.56% increase but below the expected 0.70%, marking the smallest growth since July 2024.

Consumer prices in Thailand fell 0.88% year-on-year in February 2026, exceeding expectations of a 0.50% decline and accelerating from January’s 0.66% drop. This marked the eleventh consecutive month of deflation, the longest stretch since the pandemic, and the sharpest in the sequence, keeping inflation well below the central bank’s 1%–3% target range. The government forecasts that March headline CPI may fall at a slower pace than February and noted that headline inflation could reach the target this year, depending on the Middle East conflict and its impact on oil prices. The ministry added that the country is not in deflation, as core inflation remains positive. Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile items such as food and energy, rose 0.56% year-on-year, slightly above the anticipated 0.50% increase but down from January’s 0.60% gain, marking the smallest rise since July 2024.