Thailand Industrial Output Falls More Than Expected

Thailand’s industrial production fell 3.10% year-on-year in June 2026, following an upwardly revised 1.30% decline in May, marking the third consecutive month of contraction. It was the steepest decline since last November, amid higher oil prices and rising freight costs due to disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. The decline was mainly driven by weaker production of automobiles (-12.59%), petroleum products (-7.97%), and apparel (-8.99%). Latest data showed that car production fell 7.55% from a year earlier in June. Meanwhile, palm oil production also slumped 33.2% year-on-year. However, continued growth in demand for electronics and technology-related products helped limit the decline, with production of computers and peripherals rising 2.5%. For the first half of the year, industrial production fell 0.4% from a year earlier. Thailand's Industry Ministry maintained its forecast for factory output growth of 1.0% to 2.0% this year. Monthly, industrial output fell 2.37%.

Thailand’s industrial production dropped 0.80% year-on-year in May 2026, worse than market expectations of a 0.48% decline. It marked the second consecutive month of contraction in industrial production, following an upwardly revised 0.94% fall in April, which was the steepest decline since last November, amid higher oil prices, rising transport costs, and shortages of some raw materials due to disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. The decline was mainly driven by lower automotive production and elevated inflation. Monday's data showed that car production plunged 17.94% from a year earlier in May. Last month, Thailand's industry expected factory output to increase by 1.0% to 2.0% for the full year, down from the earlier forecast range of 1.5% to 2.5%.

Thailand’s industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.36% year-on-year in April 2026, defying market expectations of a 0.2% rise and reversing an upwardly revised 1 .3% increase in the previous month. It was the first decline in industrial production since last November, mainly weighed down by a drop in automotive manufacturing, amid higher oil prices and disruptions caused by the ongoing Middle East conflict. Thailand’s industry ministry said that the war in the Middle East and higher costs pressured industry profits. Tourism, a key economic driver, also weakened, impacting related industries. Monday’s data showed car production dropped 0.44% from a year earlier to a near six-year low of 103,794 units, primarily due to disruptions in export markets stemming from the ongoing war in the Middle East. However, the outlook for May should improve on a month-on-month basis. Thai factory output for the full year was seen up 1.0% to 2.0%, lower than the 1.5% to 2.5% range seen earlier.