Thailand Industrial Output Unexpectedly Drops

Thailand’s industrial production unexpectedly grew 2.52% year-on-year in December 2025, outperforming forecasts of a 0.9% drop and recovering from a downwardly revised 3.85% fall in November. It marked the strongest growth in industrial production since April 2024, boosted by auto production, industrial export growth, and government measures. Output expansions were seen in basic iron and steel (15.54%), electronic components and boards (10.52%), automotive (5.02%), food (2.20%), computers and peripherals (0.75%), and petroleum refining (0.55%). Meanwhile, production contractions were recorded in apparel production excluding garment stores (-7.81%), and rubber & plastics (-0.95%). However, for the full year of 2025, the index fell 0.78% as the strong baht eroded Thailand’s export competitiveness. On a monthly basis, industrial output rose 2.33% in December, after a downwardly revised 1.66% drop in November.

Thailand’s industrial production dropped by 4.24% year-on-year in November 2025, missing market forecasts of a 0.8% increase and slipping further from a 0.08% fall in October. Main downward pressure came from a weaker petroleum output, while a sharply stronger baht weighed on export competitiveness by pushing up prices abroad. The currency has risen about 10% against the US dollar this year, adding pressure on manufacturers. Output was also disrupted by flooding in southern regions and softer tourism activity. These headwinds were partly offset by solid export demand, stronger auto production, and government support measures. Notably, vehicle output rose around 11% from a year earlier, keeping Thailand on track to meet its full-year production target. Despite the November setback, authorities left their outlook unchanged, expecting factory output to decline modestly in 2025 before returning to growth in 2026.

Thailand’s industrial production edged down 0.08% yoy in October 2025, outperforming forecasts of a 0.6% fall and reversing an upwardly revised 1.19% rise in September. It marked the fifth drop in industrial output so far this year, as ongoing US trade policy continued to pressure Thailand’s industrial and processed agriculture sectors, weighing on industrial confidence. Output declines were seen in apparel production excluding garment stores (-6.09%), petroleum refining (-2.41%), and rubber and plastics (-5.06%). Meanwhile, production growth was recorded in automotive (9.11%), electronic components and boards (12.38%), basic iron and steel (7.74%), computers and peripherals (11.78%), and food (0.80%). For the full year, the Industry Ministry maintains its outlook for a 0.75% contraction in factory output but expects a rebound in 2026, forecasting growth in the range of 1% to 2%. Monthly, industrial output fell 0.23% in October, reversing an upwardly revised 3.54 % gain in September.