Thailand Q1 GDP Growth Rate Above Forecasts

Thailand’s economy shrank 0.6% qoq in Q3 2025, missing market consensus of a 0.3% fall and reversing a downwardly revised 0.5% growth in Q2. It marked the first quarterly drop in near three years and the steepest pace since Q3 2021, due to internal and external headwinds, as well as the transition to new leadership under PM Anutin Charnvirakul, with government support measures having limited impact. Private consumption grew the least in seven quarters (0.5% vs 0.6% in Q2), as high household debt persisted. Government spending fell (-2.4% vs 0.1%), weighed by a plunge in social transfers. However, fixed investment rose for the first time in four quarters (5.4% vs -1.1%). Net trade added positively, with exports continuing to rise (0.4% vs 1.2%) while imports shrank (-0.5% vs 5.1%). By sector, agriculture shrank for the first time since Q2 2024 (-3.1% vs 0.2%). Non-agriculture output also shrank (-0.3% vs 0.5%), rattled by weaker industrial activity, though services growth accelerated.

Thailand’s economy grew by 0.6% qoq in Q2 2025, exceeding market forecasts of 0.3% and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of expansion, though slightly below Q1's reading of 0.7%. The latest result reflected weaker private consumption (0.2% vs 0.6% in Q1) amid high household debt. Meanwhile, government spending rose for the first time in three quarters (0.4% vs -1.3%), supported by a rebound in social transfers. Net trade also contributed positively, with exports increasing at a slightly faster pace (2.1% vs 1.9%) as firms accelerated shipments ahead of higher U.S. tariffs, while imports rebounded strongly (5.4% vs -1.8%). At the same time, fixed investment continued to shrink but at a softer rate (-1.9% vs -2.3%). By sector, the agriculture sector lost momentum (0.5% vs 3.4%), posting its slowest increase in three quarters. Meanwhile, non-agriculture activity quickened (0.6% vs 0.3%), mainly led by a recovery in industry (1.5% vs 0.2%), as services growth slowed (0.2% vs 0.4%).

Thailand’s economy expanded by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 of 2025, slightly above market forecasts of 0.6% and accelerating from a 0.4% rise in Q4 of 2024. This marked the fifth consecutive period of quarterly expansion, primarily driven by private consumption (0.7% v. 0.6% in Q4) and net trade. Exports rose (2.0% vs 3.0%), mainly to the US, signaling anticipated frontloading before the latest US tariffs took effect, while imports declined (-2.4% vs 2.3%) due to weakening domestic demand amid broader economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, both government spending (-1.4% vs -0.2%) and fixed investment (-2.2% vs -2.0%) declined at a faster pace. On the production side, non-agricultural output moderated (0.3% vs 0.4%) as a result of steeper declines in industrial activity (-0.6% vs -0.4%) and subdued growth in services (0.6% vs 1.4%). In contrast, agricultural output increased by 3.4%, up from 1.7% in Q4.