Thailand Q2 GDP Annual Growth Weakest in 3 Quarters

Thailand’s GDP expanded 1.9% yoy in Q2 2026, slowing from 2.8% in Q1 but surpassing forecasts of 1.7%. It marked the weakest growth since Q3 2025, amid softer increases in private consumption (1.9% vs 3.3% in Q1), government spending (0.2% vs 3.4%), and fixed investment (9.1% vs 9.9%), with government spending slowing due to a slowdown in purchases of goods and services and social transfers in kind. On the trade front, both exports (12.5% vs 12.4%) and imports (24.2% vs 21.4%) accelerated sharply. By production, non-agricultural activity eased (2.0% vs. 2.9% in Q1), driven by expansions in the industrial sector (1.1%) and services sector (2.4%), led by mining, quarrying, and utilities. At the same time, agriculture also moderated (1.5% vs. 2.0%), primarily due to higher yields of fruits, sugarcane, rubber, cattle, and swine, while oil palm, paddy, and fishery production declined. The government revised its GDP forecast for this year to the 2.0%–2.5% range, from 1.5%–2.5% previously.

Thailand’s GDP advanced 2.8% yoy in Q1 2026, accelerating from 2.5% in Q4 and surpassing market forecasts of 2.2%. It marked the strongest growth since Q3 2025, mainly driven by faster increases in government spending (3.4% vs 1.3% in Q4), due to higher purchases of goods and services and social transfers in kind, as well as fixed investment (9.9% vs 8.1%). On the trade front, both exports (12.6% vs 5.6%) and imports (21.1% vs 9.5%) accelerated sharply. Meanwhile, private consumption growth eased slightly (3.2% vs 3.3%). By production, non-agricultural activity quickened (3.0% vs 2.7% in Q4), driven by expansions in the industrial sector (1.8%) and services sector (3.6%), led by mining, quarrying, and construction. Meanwhile, agriculture also accelerated (1.2% vs 0.6%), primarily due to higher yields of sugarcane, rubber, oil palm, maize, fruits, and broiler production. The government maintained its GDP forecast for this year in the 1.5%–2.5% range, with exports expected to rise 9.6%.

Thailand’s GDP expanded 2.5% yoy in Q4 2025, accelerating from Q3's four-year low of 1.2% and topping market forecasts of 1%. Private consumption rose the most in a year (3.3% vs 2.5% in Q3), supported by ongoing Bangkok's support measures. At the same time, government spending increased 1.3%, after falling 3.9% previously. Meanwhile, fixed investment picked up sharply (8.1% vs 1.4%). On the trade front, exports slowed (5.6% vs 7.6%) while imports accelerated (9.1% vs 5.9%). By production, non-agriculture quickened (2.7% vs 1.2%), with industrial output rebounding amid growth in mining and manufacturing. Also, services activity quickened, led by construction, wholesale and retail trade, financials, and transport. Meanwhile, the agriculture eased (0.3% vs 2.1%), reflecting a slowdown in agriculture, forestry, and fishing. The economy is expected to grow between 1.5% to 2.5% this year.