Thailand Consumer Mood Improves on New Government

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce's consumer confidence index climbed to 52.8 in January 2026 from 51.9 in the previous month. The increase was supported by higher exports and optimism about a new government. The ruling Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) won a clear victory in Sunday’s general election. The win raised the prospect that a more stable coalition may now succeed in bringing an end to a period of prolonged political instability. The BJT, led by incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, was on track to capture the most seats in the 500-seat lower house and is now negotiating with minor parties to form a coalition. The latest data showed that Thailand’s exports surged 16.8% yoy to a three-month high of USD 28.93 billion in December 2025, marking the 18th consecutive month of expansion and the fastest increase in outbound shipments since September 2025. For the full year of 2025, exports rose 12.9% to USD 339.64 billion.

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce's consumer confidence index declined to 51.9 in December 2025 from 53.2 in the previous month, which was the highest reading in six months. The decline came amid a rising cost of living and concerns over the impact of floods in several provinces. The fall in agricultural prices also pressured sentiment, as it affected purchasing power in some areas across different provinces in the short term. Consumers are also concerned about Thailand's GDP outlook amid an appreciating currency, the impact of new US tariffs, high household debt, and political uncertainty ahead of elections in early February. Data from the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council showed that in the first three quarters of 2025, the economy expanded by 2.4%, and it was expected to grow by 2% for the full year, down from 2.5% in 2024. Meanwhile, the economy is projected to grow in the range of 1.2%–2.2%, with a median estimate of 1.7%.

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce's consumer confidence index jumped to 53.2 in November 2025, from 51.9 in the previous month. This marked the highest reading since May, buoyed by government policies and domestic tourism. The government has rolled out a series of stimulus measures aimed at revitalizing the economy, including a 44-billion-baht ($1.43 billion) consumer subsidy program. However, consumers remained cautious amid a slow overall economic recovery and persistently high living costs. Adding to the risks that worried consumers were the ongoing flooding in southern Thailand, which could slow economic growth to just 2% in 2025 and between 1.6% and 2% in 2026, the trade war, and tensions with Cambodia. These factors continued to threaten consumer confidence in both the short and medium term.