Thailand Consumer Morale at 6-Month High

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce's consumer confidence index declined to 51.9 in December 2025 from 53.2 in the previous month, which was the highest reading in six months. The decline came amid a rising cost of living and concerns over the impact of floods in several provinces. The fall in agricultural prices also pressured sentiment, as it affected purchasing power in some areas across different provinces in the short term. Consumers are also concerned about Thailand's GDP outlook amid an appreciating currency, the impact of new US tariffs, high household debt, and political uncertainty ahead of elections in early February. Data from the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council showed that in the first three quarters of 2025, the economy expanded by 2.4%, and it was expected to grow by 2% for the full year, down from 2.5% in 2024. Meanwhile, the economy is projected to grow in the range of 1.2%–2.2%, with a median estimate of 1.7%.

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce's consumer confidence index jumped to 53.2 in November 2025, from 51.9 in the previous month. This marked the highest reading since May, buoyed by government policies and domestic tourism. The government has rolled out a series of stimulus measures aimed at revitalizing the economy, including a 44-billion-baht ($1.43 billion) consumer subsidy program. However, consumers remained cautious amid a slow overall economic recovery and persistently high living costs. Adding to the risks that worried consumers were the ongoing flooding in southern Thailand, which could slow economic growth to just 2% in 2025 and between 1.6% and 2% in 2026, the trade war, and tensions with Cambodia. These factors continued to threaten consumer confidence in both the short and medium term.

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s consumer confidence index climbed to 51.9 in October 2025 from 50.7 in September. It marked the second consecutive monthly increase and the highest level since June, supported by the government’s extensive measures to revive the economy. The upturn also coincided with a US tariff cut on Thai imports to 19% from 36%, though uncertainty lingers over duties on transshipments routed through Thailand. In Q2, the Southeast Asian economy expanded 2.8% year-on-year, beating the consensus estimate of 2.5% despite easing from a 3.2% rise in Q1. Last month, the Fiscal Policy Office upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.4%, up from an earlier projection of 2.2%, amid a significant boost from year-end government stimulus measures and a strong expansion in merchandise exports, which are now expected to grow by a robust 10.0%.