Thailand Business Morale at Near 5-Year Low

Thailand’s Business Sentiment Index fell to 42.5 in May 2026 from 43.5 in the previous month. This marked the lowest level since August 2021, weighed down by the prolonged Middle East conflict. Sentiment continued to deteriorate for production (44 vs 48.2 in April), performance (43.7 vs 47), overall order books (43.6 vs 44.2), and export conditions (45 vs 46.4). By sector, manufacturing sentiment softened across several industries, led by the automotive sector, where production and performance sub-indices fell sharply amid intensifying competition in vehicle sales. The food and beverage industry also faced mounting pressures, as packaging costs remained 30% to 50% higher than pre-conflict levels and elevated freight rates continued to delay orders from Middle Eastern markets. Meanwhile, sentiment in the non-manufacturing sector remained broadly unchanged from the previous month. The three-month expected Business Sentiment Index rose to 46.9 in May from 40.9 in April.

Thailand Business Sentiment Index fell to 43.5 in April 2026 from 47.7 in the previous month, as Middle East war disruptions weighed on activity. This marked the lowest level since September 2021, led by weakness in production costs (21.6 vs 34.2 in March) and performance (47.0 vs 51.0). Sentiment weakened across overall order books (44.2 vs 47.9), production (48.2 vs 51.3), and investment (49.6 vs 51.8), while export conditions were less negative (46.4 vs 45.5). The manufacturing index weakened, led by the petrochemical and plastics industries, which were particularly hit due to tighter supply of upstream feedstocks. The hotel and restaurant sector also deteriorated, with sentiment falling to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by reduced long-haul tourist arrivals amid fewer flights, higher airfares, and heightened safety concerns. The 3-month expected BSI dropped to 40.9, reflecting concerns over a potentially prolonged situation.

Thailand’s Business Sentiment Index fell to 47.7 in March 2026, the lowest level in seven months, down from 49.6 in February, as sentiment was weighed down by the impact of the Middle East conflict. Total order books contracted (47.9 vs 52.2) and export conditions weakened (45.5 vs 48.2) while output prices went up (50.6 vs 49.7). The hotel and restaurant sector was particularly hit, with sentiment falling to an eight-month low, owing to cancellations of flight tickets and hotel bookings by Middle Eastern tourists, along with the suspension of direct flights from Middle Eastern airlines to Thailand. Also, the manufacturing index weakened, led by plastics pellets and packaging industries, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices higher, affecting transportation costs and imported feed stocks for plastic manufacturing, such as crude oil and naphtha. Also, the 3-month expected BSI dropped to 44.2, reflecting concerns over a potentially prolonged situation.