Thailand Business Morale Weakens in December

Thailand’s business confidence indicator fell to 49.8 in December 2025 from 50 in November, slipping below the threshold and signaling a deterioration in business sentiment. Expectations for performance edged below 50, showing a mild shift toward pessimism (49.9 vs 51.4), while production cost expectations remained negative (42.4 vs 42.5). Optimism declined for production (51.4 vs 51.6), investment (51.8 vs 52), and order books (51.5 vs 52). In contrast, employment outlook improved (51.6 vs 50). By sector, manufacturing grew on front-loaded exports in food, electrical appliances, and rubber, while non-manufacturing surged, led by hotels, restaurants, and retail, supported by government tourism stimulus. The three-month forward-looking sentiment index rose to 54.4 from 53.4, the highest since September 2023.

Thailand’s business confidence indicator turned neutral at 50 in November 2025, from 48.7 in the previous month. The latest reading ended seven consecutive months of pessimism, with sentiment strengthening in performance (51.4 vs 51.2), production (51.6 vs 50.2), employment (50 vs 49.6), investment (52 vs 51.8), and overall order books (50 vs 47.7). By sector, the non-manufacturing index strengthened sharply, led by the hotel and restaurant industry and the retail sector. Meanwhile, the manufacturing index remained stable, as the food industry performed well, mainly aided by the Half-Half Plus scheme and supply disruptions caused by flooding in various regions. However, confidence in the automotive industry declined, driven by weaker production and performance sub-indices. Looking ahead, the three-month forward-looking business sentiment index rose to 53.4 in November from 52.5 in October, reaching its highest level since February 2024.

Thailand's business confidence indicator rose to 48.7 in October 2025 from 48 in September, marking the highest level since March. Sentiment improved across most components, particularly performance (51.2 vs 47.2 in September), production (50.2 vs 48.8), employment (49.6 vs 49), and overall order books (47.7 vs 47.4). By sector, the non-manufacturing index increased, led by the hotel and restaurant and passenger transportation industry amid the start of the tourism season and stronger long-haul arrivals. Retail trade confidence also strengthened, supported by the government’s “Half-Half Plus" co-payment scheme ahead of year-end spending. Meanwhile, the manufacturing index was broadly stable, with stronger optimism in autos offset by weaker outlook in food and electrical appliances due to reciprocal tariffs and stronger import competition. Looking ahead, the three-month forward-looking business sentiment index rose to an eight-month high of 52.5 in October from 52 in the previous month.