Tajikistan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Tajikistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Tajikistan economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.20 2.6 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.7 percent
Inflation Rate 1.90 5.8 6 6.2 6.8 5.2 percent
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 12 12 8 percent
Balance of Trade -130.40 -165 -162 -200 -162 -235 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 47.80 40 40 40 38 37 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 8.98
9.1 9.4 9.72 10.04 11.44
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.00
percent
6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.5
GDP 6.95
USD Billion
6.85 6.62 6.4 6 5.8
GDP Constant Prices 12350.10
TJS Million
25657 45344 65309 65309 73936
GDP per capita 968.40
USD
977 1054 995 1085 1100
GDP per capita PPP 2762.60
USD
2766 2795 2823 2886 2822
GDP From Agriculture 22234.00
TJS Million
23746 23768 25456 23768 28818
GDP From Construction 6091.70
TJS Million
6506 6512 6974 6512 7896
GDP From Manufacturing 9366.90
TJS Million
10004 10013 10724 10013 12141
GDP From Services 8870.90
TJS Million
9474 9483 10156 9483 11498
GDP From Transport 6248.20
TJS Million
6673 6679 7154 6679 8099
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.20
percent
2.6 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.7
Unemployed Persons 52.30
Thousand
52.55 52.71 52.64 52.73 52.66
Employed Persons 2237.50
Thousand
2238 2238 2238 2238 2238
Wages 1228.10
TJS/Month
1400 1450 1500 1400 1700
Population 8.70
Million
8.78 8.84 8.9 8.96 9.81
Wages In Manufacturing 1379.10
TJS/Month
1400 1340 1460 1450 1600
Retirement Age Men 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
5.8 6 6.2 6.8 5.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.50
Index Points
106 106 107 107 118
Producer Prices 100.50
Index Points
100 102 100 99.5 106
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.5 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57
Producer Prices Change -1.00
percent
0.14 0.47 3.9 0.51 2.7
Food Inflation 0.90
percent
0.5 1.2 2 3.5 5.5
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 14.00
percent
14 14 12 12 8
Money Supply M0 10422.44
TJS Thousand
10432 10440 10446 10449 10450
Money Supply M1 11977.67
TJS Thousand
12106 12179 12204 12210 12212
Money Supply M2 13600.52
TJS Thousand
13721 13812 13858 13881 13902
Deposit Interest Rate 4.20
percent
4.28 4.14 4 4.04 6.53
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -130.40
USD Million
-165 -162 -200 -162 -235
Exports 85.90
USD Million
90.75 91.85 92 92.14 110
Imports 216.30
USD Million
256 254 292 254 345
Current Account -52950.30
USD Thousand
70635 70635 70635 70635 70635
Current Account to GDP 1.80
percent
-5 -5 -5 -4 -3
Gold Reserves 15.60
Tonnes
16.02 16.48 16.9 17.32 21.75
Terrorism Index 2.43
2.7 2.95 3.19 3.11 2.45
Crude Oil Production 0.18
BBL/D/1K
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
External Debt 2274.10
USD Million
2367 2424 2482 2512 2829
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.80
percent
40 40 40 38 37
Government Budget -1.70
percent of GDP
-2.24 -2.63 -3.03 -3.28 -4.97
Government Revenues 2741.00
TJS Million
11366 9154 7558 6406 3491
Military Expenditure 79.90
USD Million
82.05 84.44 86.83 85.66 85.86
Government Budget Value 369.10
TJS Million
-16417 -18525 -8472 -13725 -17037
Fiscal Expenditure 2371.90
TJS Million
27784 27679 24898 20131 20527
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Industrial Production 13.10
percent
12.04 11.16 10.48 9.96 8.33
Internet Speed 2588.66
KBps
1240 1790 2184 2512 2025
IP Addresses 9376.00
IP
9008 8950 8955 8944 8859
Ease of Doing Business 123.00
121 119 118 117 111
Corruption Index 21.00
Points
21 20 19 20 23
Corruption Rank 161.00
161 161 161 161 161
Competitiveness Index 4.14
Points
4.13 4.13 4.13 4.13 4.13
Competitiveness Rank 79.00
78 78 78 78 78
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Retail Sales Yoy 6.40
percent
10.22 11.36 12.5 13.64 6.62
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent
13 13 13 13 13
Social Security Rate 26.00
percent
26 26 26 26 26
Social Security Rate For Companies 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 26.18
mm
50.81 3.83 42.04 62.59 40.68
Temperature -5.95
celsius
9.91 14.72 -1.82 -6.75 4.11