Tajikistan | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Tajikistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Tajikistan economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.20 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.70 7.2 6.5 6.2 11.2 5.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 16.00 16 14 14 14 8 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -183.50 -169 -163 -159 -155 -130 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 35.30 42 40 40 37.42 37 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 8.81 8.71 8.62 8.54 8.45 7.48 [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.00 6.7 7 6.8 6.9 6.5 percent [+]
GDP 6.95 6.9 6.87 6.85 6.82 6.6 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 42416.80 53882 11044 23836 42368 52224 TJS Million [+]
GDP per capita 968.40 979 981 982 984 961 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 2762.60 2823 2840 2856 2872 2886 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 22234.00 19438 21514 23591 25667 30458 TJS Million [+]
GDP From Construction 5380.40 5932 6023 6115 6206 6944 TJS Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 9366.90 13598 14573 15548 16523 20292 TJS Million [+]
GDP From Services 6637.00 7216 7350 7484 7618 9122 TJS Million [+]
GDP From Transport 6026.10 5625 5521 5417 5313 3258 TJS Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.20 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2237.50 2152 2131 2111 2092 1940 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 50.40 50.31 49.92 49.61 49.33 47.62 Thousand [+]
Wages 1143.70 1244 1218 1194 1170 997 TJS/Month [+]
Population 8.70 8.91 8.97 9.03 9.08 9.61 Million [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 1346.32 1335 1330 1324 1319 1275 TJS/Month [+]
Retirement Age Men 63.00 63 63 63 63 63 [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58 [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 6.70 7.2 6.5 6.2 11.2 5.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.40 101 102 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 99.50 102 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.40 0.89 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.80 3.5 2.52 2.57 2.58 2.7 percent [+]
Food Inflation 8.30 10.61 11.59 12.23 12.62 13.24 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 16.00 16 14 14 14 8 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 10768.70 11659 12339 12734 12950 12601 TJS Thousand [+]
Money Supply M1 11732.07 12418 12897 13115 13194 12695 TJS Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 13111.38 13513 13921 14103 14166 13673 TJS Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 4.20 5.16 5.61 6.06 6.51 11.17 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -183.50 -169 -163 -159 -155 -130 USD Million [+]
Exports 82.60 88 81.71 82.67 83.37 110 USD Million [+]
Imports 266.10 249 243 239 236 345 USD Million [+]
Current Account -5909.70 -52782 -56927 -22291 -8303 -45370 USD Thousand [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.80 -6 -5 -5 -5.58 -3 percent [+]
Remittances 3638.00 1949 1869 1798 1734 1384 USD Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 12.66 12.9 12.78 12.78 12.74 12.36 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 3.09 1.79 1.85 1.91 1.98 1.68 [+]
Crude Oil Production 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.24 BBL/D/1K [+]
External Debt 2274.10 2400 2412 2424 2437 2447 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 35.30 42 40 40 37.42 37 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.70 -3.17 -3.43 -3.69 -3.95 -5.45 percent of GDP [+]
Government Revenues 14078.90 7605 5901 4844 4195 3170 TJS Million [+]
Military Expenditure 95.80 73.71 71.42 69.12 66.83 58.79 USD Million [+]
Government Budget Value 274.40 208 194 183 176 160 TJS Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 13804.50 7297 5628 4608 3988 3043 TJS Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Industrial Production 22.20 17.53 15.13 13.34 12 8.4 percent [+]
Internet Speed 2588.66 2451 2409 2368 2329 2044 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 9376.00 9116 9113 8968 8871 8228 IP [+]
Ease of Doing Business 123.00 124 121 119 118 114 [+]
Corruption Index 25.00 23 23 23 22 23 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 151.00 140 141 142 143 142 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.14 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.05 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 79.00 77 77 77 77 91 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Retail Sales Yoy 6.40 12.5 13.64 14.77 15.9 10.52 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00 13 13 13 13 13 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 26.00 26 26 26 26 26 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature -5.00 -3.33 0.32 10.49 6.77 -1.25 celsius [+]