Tajikistan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Tajikistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Tajikistan economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.20 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.7 2.7 percent
Inflation Rate 7.00 6.5 6.2 8.2 4.7 5.2 percent
Interest Rate 16.00 14 14 14 12 8 percent
Balance of Trade 77.10 -62.63 -62.26 -64.88 -67.31 -79.21 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 35.30 40 40 36.25 40 37 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 8.82
9.11 9.41 9.72 10.04 11.44
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.00
percent
7 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.5
GDP 6.95
USD Billion
7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.6
GDP Constant Prices 42416.80
TJS Million
11044 23836 42368 53311 52224
GDP per capita 968.40
USD
952 961 970 979 961
GDP per capita PPP 2762.60
USD
2738 2766 2795 2823 2886
GDP From Agriculture 22234.00
TJS Million
13811 15686 17562 19438 30458
GDP From Construction 6091.70
TJS Million
6156 6295 6435 6575 7792
GDP From Manufacturing 9366.90
TJS Million
9575 10916 12257 13598 20292
GDP From Services 8870.90
TJS Million
7767 8361 8955 9549 13760
GDP From Transport 6248.20
TJS Million
5956 6078 6201 6324 5276
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.20
percent
2.7 2.6 2.3 2.7 2.7
Unemployed Persons 51.50
Thousand
51.14 50.78 50.43 50.1 47.66
Employed Persons 2237.50
Thousand
2131 2111 2092 2073 1940
Wages 1174.70
TJS/Month
1133 1109 1086 1064 864
Population 8.70
Million
8.72 8.78 8.85 8.91 9.61
Wages In Manufacturing 1286.28
TJS/Month
1309 1310 1308 1304 1267
Retirement Age Men 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 7.00
percent
6.5 6.2 8.2 4.7 5.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.30
Index Points
101 102 102 102 103
Producer Prices 103.30
Index Points
103 103 103 103 103
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.6 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59
Producer Prices Change -0.50
percent
2.3 2.5 2.55 3.9 2.7
Food Inflation 8.10
percent
10.47 11.51 12.16 12.55 13.17
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 16.00
percent
14 14 14 12 8
Money Supply M0 10537.55
TJS Thousand
10554 10495 10432 10366 9849
Money Supply M1 11625.55
TJS Thousand
11782 11771 11730 11678 11201
Money Supply M2 13078.18
TJS Thousand
13394 13435 13421 13380 12872
Deposit Interest Rate 4.20
percent
5.72 5.54 5.35 5.16 11.17
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 77.10
USD Million
-62.63 -62.26 -64.88 -67.31 -79.21
Exports 291.80
USD Million
145 128 117 92 110
Imports 214.70
USD Million
227 223 221 292 345
Current Account -5909.70
USD Thousand
-56927 -22291 -8303 -47429 -45370
Current Account to GDP -3.80
percent
-5 -5 -4.1 -5 -3
Gold Reserves 15.14
Tonnes
14.41 14.73 14.89 14.65 14.36
Terrorism Index 2.43
2.11 2.18 2.26 2.33 1.73
Crude Oil Production 0.20
BBL/D/1K
0.2 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.23
External Debt 2274.10
USD Million
2236 2291 2345 2400 2447
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 35.30
percent
40 40 36.25 40 37
Government Budget -1.70
percent of GDP
-2.07 -2.44 -2.81 -3.17 -5.45
Government Revenues 15711.00
TJS Million
9047 7057 5752 4897 3323
Military Expenditure 95.80
USD Million
70.57 71.62 72.66 73.71 58.79
Government Budget Value 299.60
TJS Million
232 211 196 185 162
Fiscal Expenditure 15411.40
TJS Million
8679 6727 5463 4645 3187
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Industrial Production 21.30
percent
16.28 14.27 12.76 11.63 8.56
Internet Speed 2588.66
KBps
2409 2368 2329 2292 2044
IP Addresses 9376.00
IP
9113 8968 8871 8823 8228
Ease of Doing Business 123.00
122 121 119 118 114
Corruption Index 25.00
Points
25 24 24 23 23
Corruption Rank 151.00
140 140 140 140 142
Competitiveness Index 4.14
Points
4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.05
Competitiveness Rank 79.00
77 77 77 77 91
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Retail Sales Yoy 6.40
percent
9.07 10.22 11.36 12.5 10.52
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent
13 13 13 13 13
Social Security Rate 26.00
percent
26 26 26 26 26
Social Security Rate For Companies 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 26.18
mm
62.47 50.81 3.83 42.04 40.68
Temperature -5.95
celsius
-6.74 9.91 14.72 -1.82 4.11