Philippine GDP Growth Hits Weakest Since 2009 Ex-Covid

The Philippines’ GDP expanded 2.3% year-on-year in Q2 2026, missing expectations that growth would remain at Q1’s 2.8%. This marked the softest economic expansion since Q4 2009, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, as the country continued to contend with an energy shock stemming from the Iran war, compounded by a major corruption scandal. Growth in household consumption eased to 2.8% (vs. 3.0% in Q1), while fixed investment contracted 13.7% (vs. -2.5%), marking the sharpest decline in over five years. Meanwhile, government spending rose 8.3%, compared with 4.8% in Q1. Net trade contributed positively to GDP growth, as exports climbed 12.2% (vs. 0.8%), while imports rose at a softer 5.5% (vs. 6.8%). On the production side, industrial activity contracted 2.4% after a 0.1% rise in Q1, while services growth ticked down to 4.5% from 4.6%. Output in agriculture, forestry and fishing rebounded (2% vs -0.3%).

The Philippines’ GDP expanded 2.8% year-on-year in Q1 2026, missing expectations of 3.5% growth and slowing from a 3.0% expansion in Q4. This marked the softest growth since the contraction in Q1 2021, as the Middle East war-driven oil shock compounded pressures from a major infrastructure graft scandal, pushing the Philippine economy into one of its weakest stretches in 16 years outside the pandemic period. Growth in household consumption eased (3.0% vs 3.8% in Q4), while fixed investment continued to contract (-2.7% vs -6.4%). Meanwhile, government spending accelerated (4.8% vs 0.7%), and net trade contributed positively, with exports rising 7.8% (vs 13.3%) and imports increasing at a slower 6.1% pace (vs 3.2%). On the production side, activity contracted in agriculture, forestry, and fishing (-0.2% vs 1.0%) and industry (-0.1% vs -0.3%), while growth in the services sector slowed (4.5% vs 4.9%). The latest GDP print came in below the government’s 5% to 6% target range.

The Philippines’ GDP grew 3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, below expectations of 3.8% and slowing from 3.9% in the previous quarter. This marked the softest growth since a contraction in Q1 2021, weighed down by fallout from a high-profile infrastructure corruption scandal, a string of devastating typhoons, and trade pressures that affected the Southeast Asian nation. Growth slowed in both government spending (3.7% vs 5.8% in Q3) and household consumption (3.8% vs 4.1%), while fixed investment fell for the first time in over a year (-7.2% vs 0.5%). Meanwhile, net trade contributed positively, as exports climbed 13.2% (vs 7.4%), while imports rose 3.5% (vs 3.2%). On the production side, activity softened in agriculture, forestry, and fishing (1% vs 2.9%) and in services (5.2% vs 5.4%), while industry output contracted (-0.9% vs 0.7%). For the full year 2025, the Philippine economy expanded 4.4%, missing the government’s target of 5.5%–6.5%.