Philippines Business Confidence Turns Negative in March

The Business Confidence Index in the Philippines fell further to -35.8 in April 2026 from -24.3 in the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of decline. The pessimistic sentiment was driven by the US-Iran conflict, which raised concerns that higher inflation could increase firms’ operating costs and erode households’ purchasing power. During the month, sentiment continued to deteriorate regarding financial conditions (-35.3 vs -24.9 in March), order books (-15.6 vs -2.7), and access to credit (-9.9 vs -7.1), while the volume of business activity fell sharply to -15.3 from a 2.2 increase in the prior month. Meanwhile, the business outlook declined at a softer pace (-7.5 vs -17.3), while confidence for the coming year improved (19.5 vs 11.7), supported by expectations of stronger demand, higher sales and income, better economic conditions, and a possible resolution of the Middle East conflict.

The Business Confidence Index in the Philippines turned negative at -24.3 in March 2026, reversing from 8.2 in the previous month. The pessimistic sentiment was driven by the ongoing US–Iran conflict, which pushed domestic fuel prices sharply higher. Additionally, firms cited expectations of weaker consumer spending, as elevated fuel costs continued to feed through into broader prices of basic goods and services. During the month, sentiment continued to weaken regarding financial conditions (-24.9 vs -19.2 in February), access to credit (-7.1 vs -0.6), and order books (-2.7 vs -0.1), while it became less positive regarding the volume of business activity (2.2 vs 3.5). Meanwhile, the business outlook declined notably for the next three months (-17.3 vs 37.4), while confidence softened significantly for the coming year (11.7 vs 51.1).

The Business Confidence Index in the Philippines rose to 29.7 in the fourth quarter of 2025, following a four-year low of 23.2 in the previous three-month period. The improvement was driven by expectations of increased consumer spending during the holiday season. Additionally, firms cited higher firm productivity and operational efficiency, rollout of new products and services, and a favorable inflation environment. During the quarter, sentiment strengthened among retailers (32.2 vs 23.7 in Q3), service providers (39.1 vs 28), and manufacturers (13.6 vs 12.2). Meanwhile, morale deteriorated for constructors (15.5 vs. 31.6). At the same time, the business outlook weakened notably for the next quarter (23.7 vs. 49.5) and the coming year (40.4 vs. 48.1).